NEW YORK | LOS ANGELES | DENVER | PHILADELPHIA |
BSGC O.COM
TO:
Interested parties
FROM:
Amy Levin, Benenson Strategy Group
RE:
Josh Harder CA-10 Poll Results
DATE:
May 8, 2018
➢
Our latest poll on the Congressional primary in CA-10 shows Josh Harder is in second place behind Representative Denham, and clearly has the momentum in this race. The horserace currently stands at:
✓
Jeff Denham, Businessman/Farmer/Representative, Republican: 42%
✓
Josh Harder, Educator/Businessman, Democrat: 13%
✓
Michael Eggman, Farmer/Businessman, Democrat: 10%
✓
Virginia Madueño, Valley Water Commissioner, Democrat: 6%
✓
Sue Zwahlen, Registered Nurse, Democrat: 6%
✓
Ted D. Howze, Veterinarian, Republican: 4%
➢
Harder has made significant gains over the past few months
–
picking up 10 points in vote
–
while Eggman has tumbled 9 points and has now lost nearly half of the voters he had back in February.
Feb 2018 May 2018 Change since Feb
Jeff Denham 42 42 0 Josh Harder 3 13 +10 Michael Eggman 19 10 -9 Virginia Madueño 4 6 +2 Sue Zwahlen 6 6 0 Dotty Nygard
(dropped out)
4 0 -4 Ted D. Howze
n/a 4 n/a Michael J. Barkley 1 1 0
➢
Among Democrats, Harder's current lead is even bigger, with 26% voting Harder, 18% Eggman, and 10% Madueño in the initial horserace.
➢
Harder
’s story and message are clearly resonating in the district. He has a much healthier favorability
than Eggman, who is barely above water, and Madueño, who also has a surprisingly high negative rating for her total name-ID.
✓
Harder: net favorable +17
▪
28% favorable (up 21 points since February), 11% unfavorable (up just 7 points)
✓
Eggman: net favorable +3
▪
31% favorable (down 5 points since February), 28% unfavorable (up 9 points)
✓
Madueño: net favorable +6
▪
20% favorable, 14% unfavorable
➢
BSG has also conducted previous polling with the general election universe that also showed Harder pulling within one point of Denham (46 Harder -47 Denham) when voters have heard negatives on both candidates and positives on Harder.
2
Methodology
Benenson Strategy Group conducted 550 interviews with likely 2018 primary election voters in
California’s 10
th
Congressional District from May 2-6, 2018. The margin of error is ± 4.2% dataset as a whole at the 95% confidence level. From February 12-15, 2018, BSG conducted 401 interviews with likely
2018 primary election voters and 577 interviews with likely 2018 general election voters in California’s 10
th
Congressional District. The margin of error is ± 4.9% for the primary election dataset and ± 4.1% for the general election dataset as a whole at the 95% confidence level.