In the race to be New Jersey's next governor, a new poll from A2 Insights shows Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill with a multipoint advantage over her Republican rival Jack Ciattarelli.
According to the A2 Insights online poll, which surveyed 812 likely voters in the Garden State, 51.4 percent said they would back Sherrill while 46.5 percent said they were behind Ciattarelli. The poll was conducted between October 24-26.
Newsweek reached out to Sherrill and Ciattarelli by email to comment on this story outside of normal business hours.
Why It Matters
New Jersey is one of two states, with Virginia being the other, to hold a gubernatorial election this year. Voters are set to choose a successor to Democratic Governor Phil Murphy who is finishing his second and final term.
The race could serve as a litmus test to see whether Democrats are making wins with voters ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with Democrats hoping to take back the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate.
While Republicans have not won a gubernatorial election in New Jersey since 2013, and the state has voted for a Democrat in every presidential election since 1992, the GOP has seen success in the state in recent years.
President Donald Trump increased his vote share by 10 points in 2024, the best showing by a GOP presidential nominee in two decades. A competitive result for Ciattarelli—or even a narrow loss—would signal renewed Republican strength in the suburbs and test the resilience of Democratic dominance across the Northeast. It would also give both parties an early indication of how voters’ economic frustrations and views of Trump’s influence are shaping the post-2024 political landscape.
What To Know
While this most recent poll still has Sherill in the lead, it reflects losses for the Democratic candidate and gains for the Republican.
A poll released in early August by A2 Insights put Sherrill, who currently serves as a congresswoman in the U.S. House of Representatives, at 55 percent and Ciattarelli, a former member of the New Jersey General Assembly, at 40 percent. That poll sampled 629 New Jersey likely voters and was conducted between July 29 and August 2.
Sherill seemed to have a commanding advantage early on in the race, but this momentum was disrupted following the release of largely unredacted military records from the National Archives detailing her time at the U.S. Naval Academy. The documents included disciplinary information and reportedly showed that Sherrill was barred from walking at her 1994 graduation after refusing to implicate classmates who cheated on an exam.
Sherrill's campaign later contested that the disciplinary file had been sealed and not subject to public disclosure.
The congresswoman's standing has slipped in the polls since. A SurveyUSA poll released in May showed the Democrat leading Ciattarelli by 13 percentage points. However, partisan loyalties are deeply entrenched ahead of next week's election. In this most recent A2 Insights poll, just 0.5 percent said they would vote for someone else, and only 1.6 percent were undecided.
Respondents were recruited through an online opt-in panel and weighted to be representative of New Jersey's population.
What People Are Saying
Mark Shanahan, who teaches American politics at the University of Surrey in the United Kingdom, previously told Newsweek: "While races have got closer in New Jersey, it's still a Democrat state. There's some disquiet that Sherrill is just a retread of the outgoing governor, Phil Murphy, and her challenger, Jack Ciattarelli has had a decent campaign, backed by President Trump and campaigning hard on tax reduction. But he has lost the gubernatorial race twice before, and there's no indication he'll be third time lucky."
Mikie Sherrill in a post on X on October 26: “We’ve hit single digits until Election Day — and Union Dems are leading the charge! This team is working hard every single day to make sure our message reaches every corner of the state.”
Jack Ciattarelli in a post on X on October 26: “The Road to Change Bus Tour is back on the road tomorrow! Join me in Ocean and Burlington County! Tomorrow is day three of Early Voting, and every New Jerseyan ready for change is helping pave the way for a brighter, more affordable, and safer state. Get out and vote!”
What Happens Next?
New Jersey's Election Day is Tuesday, November 4.
