Inside Kemi Badenoch's first year - 'she's got to hope for a Nigel Farage implosion'
A year ago on Sunday Kemi Badenoch was named Tory leader after members ignored James Cleverley's plea to 'be more normal' - and 12 months on Nigel Farage has stolen the initiative
It's not been a vintage 12 months for the Tories.
A year ago tomorrow Kemi Badenoch took the reins after the worst General Election defeat in the party's history. Members had ignored favourite James Cleverly's plea to "be more normal" and put the firebrand former Business Secretary in charge instead.
There was no clearer sign of how fast fortunes change than the rows of empty seats during last month's party conference, which was branded "like a wake". The past year has seen an exodus to Nigel Farage's Reform UK, with Danny Kruger just the latest to jump from a seemingly sinking ship.
Members knew it would take time to recover, but with Farage on the march the task is even harder than ever. Keir Starmer says he views Reform as the main opposition as Labour's traditional rival melts away. Now pollsters say a Reform implosion is Mrs Badenoch's best hope.
To make matters worse for her, Conservative Party rules mean she is now open to a leadership challenge if enough disgruntled MPs decide another rebellion - an artform they've perfected in recent years - is in order.
So how bleak is it looking for the embattled leader and her gaggle of loyalists? The bad news for Tory HQ is that just 12% of voters believe she's a Prime Minister in waiting. According to polling from YouGov, published on Friday, 62% of the public cannot see her on the steps of No10.
At the same time there's an acceptance that it probably wouldn't be better under another leader. Two thirds of voters - and 61% of Conservatives - said the party would be in a weak state regardless of who was in charge.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice told The Mirror Mrs Badenoch continues to be haunted by the party's record in Government. He said that while the public are increasingly aware of who she is, it's not changed the dial much.
He explained: "The good news there is that the ‘don't knows’ are going down. Trouble is, when you look at what is the balance of favourable and unfavourable impressions, she basically hasn’t made any progress. She’s been bouncing in the low minus 30s ever since she became leader, and it’s not fundamentally changed.
"People are getting to know her more, but for every person who goes ‘oh ok not too bad’, there’s another one who goes ‘oh my God, surely not’."
The polling guru claimed that while Tory leader had got better at PMQs, the key problem was “does anyone think the Tories can actually run anything?”. He continued: “Until the Tories can regain their reputation as a serious player capable of running the country then they’re not going to recover. There are some ‘well dones’ for the last few weeks and months, but shall we say, although you’re beginning to do your homework, you’re still failing the exam”.
Sir John said Mrs Badenoch needed distance from the years of Tory Government, but that it might take more than the four years she has until the next election. He said: “She needs some distance.
"The problem is, it might be more than a one Parliament job. You need some distance between you and people’s memories that really did end up being evaluated negatively.
"They could still do with distancing much more from Boris Johnson, basically saying the guy was economical with the truth, and we in the end claim the credit for having brought the government down and turfing him out. The people who were still going to love Johnson have gone anyway, so they may as well make distance from that.
"They also now admit Liz Truss was a wee bit of a mistake, and that doesn’t do any harm.” Asked if the public felt differently about other Tories, Sir John replied: “Oh come on, who do you think knows about anybody else?”
Asked if May’s elections gave enough space for the Tories to recover, Sir John was emphatic. He said: “No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. The Tories at the moment have got to hope there is some kind of Reform implosion.”
Privately there's a lot of disgruntlement among MPs - but also an acceptance that kicking someone else out is unlikely to make much difference. After a difficult first year, there will be a lot of eyes on Mrs Badenoch - who did enjoy a boost after a conference speech which saw her pledge to scrap stamp duty.
Former Tory frontbencher Sir Andrew Mitchell told The Mirror: “Frankly given where we were a year ago, and the hard yards we must now put in to regain the trust of the British people, I don’t think anyone could have done better.
"Over the next year I think she is well placed to reconnect us with the electorate - especially on the economy."
One Shadow Minister told The Mirror Ms Badenoch had improved after a difficult start, noting it was down to the team around her.
They explained: “It was a bit of a slow start, it was frustrating for those who were supporters of her. I don’t envy her over the job.
“But the operation around her seems to be getting better, and she’s regained the confidence she had during the leadership election, which for whatever reason, took a real dip at the beginning of this year, and there have been changes around her office and in CCHQ, which have been really positive.
“I think things are going alright now, though I probably wouldn’t have given you the same answer five or six months ago”.
However, they didn’t express confidence for the elections next year, admitting “May elections were always going to be difficult”.
Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick - who lost out last year - has spent the year keeping a high profile. And a lot of people are starting to talk about newcomer Katie Lam, a shadow Home Office minister, as a potential future leader.
Ms Lam, who had to be shot down by her boss after suggesting settled people could be kicked out of the UK, has denied any involvement in a mysterious 'Lam for leader' website which cropped up this week. But if we thought year one was shaky, year two could be brutal if Mrs Badenoch does not turn things around.