Unemployment Falls to Record Low in Ukraine – But Not Poverty

The study identified difficulty affording food as a primary indicator of poverty.

The poverty level has remained relatively stable since March 2023, fluctuating around 25%. However, the data remains dubious due to the lack of credible data, Ukrainian demographer Ella Libanova previously stated to Channel24. 

In her interview with the BBC, she said that one-third of the Ukrainian population being poor is not a collapse, but the state should aim at more social support for the vulnerable to combat both poverty and unemployment – both in real money and non-cash programs. 

The Ukrainian labor market is struggling with a workforce deficit due to migration, mobilization and the consequences of war. 

Ukraine’s Ministry of Social Policy estimated that there were 4.6 million internally displaced persons as of January 2025 as a result of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Many had worked in destroyed regions but could not find new jobs in their new abodes. 

“There was a surplus of labor that could not find employment. Unemployment was estimated at around 20% in 2022,” deputy governor of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), Sergiy Nikolaychuk, previously told Kyiv Post in an interview. 

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“A large number of enterprises were destroyed, massive internal displacement took place, and many people migrated abroad,” Nikolaychuk added.

Currently, activity on the Ukrainian labor market, both in terms of labor demand and supply, is 10-15% lower than it was before the full-scale war, according to the CES tracker.

After 2022, recovering labor demand was complicated by continued migration abroad and mobilization to the Ukrainian military. Employees who remained in Ukraine did not always have skills that matched the new needs of Ukraine’s economy. 

“The demand increased in industries that previously didn’t need that much workforce. For example, drone manufacturing,” Nikolaychuk said.

In 2024, the NBU estimated unemployment at 13% – a mismatch of labor supply and demand that still creates pressure on the economy. “There remains a high demand for labor, but it cannot find a suitable supply, which is why the unemployment rate remains so high,” Nikolaychuk said.

To attract labor, enterprises also increased salaries by 14.4% in real terms in 2024. 

But 300,000 more Ukrainians had left the country in the same year due to the war, bringing the total number of refugees remaining outside Ukraine to 5.2 million as of November 2024. 

The longer the war lasts, the more Ukrainians will settle abroad, according to the CES research. 

As of 2025, job searches remain below pre-2022 levels. The number of new CVs posted ranges between 80% and 90% of the 2021 average, according to the tracker.

The number of vacancy announcements has also slowed, with new job ads plateauing at around 85–90% of the 2021 level. Labour market activity is higher than in 2024 but remains well below pre-2022 levels.

According to the CES, optimistically, 1.7 million people would remain abroad after the war. A moderate estimate suggests 2.3 million, while a pessimistic scenario projects that up to 2.7 million will remain abroad.