Kpler

China crude inventories rebound China’s #crude oil stockpiles recorded a 12Mbbl increase last week, reversing six consecutive weeks of draws. The build follows a sharp rebound in October imports, which rose by ~600kbd to nearly 10.5Mbd. Strong discharge pace signalled toward month-end spilled into November and the robust pace has already lifted inventories from August’s record highs. With crude runs projected to soften into December, further inventory accumulation may follow. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://okt.to/ICj7pN

Join Amena Bakr, Head of Middle East Energy & OPEC+ and Naveen Das, Senior Crude Oil Analyst, on Friday 7th November. Key themes for discussion include: ◾Reviewing and understanding the latest #OPEC+ policy move and what that means to the market ◾How the evolving fundamentals and geopolitics shapes our market calls for 2026 ◾Looking at balances and where #oil prices are heading Register here: https://okt.to/2LNVFg

From Athens to New York, our Media Relations Manager, Nikos Pothitakis, connects reporters with #Kpler’s analysts, insights, and data — helping raise awareness and support more accurate market reporting. During his recent trip to the Big Apple, Nikos hosted Kpler Media Day, met with leading journalists, toured the New York Times offices, and joined our clients and partners for a memorable evening in the city that never sleeps. Watching our new campaign light up Times Square was the perfect reminder of how far our ambition reaches, and how every journey at Kpler is an opportunity to grow, connect, and make an impact.

OPEC+ holds steady for Q1 2026 #OPEC+ has confirmed it will unwind an additional 137Kbd of production cuts in December 2025, followed by a pause in output increases during Q1 2026. The decision reflects a consensus among members to manage supply prudently amid seasonal demand softness and typical inventory builds. With supply builds projected at 3Mbd in Q4 and 3.4Mbd in Q1, the group seeks to stabilise markets and maintain price discipline. Delegates stressed the move was driven by market dynamics, not geopolitical pressure. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://okt.to/SgrMEA Amena Bakr

US-China port fee pause eases fleet pressure Following a US-China agreement on 30 October to suspend reciprocal #port fees for one year, #drybulk fleet inefficiencies are set to decline. The move averts disruptive port charges that would have spurred vessel rerouting, longer port stays, and tighter supply. Capesize and Panamax rates have softened amid growing Pacific ballast supply and falling bunker costs, while Supramax and Handysize segments face seasonal Atlantic weakness. A rebalancing of global fleet deployment is now likely, as freight markets adjust to this regulatory reprieve. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://okt.to/uCfrzO

Ukraine gas flows hold steady November #gas transmission capacity bookings point to stable import flows despite ongoing Russian strikes. Hungary remains the main entry point, backed by strong demand and pricing. Poland offers flexibility, and Slovakia acts as a balancing route. Route 1, carrying gas from Greece, saw its first auction success, signalling a new supply dynamic. The west-to-east pull is likely to persist through winter, though risks remain. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight: https://okt.to/UphNay #TTF #natgas #LNG #ONGT

Sanctioned Russian tanker conducts first ship-to-ship LNG transfer offshore Malaysia Kpler data confirms that the Perle, part of Russia’s so-called shadow fleet, has conducted its first #LNG ship-to-ship (STS) transfer offshore Malaysia — marking a significant shift in global LNG trade dynamics. Between October 23–24, the Perle transferred 132,100 m³ of LNG to the CCH Gas tanker, whose ownership remains obscure. The cargo originated from Russia’s sanctioned Portovaya LNG plant (1.5 mtpa) in the Baltic Sea. Kpler data verified the discharge through a clear draught change this week. After the operation, the Perle was seen sailing west of Malaysia through the Malacca Strait at 16.2 knots, heading into the Indian Ocean. CCH Gas, meanwhile, still hasn't moved from the place of the STS. The two vessels had first met on October 18 in the Gulf of Thailand in a likely trial rendezvous before the official STS. The development highlights how Russia's sanctioned LNG flows are increasingly adapting through unconventional logistics and offshore transfer strategies. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://okt.to/WlY5BS

Nuclear cost forecasts spark tax rift #Kpler’s modelling of 2026 estimates a €200 million annual tax differential resulting from a 4.1 €/MWh gap in nuclear production cost assumptions between EDF and CRE. The discrepancy, tied to capital cost interpretations, highlights a financial rather than operational divide. Over a five-year horizon, the cumulative delta may reach up to €1.67 billion. The outcome of this dispute will likely define the new benchmark for long-term #energy contracts and wholesale pricing across France. Get access to our full report here: https://okt.to/u62zbl

Powell tempers rate-cut optimism Fed Chair Jerome Powell signalled that a December rate cut is far from guaranteed, highlighting divisions within the FOMC. Markets, which had priced in a 90% probability of a cut, saw odds fall to 60% following his comments. Front-end yields and the US dollar strengthened, while equities and gold pulled back. Read the full analysis by Reid I'Anson: https://okt.to/luRrNA 📅 Don’t miss our webinar today at 2:30 PM GMT — “From the Fed to the Barrel: Mapping the US Macroeconomy and Oil Market” with our analysts Matt Smith and Reid l' Anson. Join here: https://okt.to/d2HLzi

Global trade shifts in focus in our latest Kpler Commodity Brief ◾Kazakh crude exports face sharp decline ◾Soybean prices surge on trade hopes ◾Crude-laden VLCC speeds fall to lowest since mid-2022 ◾Near-normal November temperatures signal limited LNG demand for China ◾Kpler forecasts capture storm’s power impact Get the full breakdown in the latest update 👇