Oscars Shortlists Analysis: Watch Out for ‘Sirāt,’ Now Surging Among More Expected Contenders
Tuesday’s Oscar shortlists revealed two new categories this year, for a total of 12. This is the first year for the Casting category overall. Meanwhile, the Academy’s Cinematographers branch asked to be included in the shortlist, because they want to participate in the bakeoffs in January, when voters get to see the contenders showcase and explain their wares. (Watch the Costume and Production Designers follow suit soon enough.) Final nominees will be revealed on January 22, ahead of the Oscar show on March 15.
The other categories are Documentary Feature, International Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Makeup & Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects, as well as the Documentary, Live Action, and Animated Short films. IndieWire’s Oscar predictions are here.
Parsing the shortlist entries yields a sense of where the Oscar voting is leaning. Of the 10 Casting slots, for example, the six usual suspects for Best Picture are included (“Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle after Another,” “Sentimental Value,” and “Sinners”). All of these movies picked up multiple shortlists and will be in the running for Best Picture, along with “Wicked: For Good,” which, with “Sinners,” led the field overall with eight shortlist mentions and should also perform well at SAG’s Actor Awards.
If some of you wondered how well “Wicked: For Good” would do at the Oscars, we now know.
That leaves three Best Picture slots to fill. Potential adds in the Casting top 10 are international Oscar entries “Secret Agent” (Brazil) and “Sirāt” (Spain); Warner Bros.’ horror hit “Weapons” (which did not land Hair & Makeup for Amy Madigan’s transformation into a witch); along with “Train Dreams” which landed Cinematography, Score, and Song; and “Bugonia,” which nabbed CInematography and Score but not Hair & Makeup. Netflix’s would-be Oscar contenders “Jay Kelly,” “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery,” and “A House of Dynamite” only landed on the shortlist of 20 for Original Score. (With “Wake Up Dead Man” excluded from the Casting list despite its huge ensemble.)
Significantly missing from the shortlists is “The Testament of Ann Lee” (Searchlight), which was vying for craft recognition. The musical drama is still in the running for a Best Actress nomination for Amanda Seyfried, but the surge for “Wicked: For Good,” which could put Cynthia Erivo back in the final five, is real.
But “Sirāt” did surprisingly well, picking up five shortlists: Casting, Cinematography, International Feature, Score, and Sound. This is the biggest Oscar shortlist overachiever since “All Quiet on the Western Front,” which scored five shortlist mentions on the way to nine nominations and four wins, including Best International Feature.
German Oscar entry “Sound of Falling” also landed in Cinematography and International Feature. Lynne Ramsay’s “Die My Love” also landed in Best Cinematography for DP Seamus McGarvey, a movie that, even with Best Actress contender Jennifer Lawrence, will struggle to land in categories beyond this.
The Documentary Feature shortlist of 15 will yield five final nominees. Three Netflix titles are unlikely to all make that list: Brazilian Oscar nominee Petra Costa’s “Apocalypse in the Tropics,” first-time solo feature director Geeta Gandbhir’s “The Perfect Neighbor,” and Oscar-winner Laura Poitras’ “Cover-Up.” Last year, none of the shortlisted Netflix contenders made the final five, but these are stronger contenders with loyal followings.
Along with “The Perfect Neighbor” and “Cover-Up,” Andrew Jarecki’s “The Alabama Solution” (HBO), Heidi Ewing and Rachel Grady’s “Folktales” (Magnolia), Ryan White’s “Come See Me in the Good Light” (AppleTV), and Brittany Shyne’s “Seeds” are among the American entries. Last year, all five nominees boasted international pedigrees.
Among the international documentary entries are “2000 Meters to Andriivka,” from Oscar-winner Mstyslav Chernov, “Coexistence, My Ass!”, “Cutting through Rocks,” “Holding List,” “Mr. Nobody Against Putin,” “Mistress Dispeller,” critics’ group winner “My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow,” and “Yanuni.”
Missing from the shortlist of 15 are critics’ favorite “The Tale of Silyan,” “Predators,” “Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5,” “Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk,” “My Mom Jayne: A Film by Mariska Hargitay,” and “It’s Never Over, Jeff Buckley.”
The Best International Feature shortlist includes the five Neon frontrunners: Brazil’s “The Secret Agent,”
France’s Iranian film “It Was Just an Accident,” Norway’s “Sentimental Value,” South Korea’s “No Other Choice,” and Spain’s “Sirāt.”
If Neon doesn’t land all five, which one of the 15 might make the cut? Most likely Tunisia’s “The Voice of Hind Rajab” (Willa), which made a big splash at Venice and boasts a strong political message in support of Gaza.
Among the expected entries are Argentina’s “Belén” (Amazon), Germany’s “Sound of Falling” (Mubi), Iraq’s “The President’s Cake” (Sony Pictures Classics), Japan’s “Kokuho” (GKids), Jordan’s “All That’s Left of You” (Watermelon/Visibility), Switzerland’s “Late Shift” (Music Box), starring Leonie Benesch, and Taiwan’s “Left-Handed Girl” (Netflix). Surprises include India’s “Homebound,” which lacks a North American distributor, and Palestine’s “Palestine 36″ (Watermelon).
Three Palestine-themed films made the cut, between “Hind Rajab,” “All That’s Left of You,” and “Palestine 36.” There won’t be room for all of them in the final five.
Among the missing: “A Poet,” “My Father’s Shadow,” “Calle Malaga,” “Little Trouble Girls,” “Father,” “Magellan,” “Franz,” and “Kidnapping, Inc.”
The coming Guild nominations (DGA, PGA, and SAG) will reveal where the Oscar nominations are finally heading.
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