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A Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast for Mon (09/14)

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of eastern Nebraska into western Iowa late Monday afternoon into early evening.

For additional details, see the latest Day 2 Convective Outlook.

Hazard	Sun (09/13)	Mon (09/14)	Tue (09/15)	Wed (09/16)	Thu (09/17)	Fri (09/18)	Sat (09/19)	Sun (09/20)
Severe	No Severe	Slight	Marginal	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area
Fire	Elevated	Elevated	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area	No Area

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Severe Weather Climatology (1994-2024)

Any Severe Probabilities: 14 Sep

Sig Severe Probabilities: 14 Sep

Tornado Probabilities: 14 Sep

Damaging Wind Probabilities: 14 Sep

Severe Hail Probabilities: 14 Sep

Significant Tornado Probabilities: 14 Sep

Significant Wind Probabilities: 14 Sep

Significant Hail Probabilities: 14 Sep

More climatology data here.

2026 Tornado Watch Summary

Page last modified: September 13 2026 12:27 UTC

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2026 Severe Thunderstorm Watch Summary

Page last modified: September 13 2026 12:28 UTC

Wildfire Climatology (1992-2020)

100 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Sep

300 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Sep

1000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Sep

5000 Acres Wildfire Probabilities: 14 Sep

More climatology data here.

Latest SPC Publications

Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2026: On a Comprehensive Archive for Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [6300K PDF]
Chalmers, Z. A., M. D. Parker, 2026: Variability in High-Shear, Low-CAPE QLCS Environments in the Southeastern United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [21500K PDF]
Lyons, A. D., R. L. Thompson, B. T. Smith, H. G. Weinman, and A. R. Dean, 2026: Convective Mode Classification and Distribution of Contiguous U.S. Tornado Events from 2003 to 2023. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [19600K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: Leveraging Coproduction to Bridge Research and Operations in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6601K PDF]
Harrison, D.R., A. McGovern, C.D. Karstens, A. Bostrom, I.L. Jirak, and P.T. Marsh, 2025: An Assessment of How Domain Experts Evaluate Machine Learning in Operational Meteorology. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [16916K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part II: An Updated Spatial Climatology of Derechos across the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [3250K PDF]
Squitieri, B.J., A.R. Wade, and I.L. Jirak, 2025: On a Modified Definition of a Derecho. Part I: Construction of the Definition and Quantitative Criteria for Identifying Future Derechos over the Contiguous United States. Published in Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.. [5585K PDF]
Moore, A., 2024: Investigating the Near-Surface Wind Fields of Downbursts Using a Series of High-Resolution Idealized Simulations. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [6768K PDF]
Find more research articles at the SPC publication archive.

Latest SPC Case Archive

Sep 12, 2026	Tornado: 2	Wind: 48	Hail: 22

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