Terrestrial carbon is a highly valued resource due to its ecological, timber, and smoke impacts, as well as reasons related to atmospheric greenhouse gas cycling. While sequestering carbon in forests can be effective, terrestrial carbon resources are at risk from wildfire of varying likelihood and intensity. We quantified wildfire risk to carbon in forests and rangelands across the continental US through related but separate modeling approaches, and developed a web-based tool for visualizing and downloading these data. Users can also perform simple analyses using their own area of interest. Potential uses of these data include quantifying project-level wildfire risk to carbon and estimation of carbon emissions from realized wildfires.

This research involved applying an actuarial risk framework to estimate expected carbon remaining and smoke emissions across the continental United States by incorporating wildfire likelihood, wildfire intensity probabilities for six flame lengths (1’, 3’, 5’, 7’, 10’ and 20’), and carbon response. Wildfire likelihood and intensity were obtained from Large Fire Simulator (FSim) outputs circa 2014 and 2020. Forest carbon response was estimated by simulating each forest plot in TreeMap and accompanying fuels from FuelMap within the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator for six fire intensities. In rangelands, we modeled standing carbon from allometries applied to LANDFIRE vegetation cover and heights, Rangeland Analysis Platform outputs, and models calibrated to the Fuel Characteristic Classification System. Rangeland carbon responses were simulated in SpatialFOFEM. Carbon response estimates were weighted by conditional fire intensity probability maps and burn probability to produce expected annual responses.

Presenters: Karin Riley and Rachel Houtman, Forest Service Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory

This webinar is part of the US Forest Service's Missoula Fire Lab Seminar Series.