America's biggest ever tax refunds are coming... and these nine stocks are tipped to BOOM. Here's how to cash in
Americans will see bigger tax refunds in 2026 - and Wall Street is already working out who could benefit most.
The IRS tax filing season kicked off on Monday, January 26, with officials expecting about 164 million individual returns.
Tax experts and Trump officials alike say millions of households could receive unusually large checks in early 2026 after unknowingly overpaying taxes throughout last year. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there would be 'gigantic' refunds for working Americans.
The reason is a quirk of timing.
President Donald Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act,' signed in July, cut taxes retroactively to the start of 2025 - but the IRS never updated paycheck withholding tables.
Most refunds usually land back in Americans' accounts between mid-February and early March, once payouts tied to the additional child tax credit and earned income tax credit are released - historically creating a short but powerful burst of consumer spending.
That burst looks set to be bigger this year. The Tax Foundation estimates the average tax cut will be worth about $3,752 per filer nationwide in 2026. For the past two years it has hovered around $3,000.
Wolfe Research said that surge of refund cash could give a short-term boost to companies that rely on everyday consumer spending. The firm has highlighted a basket of nine stocks it thinks will be the biggest winners, adding they could be good options for Americans to add to their portfolios.
Analysts say tax refund season often fuels a spike in cruise bookings when Americans put extra cash toward vacations
'Our sense is these companies will benefit from extra spending from lower-income consumers as 2026 tax refunds rise,' Wolfe chief investment strategist Chris Senyek wrote in a recent report.
According to analysts, it's retailers that stand to benefit the most - and Costco, specifically, is estimated to be one of the biggest winners.
Earlier this month, Bernstein analyst Zhihan Ma named the wholesale shop as a top beneficiary because it has plenty of higher income customers who are likely to use their refund money there.
And while some of the big box store's investors worry about whether Costco can keep growing its membership fees at a steady pace, Ma said the company has other ways of making money. These include nudging existing shoppers to higher-tier memberships and expanding its fast-growing advertising business inside stores and online. International growth is also seen as a long-term plus.
Out of the basket of companies that will benefit, Costco's share price is the one that has grown the least over the past month - meaning it has more room to rise in the near future.
Plus, across Wall Street, 25 of the 38 analysts rate its stock as a buy or strong buy, according to LSEG, which estimates it could rise nine percent this year.
But refund cash isn't just spent in stores.
Darden Restaurants, which owns Olive Garden and LongHorn Steakhouse, is often a quiet winner during tax refund season, according to Wolfe.
Analysts say refund checks tend to push families toward affordable sit-down meals and small 'treat' outings - exactly the space Olive Garden occupies.
Chris Senyek (pictured), chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research, said higher tax refunds in 2026 could drive a burst of consumer spending across retail, dining and travel
Pictured: A shopper lines up at a checkout at Costco. Costco is one of the retailers analysts say could benefit as Americans use tax refunds for bulk groceries and big-ticket purchases
Online trading platform Robinhood Markets could also see a boost if taxpayers use refunds to invest.
Piper Sandler recently named Robinhood a top pick, saying it has become the default investing app for younger Americans.
When stimulus checks were sent out during the pandemic, many Americans used them to invest in stocks.
Analysts point to Robinhood's newer products, including prediction markets launched in 2025, which have quickly become one of the company's fastest-growing revenue streams.
Even after a huge run-up in the stock over the past year, many analysts still see room for further gains. The company is ranked a buy or strong buy among 21 of 26 analysts who monitor it, according to LSEG.
Beyond Costco, Darden and Robinhood, Wolfe's list of companies that stand to benefit from working Americans' tax returns includes discount retailers, cruise operators and used car sellers - since refund money is often spent on necessities, travel and catching up financially.
For example, Dollar General - whose stock is up almost 120 percent year-on-year - typically sees a surge in shoppers when refunds arrive, especially in rural areas where it often serves as the main grocery option.
Off-price retail group TJX Companies, which owns TJ Maxx and Marshalls, is a frequent winner during refund season, too, as shoppers use the extra cash to refresh wardrobes and hunt for bargains.
Carnival shares could also benefit since cruise bookings often jump after returns hit people's pockets - consumers have been know to put refund money toward vacations or deposits on future trips.
Analysts say refund season can translate into more family meals and casual nights out at Olive Garden as budgets briefly loosen
Pictured: A smartphone shows someone using a trading app. Analysts say some Americans funnel tax refunds into stocks, crypto and short-term investing - a move that could help Robinhood
Pictured: President Donald Trump signs the sweeping One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law at the White House in July. The move triggering major changes to deductions, charitable giving and year-end tax planning for millions of Americans
Tax refunds can also help buyers cover down payments or catch up on car-related expenses, particularly for used vehicles, and Carvana is one public company that could benefit from that.
But economists warn the bigger tax refunds - and the burst of spending they drive - could come with a downside if they fuel price hikes.
A sudden wave of refunds could add to inflation pressures - even if only temporarily - at a time when prices are still rising faster than many households and policymakers would like.
Jonathan Parker, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told CNBC that large one-off payments like tax refunds can push up demand and prices - much like how pandemic-era stimulus checks were later blamed for adding to inflation.
