Al-Qaeda militants poised to take over an entire country

Al-Qaeda is tightening its grip on Mali’s capital in a Taliban-style bid to seize control of the west African nation.

Militants have blocked fuel entry to cities and are closing in on Bamako, raising fears it could become the first country ruled by the terror group in its nearly four-decade history.

Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, has spent weeks targeting fuel convoys bound for the capital.

The military junta that has been ruling Mali since a 2021 coup has shut schools across the country while petrol stations are running dry.

The blockade has hit the capital hard over the past two weeks and brought the landlocked Sahel nation’s economy to a halt.

Sources told The Telegraph that Turkey has been supplying drones, while Russia has become Mali’s main security partner. Turkey’s foreign ministry has been approached for comment.

JNIM forces now seem intent on isolating the capital by stepping up attacks on nearby roads.

Jessica Trachias, lead security analyst at International SOS, a health and security service firm, told The Telegraph: “We are anticipating that the security situation will continue to deteriorate over the coming weeks as JNIM continue to strengthen the fuel blockade and carry out expanded operations throughout the entirety of the country.”

The Foreign Office (FCDO) warned British citizens on Thursday to “leave immediately by commercial flight if you judge it safe to do so”.

Non-essential embassy staff have also been withdrawn from Bamako.

The FCDO said: “Do not try to leave Mali by overland routes to neighbouring countries as this is too dangerous. This is due to terrorist attacks along national highways.”

The United States and several European nations have also urged their citizens to leave immediately as the security situation deteriorates.

The United Arab Emirates confirmed on Friday a £38 million ransom payment to JNIM to secure the release of two hostages held by the militants.

“At the beginning [JNIM] was attacking some businesses and especially some industrial plants, which was really worrying,” said Beatriz de León Cobo, an associate fellow at Royal United Services Institute, a think tank. “But now the fuel shortage has proven really challenging for Bamako and for the regime.”

She added: “The problem right now is the criminal economy surrounding the fuel. So essentially everyone is taking the fuel for themselves and there’s a lot of contraband, and in the black market it’s being sold massively.”

On Tuesday, dozens of fuel tankers were ambushed on roads leading to the capital.

A major army garrison in nearby Kati, the junta’s primary stronghold, was unable to respond due to a lack of fuel.

“The fuel also helps generators because before the fuel crisis, there was also an electricity shortage for the past couple of years,” said Ms de León Cobo.

“So essentially everything from transport of food to equipment to generators, the current blockade has limited all mobility and operations – it has not only affected Bamako, it has affected the whole south, and even the centre of the country.”

In Bamako, residents spend hours searching for fuel as cars and motorbikes crowd around the few open stations. Power outages are also spreading.

Speaking from a queue for fuel in the capital, Karim Coulibaly, a bus driver in his 30s, said: “I’ve been here for three days. I’ve spent two nights here”.

He added that the lack of fuel had left him unemployed.

“I haven’t gone to work for a week,” said Oumar Diallo, a civil servant waiting in the kilometre-long queue.

In the middle of harvest season, some agricultural machinery has been rendered inoperable without fuel, with the shortages having struck daily life outside the capital several weeks earlier.

“Usually, this time of year rice and millet prices drop because it’s harvest time,” said Ousmane Dao, a 32-year-old grain vendor at a Bamako market. “This year, it’s not the case.”

Many in Mali are afraid of speaking to Western media over fears of potential retribution from the junta.

Across the Sahel, poverty, instability, and sectarian violence have long fuelled insurgencies and extremism.

Recent military coups have worsened the situation, which has driven out UN peacekeepers, French forces, and over 1,000 US troops.

JNIM and other terror groups have filled the power vacuum by offering protection and basic services while forcing communities to accept their rule and strict Islamic laws.

Their expansion also brings income, as they tax traffic on roads they control.

International military partnerships now play a major role in Mali’s security, with Russia and Turkey emerging as key supporters of the Malian armed forces.

Russian involvement goes well beyond fuel, including trainers, personnel – especially in the north – and various military capabilities.

“They’re the biggest partner in the security sector, not just on fuel,” one source said.

Photos recently showed helicopters protecting fuel trucks, detailing how Russian assets are now integrated into Mali’s operations.

Russia’s role has also evolved. The Wagner group initially operated in Mali, but after its founder died in 2023, control shifted to the Africa Corps, a force under Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU.

Yevgeny Prigozhin founded the mercenary group which operated across Africa and was accused of a litany of war crimes until his death in a suspicious plane crash, reportedly ordered by the Kremlin.

Mali’s crisis began in 2012 when Tuareg separatists and Islamist militants seized the country’s northern half.

French forces intervened in 2013, pushing back the insurgents but failing to remove them.

The insurgency transformed under Iyad ag Ghali, a former Tuareg rebel leader who once enjoyed Marlboro cigarettes and rock music before becoming radicalised.

He founded Ansar al-Din (Supporters of the Religion) and later helped create JNIM in 2017 by merging several al-Qaeda affiliates.

The new terror group immediately pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda’s global leadership.

Experts estimate JNIM has about 6,000 fighters – a small force in a nation of 25 million – yet it has consolidated control across much of Mali and Burkina Faso and now threatens coastal states such as Benin, Togo and Ghana.

Ms Trichias said: “If JNIM works to gain control of areas within Mali, areas of control may become a sanctuary for transnational militant operations.

“The group could consolidate routes across the Sahel, facilitating expansion and attacks in-country and across neighbouring states.”

Mr Ag Ghali, nicknamed “the strategist,” is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes and crimes against humanity. He remains at large.

He has banned music in territories under his control and gradually expanded his reach from Mali’s far north to the capital’s doorstep.

The Telegraph understands that he now operates in border areas, particularly near Algeria, where the desert terrain is familiar to him. He is said to have exceptional knowledge of the arid landscapes.

Mr Ag Ghali joined Gaddafi’s Islamic Legion in Libya before returning to lead the 1990 Tuareg uprising in Mali.

In the late 1990s, he embraced Salafism after meeting Pakistani missionaries in Kidal and became involved in ransom negotiations for Islamist kidnappers, linking him to future al-Qaeda leaders.

He later maintained ties with then-Malian president Amadou Toumani Touré, who appointed him envoy to Saudi Arabia - a move that alienated other Tuareg rebels.

Now, Mr Ag Ghali’s forces are on the verge of taking over the capital.

JNIM has openly said it wants to emulate the Taliban’s 2021 takeover of Kabul, waiting for government forces to collapse from within rather than launching frontal assaults.

The jihadists also view the December seizure of Damascus by a former al-Qaeda affiliate as a blueprint for their strategy, according to a United Nations report released in July.

Frustrated by the government’s inability to counter the militants, Mali’s military overthrew the civilian administration in 2020, then sacked its own commander in 2021.

Similar coups followed in neighbouring Burkina Faso and Niger.