AS 224 passengers settled in for take-off on a routine flight, none could have imagined the fiery inferno that would unfold in just minutes.
At 5.58am, the packed Airbus A321 roared down the runway and climbed into the clear sky – before exploding in mid-air, killing everyone on board. An official cause of the crash was never found – but ten years later, an aviation expert reveals what he thinks really happened.
It was just after sunrise when Metrojet Flight 9268 took off from Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh airport heading for Russia on October 31, 2015.
Haunting final pictures on board the aircraft show families smiling as they prepared for take-off – unaware that moments later they would be dead.
Twenty-three minutes into the flight, the aircraft exploded mid-air.
The plane was cruising at 31,000ft when a big blast ripped through its rear fuselage, tearing it apart in seconds – and sending the jet into an “uncontrolled dive”.
All 224 people on board – including 25 children and seven crew members – were killed, including 212 Russians, four Ukrainians, and one Belarusian.
Most passengers died in the air from “severe barotrauma” – rapidly changing air pressure after decompression that has a devastating effect on the human body.
A relative of one of the victims who was asked to identify his loved ones said the majority of the victims were so badly injured that they were unrecognisable.
The relative said: “It is impossible to recognise they were human beings.”
The aircraft plunged into the Sinai desert below in a fiery crash that shocked the world. And ten years later, it remains one of the deadliest aviation disasters of the 21st century.
But Julian Bray, a veteran aviation expert, told The Sun that the cause of the crash could only be one thing.
Julian says: “You have to look at it and say, right, it was a deliberate act.”
Hunt for answers
As investigators swarmed the crash site looking for answers, terrorism was immediately tipped as the most likely cause of the blast – but who could have been behind such an evil act? And what would have been their motivation?
Wreckage pictures showed the plane was ripped in two before it shattered upon impact – such devastating damage could only be caused by a major blast on board the aircraft.
Initial theories speculated it could have been a freak accident caused by a fuel or battery explosion on board.
Russian media outlets even claimed the pilot had reported technical problems at the start of his ascent – but this was denied by Egyptian aviation officials who insisted there were no SOS calls.
Others voiced grave fears that a homemade bomb may have been brought onto the plane by one or more employees at Sharm el-Sheikh airport who had been hired by terrorists.
Egyptian investigators appeared keen to play down reports of any terror attack, with many believing it would expose the nation’s aviation industry’s faults.
A terror attack in Egyptian airspace would also be sure to create panic over future holidaymakers heading to the popular tourist region – where more than one million Brits visit every year.
Lead investigator Ayman al-Muqaddam maintained his belief that terrorism couldn’t be confirmed for months after the crash.
Even after ISIS took credit for planting an explosive device on the plane, Egypt was hesitant about declaring it a targeted strike.
A desperate hunt for answers was launched – but an official cause for the crash was never announced, and to this day it remains an unsolved case.
Now Bray believes investigators were foolish not to recognise the tell-tale signs of a terror attack, with the harrowing truth staring investigators in the face all along.
He says all the signs point to a bomb being used. He believes terrorists used half a kilo of TNT hidden in luggage loaded onto the back of the plane at the last minute.
Speaking to The Sun, he said: “The whole tail section came off. There’s definitely an explosion inside, and I tend to think there was a device on board.
“And it was terrorism. We have a fairly clued-up terrorist group taking responsibility for it.”
Luggage mystery
A furious Russian Federal Security Service carried out its own investigations after the tragedy rocked Moscow.
They deemed it a terrorist attack by mid-November and said explosive residue was found at the crash site.
Bray outlined the mechanics of the attack with grim precision.
He says: “I’m quite convinced that I would have said that a half a kilo of TNT would have done it, because the back end of the plane is quite compact.”
He hints that the bomb was small but devastating.
He adds: “It’s enough to do a lot of damage, enough to fracture fuel lines, take out electrics, cause shorts, cause fires.
“One thing leads to another, and it’s self-perpetuating. Most likely, and the easiest thing is to actually load it into what’s supposed to be checked baggage.”
I’m quite convinced that I would have said that a half a kilo of TNT would have done it, because the back end of the plane is quite compact
Julian Bray
Bray believes those responsible for bringing it on board could have deployed the bomb in several different ways.
“There’s a variety of ways it could be triggered, either by a telephone call, simply scraping another mobile on, there’s a gizmo that sets off the detonator,” he explained.
“Or it could be a timing device, or it could be an altitude-critical device.
“So it reaches a certain height. Then it goes off.
“I tend to think it is very definitely a late-loaded piece of baggage, or a package, or consignment.”
Late luggage is likely to go through fewer checks – meaning suspicious items may have been missed.
Within hours after the incident, Islamic State’s Sinai branch claimed it was behind the blast as they detailed exactly how they carried it out online.
IS boasted in published photos that it had smuggled the device on board in a Schweppes Gold drinks can.
Why ISIS turned on Egypt
WHILE it may seem odd for an Islamic group to target a Muslim country, experts say ISIS had clear reasons for striking at Egypt.
- Egypt’s government, led by President Abel Fattah al-Sisi, had cracked down hard on Islamist groups and was actively fighting ISIS’s Sinai branch; far from being allies, the two sides were locked in a brutal conflict.
- Tourism was one of Egypt’s biggest money spinners – and Sharm el-Sheikh was a jewel in its crown. Hitting the resort meant hitting the state’s coffers, causing chaos without waging a traditional war.
- A successful attack on Egyptian soil made the government look weak, undermining public confidence and embarrassing Cairo on the world stage.
- By bombing a Russian jet departing from Egyptian territory, ISIS could simultaneously hurt Moscow – a key player in the fight against ISIS in Syria – and cripple Egypt’s economy.
- Striking at a Western-style holiday destination sent a powerful message – nowhere was safe. It aimed to scare tourists, spook airlines, and push Egypt into further isolation
They revealed that they originally wanted to target a nation fighting against the IS in Iraq and Syria.
This could have left the UK or the US vulnerable to an attack due to both playing significant roles in fighting against the IS in the region at the time.
The terror group later claimed they had settled on attacking a Russian plane due to Vladimir Putin‘s close support of Syria.
Flight 9268 was targeted as it was heading to St Petersburg, operated by a Russian airline and contained mainly Russian citizens.
But Egypt remained determined to look at all possibilities before blaming IS.
US and British spies would even go on to uncover information that pointed towards a bomb being carried onto the plane.
The US intelligence community said the same patterns are often seen when an explosion erupts, as they suggested a bomb or a fuel tank blast was most likely.
Satellite data backed up the theory. A US defence official revealed that an infrared satellite detected a heat flash at the exact time of the crash – consistent with a bomb.
Russia even called it terrorism – but Egypt still didn’t.
Even as more countries showed their findings with Egypt, an official report wasn’t released on the crash until December.
The Egyptian committee investigating the crash issued a preliminary report saying it had found “no evidence that there is an act of terror or illegal intervention”.
A few months later, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi finally acknowledged the evidence points towards a terror plot.
Four years later, however, Egypt again went against the terror theory.
In March 2020, an Egyptian appeals court ruled that the crash was not an act of terrorism as it dismissed lawsuits against government officials, Metrojet, and Russian insurance company Ingosstrakh.
Mystery deepens
Across the globe, investigators worked tirelessly on the case from Brits, Americans, Russians and Egyptians.
Conflicting reports soon started to emerge about the fateful journey.
Russian media claimed the pilot had reported technical problems as he started the ascent.
Captain Valery Yurievich Nemov, 47, had over 12,000 hours of flight time, which included close to 4,000 on the same aircraft.
Reports said Nemov requested to come in to land at the nearest airport before the A321 went missing from all radars.
But the claim was quickly dismissed and widely disputed by the Egyptian authorities.
Flight data later confirmed the pilot hadn’t suffered any issues until the plane exploded.
A cockpit voice recording was also pulled from the wreckage and indicated no signs of distress before a sudden loud noise was heard, and the recorder cut out.
Bray is equally clear on the motive. “The motive is quite simply to damage the Egyptian economy”.
Politics has caused the Islamic State to resort to terrible things as we’ve seen in the past and I’m pretty certain that this is one of them
Julian Bray
He adds: “And take out Shah el-Sheikh as a tourist destination. Which is a big money spinner for Egypt and also causes Egypt as much political damage as possible.
“If you close down Sharm el-Sheikh, both the airport, you also close down the whole tourist area as well.
“You put it as a destination at the bottom of the list. Also, the insurance liability is horrendous, so it doesn’t make it viable as a destination. This is both economic terrorism and political terrorism.
“None of their people get hurt, but they inflict maximum damage on their enemy, their perceived enemy.
“Politics has caused the Islamic State to resort to terrible things as we’ve seen in the past and I’m pretty certain that this is one of them.”
Ten years on, the memory of the Egypt plane crash still sends shivers through the aviation world.
A decade later, the evidence and expert analysis leave little doubt – the crash wasn’t an accident.
It was calculated, deliberate, and devastating, a stark reminder of how terror can strike at the heart of global travel and economies alike.
