I’m feeling this in AOTY based on those ballots:

1. Kendrick
2. Gaga
3. Sabrina
4. Elton & Brandi
5. Tyler, the Creator
6. Bad Bunny
7. Jon Batiste
8. The Weeknd (though Lorde could replace him)

I’m only keeping The Weeknd cuz the sample was too white which might’ve helped Lorde

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Reposting, since Chris closed the last thread.

I’m not sure if I’ll make any changes, but I wanted to share my almost-final General Field predictions so we can discuss and debate them a bit. I’ll list them in order of what I think is most likely to get nominated.

Record of the Year

#8. Wet Leg – “catch these fists”

With the end of alphabetical bias, I think we could see some underdogs nominated in the main categories, especially for Record of the Year, which feels less competitive than Song of the Year. I went through my predictions and looked for dark-horses that felt the most “defining” of this eligibility period, and the one that stood out was Wet Leg’s “catch these fists.” It’s a bit of a longshot, but here’s why I think it could make the cut:

– Even though this track doesn’t have as many streams as some of the bigger songs from their debut, “catch these fists” has a lot of love among Wet Leg fans. And I suppose many GRAMMY voters are fans too. The band already got two wins in the Alternative field, a Best New Artist nomination and other two noms (and one win) in committee-voted categories.

– While Hayley Williams might be the favorite in the Alternative categories, “catch these fists” was submitted to Rock, and I think it could do well there. It’s Wet Leg’s most rock-influenced song, and with Rock and Alternative voters making up about 30% of the voting pool, I can see it catching votes from both sides. Plus, the last two years, the Rock Performance winners also received ROTY noms.

– I did some research using AI and it turns out Wet Leg is one of the 5 most visible artists in the Billboard GRAMMY Preview issue, alongside Bad Bunny, Cirkut, Clipse, and Kendrick Lamar. They’re really all over the place there, and it reminds me of how Mustard had a huge presence in the magazine last year, which led me to predict him. I know these are different situations, but visibility clearly plays a role, especially if I’m going with an underdog pick.

– Lastly, I personally don’t see mainstream tracks like “Anxiety,” “Golden,” “APT.,” and “MUTT (Live)” getting nominated, and I’m only not betting on Bad Bunny due to a potential vote split.

#7. Jon Batiste – “PETRICHOR”

While the Latin GRAMMY nominations showed some differences with the randomized ballot, even artists who some thought were only nominated before because of alphabetical order still managed to get in. That’s why, considering the weaker competition this year, I think Jon Batiste could still happen in the General Field. He’s a very respected artist with strong connections in the Recording Academy, and I can definitely see voters wanting to recognize this song’s recording. “PETRICHOR” could draw support from American Roots, Classical, Jazz, and even more traditional R&B voters.

#6. Billie Eilish – “WILDFLOWER”

I’m not confident about this prediction, and while Pop voters could go for Dan Nigro and Chappell Roan’s “The Subway” instead, the latter’s underperformance and lack of campaign still worry me. I think “WILDFLOWER” is a stronger bet for Song of the Year, but it’s still doing decent numbers and has solid playlist placement. Plus, Billie released a live rendition just a few days before voting started, which definitely helps visibility. She’s also done some internal campaigning, and the track could pick up extra support from Rock and Alternative voters.

#5. Justin Bieber – “DAISIES”

Also not 100% confident about this one, but it’s probably happening. There’s not much more to add. This will basically be the test to see if Justin Bieber truly is a GRAMMY darling or if he just benefited from alphabetical privilege in the past.

#4. Elton John & Brandi Carlile – “Who Believes In Angels?”

Not much to add here as well. They’re getting nominated across the board. It just feels like one of those obvious non-mainstream GRAMMY picks that checks every box.

#3. Sabrina Carpenter – “Manchild”

While I think Lady Gaga is the main pop name this year, I believe Sabrina Carpenter is here to stay. That Engineering nomination meant a lot, IMO, and “Manchild” could even be a potential winner here depending on how things play out. I also think it’ll get some extra support from the Country block.

#2. Lady Gaga – “Abracadabra”

I see Lady Gaga getting nominated all across the board, even though I don’t think “Abracadabra” is win-competitive in the General Field. It’s just too gay for voters. That said, it’s one of my favorite songs in the list.

#1. Kendrick Lamar, SZA – “luther”

No comment needed, it’s an obvious frontrunner.

Album of the Year

#8. Justin Bieber – SWAG

I’m just playing it safe here, especially considering the success of “DAISIES,” but I can easily see this one missing. I personally feel this wasn’t even 10% as good or popular as his last LP.

#7. The Weeknd – Hurry Up Tomorrow

I don’t really want to predict this… I’d much rather pick something like Clipse or Hayley Williams. But if I don’t, I just know that in a couple of months I’ll be saying, “Man, after everything Abel went through with the GRAMMYs, that was so obvious!”

Plus, this and SWAG are really the closest we’re getting to an R&B pick for Album of the Year, which tends to happen. We’ll see.

#6. Jon Batiste – BIG MONEY

Same reasoning as in my ROTY explanation. I mean, with over 20 submissions, he better show up here.

#5. Bad Bunny – DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS

This would be in the top 3 if voters still had alphabetical ballots. I’m not as confident it’s happening like I was before, but he has the perfect narrative and an upcoming Super Bowl.

Also, this is the best album on the list. Period.

#4. Elton John, Brandi Carlile – Who Believes In Angels?

Basically the same reasoning I used in my ROTY explanation. Plus, Brandi hasn’t missed an AOTY nomination in ages.

#3. Sabrina Carpenter – Man’s Best Friend

The same reasoning I used in my ROTY explanation, but I don’t see this as competitive to win here.

#2. Lady Gaga – MAYHEM

I mean, the last minute of “Killah” is easily one of the best musical moments of 2025.

#1. Kendrick Lamar – GNX

As Lizzo said: it’s about damn time!

Song of the Year

#8. “The Birds Don’t Sing” (performed by Clipse, John Legend & Voices of Fire)

Yes, I know we’re not supposed to predict Rap in the General Field unless it’s JAY-Z, Kendrick Lamar, or the late Kanye West, but like I said in the Rap thread, Pusha T has earned a lot of respect with the great Let God Sort Em Out. Instant classic. I don’t have it in AOTY right now, but honestly, they changed the ballot order so songs like “The Birds Don’t Sing” can get nominated. The lyrics are sensitive, emotional, and it’s a great track featuring the once-GRAMMY darling John Legend, with Stevie Wonder in the composition credits.

Clipse campaigned heavily at the right time, including releasing a video for this track during first-round voting. Plus, we just saw a rap diss track win five GRAMMYs last year, and Clipse even performed this song at the freaking Vatican. I’m counting on it.

#7. “DtMF” (performed by Bad Bunny)

Even though it was a hit where I live, I personally don’t like this song. But with no “BAILE INoLVIDABLE” in the competition, it’ll be easier for Bad Bunny to get in here. Nice lyrics, though. I wonder if it would be win-competitive if it actually gets nominated here and not in ROTY, potentially creating a split… even considering that “The Birds Don’t Sing” would likely take some votes away from “luther”.

#6. “WILDFLOWER” (performed by Billie Eilish)

This would be a nice nomination because it’s actually a really good track with nice lyrics. I really like the storytelling here.

#5. “DAISIES” (performed by Justin Bieber)

Basically the same reasoning I gave in my ROTY explanation.

#4. “Abracadabra” (performed by Lady Gaga)

I have this a little lower because I don’t see it winning here in any way. If, by some awful surprise, Gaga isn’t the player most of us expect this year, I could see this missing SOTY. But that’s very unlikely.

#3. “Who Believes In Angels?” (performed by Elton John & Brandi Carlile)

There’s a world where this could be the next SOTY winner.

#2. “Manchild” (performed by Sabrina Carpenter)

I strongly believe this is getting nominated, even though it’s not my runner-up for a win here.

#1. “luther” (performed by Kendrick Lamar & SZA)

I don’t know why so many people refuse to believe this could win both Record and Song of the Year. For me, it would be similar to the wins of “Leave the Door Open.” The hit pays homage to the great Luther Vandross, Kendrick is probably the frontrunner for the main categories, and it’s one of the best songs in this lineup. It’s the most likely to get nominated and, at the moment, it’s currently my winner prediction too.

Best New Artist

#8. Alex Warren

That video of Doja Cat and FKA Twigs reacting to “Ordinary” at the VMAs is exactly how I think his reception at the GRAMMYs will be. He should’ve worked on his narrative more. No further comment.

#7. The Marías

I could easily see them missing, especially since they didn’t release anything major this year. Also, I don’t think María Zargoya’s side project released during voting actually helped them, GRAMMY-wise…

#6. Mariah the Scientist

Playing it safe. The R&B block is big, and voters could easily nominate two BNA representatives in this weak year. It also makes sense to me, since I’m also considering two more nods for her.

#5. Addison Rae

I totally get why people aren’t predicting her, but I fear she’s too big to deny. From headlining music festivals and having sold-out shows to critical acclaim and strong media presence, she was everywhere this summer. Addison might not have the same numbers as some others predicted here, but she has something more special: branding.

#4. Lola Young

She could’ve been positioned one or two spots higher on my list if she had continued campaigning, but the awareness of mental health in the music industry keeps growing every year, and what she’s been through might have made voters more attentive to her work. Plus, she has an amazing voice and seems like a genuinely nice person.

#3. sombr

I don’t know if he’s an undeniable hitmaker or just has an undeniable ton of fans, but either way, he’s happening here.

#2. Olivia Dean

Nice “feel-good” music, charting at the right moment for nominations, could get votes from both Pop and R&B blocks, one of the most visible artists in the Billboard GRAMMY Preview issue… I see Olivia as a near lock here!

#1. Leon Thomas

I can’t see a lineup without him. Leon’s winning at least one R&B GRAMMY next year, already has the industry connections, and from what I’ve been hearing here, he’s doing some internal campaigning too. I think he’s winning.

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Giordano_Bruno_1 wrote:

M wrote:

I’m feeling this in AOTY based on those ballots:

1. Kendrick
2. Gaga
3. Sabrina
4. Elton & Brandi
5. Tyler, the Creator
6. Bad Bunny
7. Jon Batiste
8. The Weeknd (though Lorde could replace him)

I’m only keeping The Weeknd cuz the sample was too white which might’ve helped Lorde

where are they?

Musicians vote for Album and Song of the Year

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Get real! Lorde could NOT replace The Weekend in Album of the Year. Pure delusion. Girlfriend will receive 0 nominations for her bombed era.

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🚨RECORD OF THE YEAR

Miley Cyrus – End of the World
Sabrina Carpenter- Manchild
Lady Gaga- Abracadabra
The Weeknd – Timless
Kendrick Lamar – Luther
Bruno Mars and Rose- APT
Bad Bunny – DTMF

2 more artists to be confirmed later

— G R A M M Y S (@GrammySinsider_) October 29, 2025

And some poor Miley fan will believe this…
💙💙💙

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I just put Miley in AOTY and took out The Weeknd. He got 1 mention in the white people sample, hopefully Grammys being more diverse these days can help him a bit. 💋 💋 💋

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@Strangemercy I really like these picks and agree with most of them. I feel the same way about Daisies. Right now, Daisies and The Subway are the two that I’m the least confident about, but I don’t want to count them out just yet.

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