New year, same existential question for Nick Robertson at training camp: Where, if anywhere, does he fit with the Toronto Maple Leafs?
Three paths appear possible, from most likely to least likely.
Let’s dive in.
1. The Leafs trade him
We saw a version of this play out last fall with Timothy Liljegren, another player who had been around a long time without ever quite nailing down a firm position within the organization.
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Despite clear reservations with the player, the Leafs brought Liljegren back on a new contract in the summer of 2024 only to see him banished, almost immediately, by head coach Craig Berube. Liljegren played exactly one game. He sat in nine others before GM Brad Treliving finally dealt him to the Sharks at the end of October.
This path feels all the more likely for Robertson if the Leafs get through the preseason with few to no injuries and Berube finds a lineup he likes that doesn’t include Robertson.
As with Liljegren, Robertson has made it clear he isn’t especially thrilled to be back with the Leafs. Keeping him around, if he isn’t going to play regularly, doesn’t suit player or team.
Maybe Treliving decides to do right by Robertson, who has always given the team everything he has, by moving him at the first sign of interest this fall.
The question is whether there’s a team out there that’s willing to take a flier on Robertson at $1.825 million on the cap, with restricted free agency (and potential arbitration) ahead next summer.
Why not San Jose? Or Chicago? Or Pittsburgh, which is led by the GM who drafted Robertson way back in 2019 with the Leafs?
If that team is out there, though, why wasn’t Robertson dealt already?
2. More of the same (or worse)
What makes this year perhaps even more daunting than all the others for Robertson is that there’s no obvious place in the lineup for him any longer.
In years past, there was typically a conceivable gig for him to claim on the third line, often centered by Max Domi.
Not anymore.
Nicolas Roy is slated to centre a defensive-minded third unit with fellow giant Dakota Joshua. Berube has hinted at stuffing the line in the defensive zone in hopes of alleviating some of that burden on lines led by Auston Matthews and John Tavares.
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The new-look third line is supposed to pack a physical, Berube-branded punch.
It would hardly suit Robertson.
Nor is Robertson likely to find much playmaking help from Roy and Joshua, who combined for 23 assists last season. If Robertson is going to play, he should play with players who can help him score.
If not on the third line, it’s possible Berube gives Robertson a shot to play alongside Steven Lorentz and Scott Laughton on the fourth line. But again, how does that kind of line, with those kinds of players, really suit Robertson?
Robertson has never managed to stick in a top-six gig.
Another obstacle for Robertson relates to Domi.
Many of the 24-year-old’s scoring flourishes in the NHL have happened next to the veteran forward. Now, with Roy in the mix, it’s unlikely (though not impossible) the two will play together.
The additions of Roy, Joshua and Matias Maccelli, along with the somewhat unexpected return of both David Kämpf and Calle Järnkrok, also make for an even cloudier path to playing time.
Robertson might start the season ranked 14th on the depth chart at forward.
The coach hasn’t changed either, the same one that played him only 12 minutes per game last season and scratched him for all but three playoff games.
This isn’t just a Berube thing, though.
Robertson struggled to find consistent playing time under Sheldon Keefe as well.
And that gets to the heart of the issue with Robertson, the same now as every year, it seems: How does he impact the game, positively, if he’s not scoring?
Robertson doesn’t score enough to elude the question. He has 32 goals in 156 career games. He was held without a goal in 56 of his 69 games last season. What did he tangibly bring to the group on those nights? Robertson registered an assist in only three of those games — and seven, total, all season. He has yet to demonstrate that he can make those around him better. And while he works hard and can be pesky on pucks, Robertson isn’t big or strong enough to change a game physically.
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That’s why it’s difficult, still, to make much of Robertson’s preseason theatrics. For one thing, he scores every preseason — eight goals and 12 points and counting in his last 14 games — when the competition is weaker and the minutes are more plentiful. For another, the Leafs already know he can score every now and again.
What else can he do to help them?
All of which makes another season like the last two more likely than not if Robertson isn’t dealt; one that sees Robertson in and out of the lineup, with lacking minutes on those nights he gets the call.
3. Robertson breaks out
This path can’t be ruled out entirely.
The Leafs are going to need to find goals from somewhere in the wake of Mitch Marner’s exit, and after the big four up front and Bobby McMann, Robertson is the likeliest forward to deliver them.
It’s possible Berube scratches Robertson early in the season, only to find the bottom half of the forward group lacking offensively. A determined Robertson, in that scenario, takes his opportunity and runs with it and becomes a first-time 20-goal scorer in the NHL.
The tricky thing is going to be ice time. How is Robertson going to find enough of it — more than 12 minutes — to score on the regular?
Well, maybe Joshua ends up being a better fit for fourth-line duty. And maybe that frees up a winger slot on the third line with Roy. And maybe, because Maccelli has clicked with Matthews on the top line, Domi ends up there, too.
Suddenly, the line’s function changes, and Domi and Robertson reunite.
Or, maybe Berube decides he needs to create a bottom-six unit that might actually score and turns to Domi to lead it alongside Robertson and Laughton.
Another scenario, unlikely as it seems: It’s Robertson who finally clicks next to Tavares and William Nylander on a second line that’s heavily sheltered by the Leafs head coach.
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Joshua, Maccelli and Domi aren’t sure bets to work out, either. Slippage from any or all, not to mention McMann, could create an opening for Robertson somewhere in the lineup.
When he does play, Robertson is a lock for second-unit power-play duty. And maybe, with Marner gone, the No. 1 unit isn’t quite as dominant, and Berube turns to PP2 a touch more often and Robertson capitalizes.
He has only three power-play goals in the NHL.
On nights when the Leafs are trailing in the third period and need a goal, mind you, Berube should call on Robertson ahead of just about anyone else in the bottom six: Laughton, Lorentz, Joshua, Roy, Järnkrok and Kämpf.
In light of all that, maybe Robertson logs around 14 minutes on average, instead of 12, and because of that, scores 20-25 goals and becomes someone Berube needs in his lineup. Someone the Leafs need, too.
Likely? No, but it could happen.
— Stats and research courtesy of Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick and Puckpedia
(Top photo: Claus Andersen / Getty Images)
