CNN analyst has bad news for Donald Trump as he warns president 'can't be too happy'
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Democrats could be winning the mayoral race in New York City as well as the gubernatorial races in both New Jersey and Virginia on Tuesday
A CNN analyst had bad news for Donald Trump, saying the president "can't be too happy" ahead of the upcoming political races.
While talking to host Erica Hill on Friday, Harry Enten predicted Democratic wins in New York City's mayoral race and gubernatorial races in both New Jersey and Virginia. Citing data from all three races, the chief data analyst said, "If [these races] are a test of Donald Trump, then Donald Trump can't be too happy with what we're seeing in the data right now."
He pointed out that while Republicans think former State Representative Jack Ciattarelli is "closing the gap" in New Jersey, the Democratic candidate, Rep. Mikie Sherrill " has a clear advantage - about six points." He revealed, "That's the closest of the three races we're talking about."
Harry added that in Virginia's gubernatorial race, Democratic candidate Abigail Spanberger is "way up there by double digits - up by 10 points" against Republican candidate and the Virginia Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. He also emphasized that Zohran Mamdani, the Democratic candidate in the NYC mayoral race, is ahead in the polls by 16 points over former Governor Andrew Cuomo. At this point in time, the candidate is even further ahead of Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa.
The analyst said, "At this point in time, to me it seems like the Democrats are most likely going to sweep all three of those races. That's in part because of Donald Trump, but it's also in part because especially in a place like Virginia, they have a much better liked candidate than the Republican candidate."
Erica then asked Harry, "How rare is it in this moment for Democrats to be leading with these margins?" The analyst said it is actually rare for Democrats to sweep all three of these races, saying that after looking at the data, he could only find five instances of this in the past 90 years - in 1953, 1957, 1961, 1989 and 2017.
"It has only happened five times in the last 90 years what seems like it's going to happen this next Tuesday," he said. Harry then added, "The five times that I mentioned that the Democrats swept all of those races, each and every time the following year, they won a majority in the US House of Representatives."
"If Democrats sweep on Tuesday," said Harry, "it, in my opinion, is a very good sign, looking forward to 2026 and taking that majority back from Republicans." Polling places opened last Saturday for the start of in-person voting for the New York City mayor's race and the contest to pick New Jersey's next governor. In Virginia, voters began casting early ballots on September 19.
One of those candidates - Spanberger or Earle-Sears - will become Virginia's first female governor. During a debate earlier this month, they clashed over cultural issues such as the rights of transgender children in sports and school bathrooms.
Early voting runs through November 1 in Virginia and November 2 in New York City and New Jersey. Polling sites in all three states will then open widely for Election Day on November 4.