With China appearing to be planning for a possible invasion of Taiwan, and the self-ruled island girding itself in response, Newsweek has spoken to analysts about the state of preparations on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
U.S. defense and intelligence officials have warned Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the People's Liberation Army to be at least capable of moving against Taiwan by 2027. Admiral Samuel Paparo, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, has said Beijing’s increasingly sophisticated military exercises, including simulated blockades, are "dress rehearsals.”
The government in Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, has controlled the island since 1949, after losing the mainland to communist forces. Today it functions as a self-governing democracy with its own military and foreign relations.
The gap between the two militaries is enormous and widening. China spends roughly 10 times more on defense than Taiwan and now operates the world’s largest navy, backed by an expanding missile arsenal and about 600 nuclear warheads. Xi has vowed to build a “world-class military” by mid-century, a goal widely seen as meaning one capable of rivaling the U.S.
Newsweek reached out to the Chinese Embassy and Taiwan's de facto embassy in the U.S. via emailed requests for comment.
Washington has long urged Taipei to invest less in heavy weapons—like tanks and large warships—and more in asymmetric systems such as drones, mobile rocket launchers, and coastal missiles that can slow a far larger invasion force.
A Daunting Amphibious Invasion
“The development of the Chinese PLA [People's Liberation Army] shows they are preparing for something—that’s for sure,” Jyh-Shyang Sheu, associate research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told Newsweek.
But for an invasion, China would need to cross the 80-mile-wide Taiwan Strait.
Sheu believes this could seriously impede any attempt by China to land troops in Taiwan, citing the barrier that the much narrower English Channel proved to be in World War II.
“When we are talking about the English Channel, it’s from France to Dover—it’s only around 30 kilometers (19 miles), but even that created a strong difficulty for Nazi Germany to launch an invasion (of England),” Sheu said. “So for China, the 200-kilometer-wide distance between Taiwan and the mainland is still a serious obstacle. Even with advanced technologies nowadays, that tyranny of distance remains a major challenge.”
Analysts say only about 14 of Taiwan's beaches could support an amphibious landing—and all are heavily fortified. Again referring to World War II, Sheu noted that instead of a Normandy-style assault, Beijing would likely combine amphibious, airborne, and heliborne operations to seize airports, ports, and bridges that could serve as entry points for follow-on forces.
Aerial Training
China has been training its army aviation units for this type of mission and, according to a 2023 report by the British think tank RUSI, may be seeking Russian help. The report, based on leaked contracts, said Moscow agreed to train a Chinese airborne battalion and supply anti-tank guns and light vehicles.
“That’s because the Russians have much more well-developed equipment for this kind of mission,” Sheu said. “If that is true, of course China could take advantage from that.”
For China, the key would be speed, Sheu said, with a focus on weapons systems such as missiles that deny access to the conflict zone to a potential U.S.-led intervention.
Cyberwarfare
“Maybe a few days or even within hours,” Sheu said, describing the type of rapid campaign China would need to complete before the U.S. or its allies could respond. To that end, the PLA has been developing cyberwarfare tools and space-based weapons designed to blind Taiwan’s early-warning systems and disrupt communications and take down critical infrastructure early in the conflict.
The aim would be to "try to make the Taiwanese society and government system just shut down with cyber-attacks."
Amphibious Forces
Another piece of China’s buildup is a new class of landing craft called Shuiqiao, or “water bridges.” Each ship carries a 400-foot deployable ramp that allows tanks and vehicles to roll directly onto coastal roads beyond beaches.
“There’s been a lot more activity related to them over the last year,” said Bryce Barros, a security analyst and associate fellow at the think tank GLOBSEC.
“Everything about whether or not they can be used effectively depends on China having full control of the waters and skies around Taiwan,” he told Newsweek. “They’re very slow; they’re very large; and they’re huge targets. That means they’d need strong air defense, counter-drone systems, and protection against unmanned surface and underwater vehicles.”
Then there's the Type 076 assault ship, a larger derivative of the older Type 075 that functions as a mini aircraft carrier. While the People's Liberation Army currently boasts just one Type 076, also known as the Yulan class, the vessel is armed with electromagnetic catapults and arresting gear for light fixed-wing aircraft, Barros noted.
China has also been expanding its "roll-on/roll-off (Ro-Ro) fleet of civilian ships that would almost certainly be commandeered during a cross-strait conflict and loaded with troops and armor for transport across the strait.
However, to get China's colossal invasion force, underway, "it's going to really require domination of the sea and the air—especially the sea," he said. "And if it's easier to see that coming down, that's where things like USV (unmanned surface vehicles) become very easy for Taiwan to be able to target a lot of those vessels and ships, right?
Taiwan’s Preparations
Recent drills in Taiwan have focused on coastal defense and counter-landing operations, while reforms have included improved reserve mobilization and extending the island's mandatory military service to one year from four months.
President Lai Ching-te has said he aims to raise defense spending to over 3 percent of GDP next year. Last month, he announced a new multi-layered web of air defense systems known as the "T-Dome" is in development to protect the missile salvoes expected to lead a Chinese invasion of the island.
Barros noted that Taiwan is developing unmanned systems—underwater, surface, and aerial—as part of an asymmetric strategy aimed at keeping Chinese forces at bay.
“Making sure that they’re doing everything they can to develop UUVs, USVs, and UAVs, especially longer-range UAVs, is going to be really critical to maintaining Taiwan’s overall defensive posture,” he said.
Barros stressed the need for improved military training, particularly empowering junior officers and non-commissioned officers to make tactical decisions on their own.
“Taiwan needs to focus on making sure that unit tactics are done to the lowest level possible,” he said, adding that such reforms were key to Ukraine’s battlefield successes against Russian forces.
