White-collar jobs freeze as companies map out 2026 with fewer workers
Companies mapping out their plans for 2026 are sending a stark message to workers: at best hiring is on hold - and at worst job cuts are coming.
Across corporate America, executives say they plan to keep payrolls flat or shrink them next year.
The reason why is one that will send shivers down the spines of white collar workers.
Bosses say they will be relying more heavily on technology, particularly artificial intelligence, to take on work that once required new staff.
At a recent gathering of chief executives in New York hosted by the Yale School of Management, 66 percent of leaders surveyed said they plan either to cut jobs or keep head counts flat in 2026.
Only a third said they expect to hire.
A separate survey points to the same conclusion - and suggests layoffs may accelerate.
In November, executive search firm Spencer Stuart asked 90 chief marketing officers how aggressively they plan to use AI to reduce payrolls.
Bosses say they will be relying more heavily on technology, particularly artificial intelligence, to take on work that once required new staff
More than one in three said they expect to lay off workers in the next 12 to 24 months as they deploy more AI tools.
Among companies valued above $20 billion, nearly half said they are planning significant job cuts.
Taken together, the surveys paint a clear picture: companies are pausing hiring while actively preparing for a smaller workforce.
'You're going to see a lot of wait and see,' said Chris Layden, chief executive of staffing firm Kelly Services.
'The uncertainty means companies are investing more in capital and technology than in people.'
Hiring platform Indeed says the result is likely to be another year of weak job growth, especially for white-collar workers.
The slowdown has been building for months.
The unemployment rate stood at 4.4 percent in December. It was down slightly on the 4.6 percent in November, which was its highest level in four years.
The unemployment rate stood at 4.4 percent in December
Another 30,000 UPS workers are on the chopping block this year as the parcel delivery service looks to further reduce its network, volume of deliveries and costs.
While healthcare and education continue to add jobs, hiring in office-based roles has slowed sharply.
Major employers including Amazon, Verizon, Target and UPS have cut corporate jobs in the past six months, adding to anxiety among white-collar workers.
Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said companies are holding back as they try to understand how artificial intelligence will reshape their workforces.
'We're close to zero job growth. That's not a healthy labor market,' Waller said.
'When I talk to CEOs, they tell me they're not hiring because they're trying to figure out what AI can replace - and what it can't.'
The Spencer Stuart survey focused on marketing roles - including copywriters, designers, data analysts and PR staff - but analysts say the trend extends well beyond that field.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics latest jobs figures, covering December, showed that 7.5 million Americans are unemployed, as tech layoffs mount and small businesses quietly trim staff.
Some companies say they are also still correcting for pandemic-era over-hiring.
Hiring platform Indeed predicts another year of weak job growth, especially for white-collar workers, such as Wall Street traders like the men pictured
It comes months after CEO Andy Jassy said Amazon would reduce its corporate headcount as it increases its use of Artificial Intelligence
At IBM, employee departures are at their lowest level in three decades, according to CEO Arvind Krishna. Voluntary quits in the US have fallen below 2 percent, down from a typical 7 percent.
'People aren't looking to change jobs,' Krishna said. 'And that naturally leads to less hiring.'
Executives at several major companies have publicly echoed that view. Shopify's chief financial officer said the company does not expect to increase head count next year, while Chime Financial has pledged to keep staffing levels flat.
At Wells Fargo, CEO Charlie Scharf said the bank expects to enter 2026 with fewer employees than it had before the pandemic. Its workforce has fallen from about 275,000 in 2019 to roughly 210,000 today.
Scharf said AI's impact on staffing will be 'extremely significant,' even if many executives are reluctant to spell it out publicly. 'No one wants to stand up and say we're going to have lower head count in the future,' he said.
Some leaders have been more blunt.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that AI 'will eliminate jobs,' urging workers to build skills in critical thinking, communication and writing. Executives at Walmart, Ford and Amazon have issued similar warnings.
Others argue the threat may be overstated - for now.
'The real transformation is task-level, not job-level,' said Abigail Wright, a senior advisor at the National Chamber of Commerce. 'Workers who learn how to direct AI, rather than compete with it, will be the most resilient.'
Still, economists at Indeed expect little improvement next year, forecasting unemployment to hover around 4.6 percent in 2026. Hiring remains strongest in healthcare and construction, while job postings are weakest in software development, data analytics, marketing and entertainment.
'There's a limit to how long you can have low hiring and low firing in a growing economy,' said Laura Ullrich, Indeed's director of economic research. 'At some point, something has to shift.'
For now, companies appear content to wait - and workers are holding tightly to the jobs they have.
