Democrat Abigail Spanberger continues to lead Republican Winsome Earle-Sears in the final stretch of Virginia’s governor’s race, but to varying degrees in the polls. Newsweek has rounded up what the polls are saying three days before the election.
Spanberger was enjoying an average lead of 7.4 points across eight major surveys as of Friday, according to polling aggregator RealClearPolling.
Why It Matters
Virginia’s off-year elections have previously served as early signals of national political mood. The 2021 election of Republican Glenn Youngkin was widely interpreted as a backlash to Democratic control in Washington and gave Republicans a model for appealing to suburban swing voters. Democrats now hope a Spanberger win can represent a shift back toward their coalition, especially among women and college-educated independents.
What To Know
A new poll from Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage conducted October 28 shows Democrat Abigail Spanberger, former U.S. representative for Virginia's 7th congressional district, leading Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, the state's lieutenant governor, 46 percent to 42 percent—a 4-point margin.
Other recent surveys show larger advantages for Spanberger: Roanoke College has her up by 10 points (51 percent to 41 percent), Christopher Newport University by 7 (50 to 43), Suffolk University by 9 (52 to 43), and Quantus Insights by 5 (51 to 46). The Washington Post/Schar poll gives Spanberger her widest lead, at 12 points (54 to 42).
Co/efficient has her up by 5 (49 to 44), and an earlier VCU poll shows a 7-point margin (49 to 42).
Demographics
Spanberger and Earle-Sears are drawing starkly different coalitions in the latest Trafalgar/InsiderAdvantage poll of 800 likely voters—the most recent of all the polls—in Virginia, underscoring the sharp demographic divides defining the race.
Spanberger leads overall with 45.9 percent to Earle-Sears' 41.8 percent, but the gender gap is especially notable. Spanberger leads by nearly 10 points among women (48.4 to 38.5), while Earle-Sears holds a near 3-point edge among men (45.2 to 42.7).
Earle-Sears leads among Hispanic voters (50.0 to 43.8), while Spanberger leads among Black voters (45.1 to 35.2) and has a commanding edge among voters identifying as “another race” (61.1 to 16.7). White voters slightly favor Earle-Sears (45.1 to 44.1).
Party lines remain sharply polarized. Spanberger is supported by 84.5 percent of Democrats, compared to just 8.4 percent for Earle-Sears. Among Republicans, Earle-Sears commands 77.6 percent support, with Spanberger pulling only 10 percent. Among Independents, the race is closer: Earle-Sears leads 40.8 percent to 39.4 percent—effectively a dead heat within the poll’s margin of error, which is plus or minus 3.46 percent.
What Happens Next
Election Day is set for Tuesday.
