T
HE
T
ARRANCE
G
ROUP
www.tarrance.com
201 N Union Street, Suite 410 Alexandria, Virginia 22314 (703) 684-6688 (703) 836-8256 FAX
MEMORANDUM
TO
:
PALAZZO FOR CONGRESS
FROM
:
ED GOEAS
NICHOLAS THOMPSON
RE
:
FINDINGS FROM SURVEY OF MS
4
VOTERS
DATE
:
OCTOBER
20,
2010 ________________________________________________________________________
The Tarrance Group is pleased to present Palazzo for Congress with the key findings from a survey of voters in the 4
th
Congressional District of Mississippi. Responses to this survey of N=300 registered “likely” voters were gathered October 18-19, 2010. The margin of error associated with a sample of this type of +/- 5.8%.
KEY FINDINGS
Incumbent Democrat Congressman Gene Taylor is in danger of defeat, as Republican challenger Steven Palazzo has pulled into the lead in the race for Congress. Among voters overall, Palazzo leads Taylor by +2 points, 43% to 41%. Another 3% support other candidates, and 12% of voters are undecided.
Palazzo holds a +8 lead among voters who know both candidates (48% to 40%), and he leads by +9 among voters who say they are “extremely” likely to vote in the election (49% to 40%).
Another advantage for Palazzo is the intensity advantage of his voters. While 81% of Palazzo voters are extremely interested in the upcoming election, only 55% of Taylor voters feel the same way.
Voters have made the decision that it is time for a change. Only 36% say Taylor deserves re-election, while 45% say it is time for a new person in office.
The political environment is a clear advantage for Palazzo, as Republicans hold a +9 point lead on the generic congressional ballot. While 47% say they are supporting the Republican candidate, only 38% support the Democrat. ###
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