Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA)

New data out now: European LNG Tracker (H1 2025) 📉 #LNG buildout is losing momentum 📈 #Russian and #US LNG imports at record high 📊 Gas consumption and LNG imports expected to fall 15% and 20% respectively between 2025-2030 ➡️ Explore the Tracker: https://lnkd.in/eDvTiFDs

✴️ #LNG Exports Boom but Australians Pay the Price 👤 By Kevin Morrison, Energy Finance Analyst, Australian Gas, IEEFA Australia   A decade after Queensland’s $60 billion LNG export boom, IEEFA finds the costs to Australian households, manufacturers and the climate outweigh the ongoing benefits.   Key takeaways: ❗ Domestic gas prices have tripled, adding $4.3 billion in extra costs to homes and businesses in FY2023-24 ❗ Gas price hikes contributed to a doubling of electricity prices and higher inflation ❗ More than 1,200 manufacturing jobs lost, with 500 more at risk ❗ LNG production now makes up 5.5% of Queensland's emissions, potentially rising to 16% by 2035 ❗ No corporate tax paid for nearly a decade, and royalties well below expectations   ✅ The benefits: ~$60 billion in initial investment ~2,500 ongoing jobs (though with no net employment growth in oil & gas) ~$1 billion per year in royalties (well below what the coal sector pays) Improved trade surplus   But with factories closing, households hurting and emissions rising, the report asks: 👉 Is this really the best use of Australia’s gas? 📥 Read the full report: The hidden costs of LNG Boom https://lnkd.in/gtTTPEaK   #LNG #GasCrisis #Manufacturing #AustralianEconomy #EnergyTransition #GasPrices #NetZero #EnergyPolicy

A new report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), Pakistan-China Institute, and Renewables First presents a bankable case for the early retirement of imported #coal-fired assets in #Pakistan. The authors, Haneea Isaad, Mustafa Hyder Sayed, Ahtasam Ahmad, and Muhammad Umar Farooq present a case study of the 1,320-megawatt Sahiwal Coal-Fired Power Plant (CFPP), which was commissioned in 2017 by #China's Huaneng Shandong Ruyi Energy under a thirty‑year power purchase agreement. The report outlines a comprehensive valuation framework with multiple scenarios and retirement pathways to enable an early retirement transaction. It also examines global and regional examples of accelerated coal retirement to determine whether Pakistan can draw guidance from state-level mandates and internal policy support for coal phaseouts in other countries. The Sahiwal CFPP’s early retirement could avoid 27–38 million tonnes of carbon dioxide #emissions over a 10-year reduction scenario at a cost of under USD 100 million. It could create a replicable model for the accelerated closure of other CFPPs and ensure access to funds through climate and transition finance from overseas financing. Read the report, along with its press release in English and Chinese ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/dEgNqtEE #ClimateFinance #CoalRetirement #EnergyTransition #Decarbonization #Electricity #Fossilfuel #RenewableEnergy

Two years after its launch, Indonesia’s #carbon exchange IDX Carbon has not met expectations, according to a briefing note by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA)'s Mutya Yustika. She recommends key strategic reforms for #Indonesia to grasp the opportunity and position itself as a regional leader in carbon governance. Trade and participation are lagging behind similar schemes internationally, while the #IDXCarbon addresses only a small fraction of Indonesia’s #emissions. The stagnation of IDX Carbon can be attributed to a complex hybrid carbon pricing strategy that combines cap-and-trade with a fallback carbon tax, further hampered by unclear trading and certification procedures. To address these challenges, the government recently issued presidential regulation No. 110/2025, which provides a more integrated, accountable, and internationally aligned structure. However, the effectiveness of this new regulation will depend heavily on timely implementation, ongoing monitoring, and rigorous evaluation to ensure it delivers the necessary support and institutional clarity for a robust #carbonmarket. "Carbon pricing offers a powerful tool that helps countries reduce emissions, while mobilizing revenue, boosting innovation, and attracting global #investment. For Indonesia, the opportunity is especially significant. The country holds substantial potential to lead global #climateaction through nature-based solutions and #renewableenergy." Read the briefing note and its Bahasa summary ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/gXrc2Bi8 #Decarbonization #ClimateFinance #BursaKarbon #CarbonTrading #BursaEfekIndonesia

🇦🇺🇮🇳 Why Australia’s coal troubles matter for India’s energy security India depends on other countries for almost 90% of the coal used in steelmaking. Right now, nearly half of this comes from Australia. ⚠️ But Australian miners are facing challenges that may reduce future supply, from rising mining costs in Queensland to limited investment in new coal mines. This means India’s energy security is at risk, as any supply problem or price hike abroad can hit India’s steel industry hard. To protect itself, #India is trying to:  ▪️ Diversify imports from countries like #Australia, Russia, the US, Mozambique, and South Africa  ▪️ Diversify domestic coking coal production  ▪️ Invest in new technologies like #steelmaking using scrap and green hydrogen These steps can help India move toward a cleaner, more secure, and self-reliant steel sector.   Read the article ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/g9FfWcdQ Simon Nicholas | Saumya Nautiyal 

 📄 𝗡𝗘𝗪 𝗥𝗘𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗧: 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗮𝘀𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗯𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗮𝗱𝗱 𝘁𝗼 𝗟𝗡𝗚 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗻𝗴𝗲𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝗩𝗶𝗲𝘁𝗻𝗮𝗺 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗣𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗶𝗽𝗽𝗶𝗻𝗲𝘀 A global shortage of #gasturbines is likely to exacerbate delays and drive up costs for new gas-fired power projects in Vietnam and the Philippines, according to a new Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) report by Sam Reynolds, IEEFA’s LNG/Gas Research Lead, Asia. Both countries aim to rapidly expand gas-fired power capacity over the next decade, but major #gasturbine manufacturers are reporting extensive production backlogs and advising project developers to plan seven to eight years ahead for turbine procurement. “Turbine backlogs add to an already lengthy list of regulatory and financial challenges delaying gas-to-power projects in #Vietnam and the #Philippines. Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of low-cost #renewables and storage could ultimately limit the long-term role for gas and liquefied natural gas (#LNG).” 💡 Read more: https://lnkd.in/gFPJzptd #OilandGas #EnergyTransition #EnergyFinance

🌍 Emerging markets face a shortfall of $800 bn a year in climate finance The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that emerging markets and developing economies need US$1.1 trillion annually for climate action but fall short by nearly US$800 billion each year. While private finance supports “hard” transition assets such as energy and transport, social and economic priorities like job creation and community resilience remain underfunded. A Just Transition, therefore, calls for a co-investment approach that mobilises both public and private capital to fund inclusive outcomes. Across South Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, key financing platforms such as just energy transition partnerships (JETPs) are emerging, driving investment, fostering international collaboration, and catalysing private sector engagement. Yet many still face: ⚠️ Poorly prepared investment pipelines ⚠️ Weak community engagement ⚠️ Limited early-stage concessional funding To combat this, JETPs must focus on de-risking, strong governance, and localised project preparation. 📖 Read the full analysis: https://lnkd.in/gF_h6SbT Shantanu Srivastava, CFA | Soni Tiwari

🔻 Australia’s Thermal #Coal Exporters Are Losing Their Growth Markets New analysis led by Amandine Denis-Ryan and Anne-Louise Knight shows China and Southeast Asia, once key growth markets for Australian thermal coal, are approaching a turning point as they diversify their energy mix.   📉 Key findings: 🔹 China's coal use for power generation likely peaked, and total coal use is plateauing 🔹 Thermal coal imports into China forecast to fall by 22% in 2025, and over one third by 2030 🔹 #ASEAN is shifting to renewables and gas, with many countries halting new coal plants   #CCS is still too costly and unreliable to save coal-fired generation.   Rising domestic production and regional supply competition (Indonesia, Russia, Mongolia) are eroding Australia’s market share.   🌏 The global energy transition has hit coal’s last growth frontier.   📖 For further details, read the briefing note below ⤵️ https://lnkd.in/gNCf3UEA #EnergyTransition #ThermalCoal #Australia #China #ClimateRisk #Renewables #Decarbonisation #FossilFuels

Contrary to the U.S. administration's claims, coal is neither "clean" nor "beautiful." More to the point, it is neither economical nor reliable, as Dennis Wamsted and Seth Feaster highlight in an op-ed for The New York Times. The U.S. administration is betting that forcing #coal plants to stay open will spark a turnaround for coal-fired power generation. While these measures could prolong the operating lives of some coal plants for a short period, they will not reverse the decline of an industry hurtling into economic and technological obsolescence. As coal power struggles with high fuel, operation and maintenance costs, solar and #batterystorage costs are projected to continue falling while performance improves, further undercutting coal’s competitiveness. 📃Read the full piece here ⤵️ \https://lnkd.in/gFenqcsS

📬 Just out: IEEFA Australia’s latest newsletter Catch up on our latest insights across #coal, #gas, and green #iron 👇 🇮🇳 India’s metallurgical coal demand won’t save Australian miners 📄 Briefing note by Simon Nicholas & Saumya Nautiyal 🏗️ Queensland #coalmine closures aren’t about royalties 📄 Analysis by Andrew Gorringe 🔥 #Gas demand in eastern Australia is falling fast 📄 Insights by Joshua Runciman 🟢 Australia is losing ground in the global green iron race 📄 Insights by Soroush Basirat Read the newsletter 👇 https://lnkd.in/gPscBzbF #EnergyTransition #MetCoal #GasMarket #GreenIron #ClimateFinance #Mining #SteelIndustry #FossilFuels