France’s top general expects ‘shock’ with Russia in 3-4 years

PARIS — France's newly appointed chief of defense is preparing the nation's armed forces to be ready for a "shock, that would be a kind of test" from Russia.

"Russia is a country that may be tempted to continue the war on our continent," Gen. Fabien Mandon told lawmakers on the National Assembly's defense committee on Wednesday.

"The first objective I have given the armed forces is to be ready in three or four years for a shock that would be a kind of test," he added. "The test already exists in hybrid forms, but it may become more violent."

Top generals and politicians from EU and NATO countries have warned that Moscow could attack the alliance in the coming years, with timelines varying from 2027 to 2030. Last week, the European Commission presented a road map to help capitals prepare for war by 2030.

Traditionally, French military officers have been more reluctant than some of their European counterparts to provide timelines and speak openly about a Russian attack on NATO. In more recent months, however, the French rhetoric on Moscow has become starker, with President Emmanuel Macron saying that Europe is "in a confrontation with Russia."

"To assume that the 2022 invasion of Ukraine is the last attack and that it will not happen again on our continent is to ignore the risk facing our societies," Mandon told lawmakers. "The Russians are reorganizing with one goal in mind: to confront NATO."

However, the French general added: "Europe is the right scale to address our challenges."

France's rearmament push is already a signal to deter Russia, he explained: "If our rivals perceive that we are making this effort, they may renounce. If they feel that we are not prepared to defend ourselves, I don't see what could stop them."