Last week, Kalshi announced an international expansion into more than 140 countries after previously operating solely in the U.S.
While the prediction market hub did not immediately confirm which countries would gain access, instead providing a non-exhaustive list of prohibited places in an updated membership agreement, the company wrote in an email to Sportico Monday that China and India are part of the worldwide growth plan.
About 18% and 17% of the world’s population live in India and China, respectively, making them extremely attractive markets for any U.S. company to enter. But there is a reason many U.S. firms, some much bigger than Kalshi, have struggled to crack them.
China has its tight controls on all online activity, maintaining bans on top American digital entities such as Google Search, Facebook, Instagram and Reddit. It also enforces strict rules around foreign investments and suppresses all gambling activity outside of state-run lotteries. Those limitations make it surprising that Kalshi would attempt to court Chinese customers.
India’s parliament passed the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill in August, which effectively bans almost all types of online wagers. India technology minister Ashwini Vaishnaw hailed the legislation as a way to protect citizens “from betting, gambling and fantasy money games that exploit users with false promises of profit.”
In short, this is an uncomfortable time for any betting company that wants to operate in India. Across social media platforms, multiple India residents have said in recent days that they are still unable to register accounts on Kalshi, suggesting the company’s purported rollout is not yet complete.
After India’s Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Bill received presidential assent, Flutter Entertainment stopped offering paid contests on Junglee, the skill-based gaming operator it acquired to tap into the India market. Flutter, which also owns the sportsbook giant FanDuel, said its operations in India “were expected to contribute approximately $200 million [in] revenue” this year alone—a sign of how much money is up for grabs in the region.
India-based prediction market startup Probo shuttered all real-money operations following the nationwide ban on paid online gaming. Before its retreat, Probo had already been ensnared in several legal cases akin to Kalshi’s fights in the U.S. around whether prediction markets should be defined as gambling or a financial asset class.
India’s new anti-betting law poses serious punishments for offenders, including potential prison terms for people who facilitate, promote or finance for-money online gaming.
Even before the legislation, top Kalshi rival Polymarket already blocked users with IP addresses in the South Asian country, though some people there have been able to circumvent restrictions by using a VPN.
Whether Kalshi can sustain operations in China or India has significant implications for its revenue potential after it announced a raise it pegged at a valuation of about $5 billion.
The Chinese and Indian governments did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
