U.S. holiday sales data and forecasts
Nov 28 (Reuters) - The United States holiday shopping season started in earnest with the Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Thursday, Nov. 26 to Sunday, Nov. 30 and includes Black Friday, which often ranks as the busiest shopping day of the year.
The November-December holiday season is crucial for many retailers because the two months can account for anywhere from 20 to 40 percent of their annual sales.
Below is a list of some of the key data points and projections that has been released or will be published in the coming days.
SHOPPERTRAK SURVEY
On Saturday, retail analytics firm ShopperTrak projected that combined sales in physical stores stood at $12.1 billion over Thanksgiving and Black Friday. The company said it is an "estimated decrease from last year" but did not give the percentage decline due to an internal change in the way it calculates data. Last year, it reported sales of $12.29 billion for the same period.
ShopperTrak's projections are based in part on traffic data from tens of thousands of devices installed at bricks-and-mortar locations across the United States. Because the forecast is limited to in-store conditions, it does not capture the growing share of sales online.
The importance of the Thanksgiving weekend has also waned somewhat in recent years as retailers promote earlier in the season and demand shifts online. Last year ShopperTrak said in-store sales fell 0.5 percent over Thanksgiving and Black Friday.
RETAILNEXT
On Saturday, analytics firm RetailNext published a projection of traffic and sales for Thanksgiving and Black Friday based on transaction data. It said overall sales for both days fell 1.5 percent on flat customer traffic, while average spending per shopper dropped 1.4 percent.
Last year it said it found overall shopper traffic on Black Friday fell 14 percent, but that the average shopper spending rose 1.9 percent.
ADOBE SYSTEMS
Adobe Systems Inc said Saturday online sales for Thanksgiving and Black Friday rose 18 percent to $4.4 billion.
Adobe's projections are based on aggregated data from consumer visits to more than 4,500 retail Websites that it tracks. Adobe said its projections are within 2 percent of the actual spending on those Websites.
NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION
On Sunday, the National Retail Federation (NRF) will publish the results of its spending survey for the Thanksgiving weekend. The online survey asks a few thousand people how much they spent or planned to spend over the weekend - both in stores and online.
The data is not considered to be a strong indicator of sales in the holiday season, especially given the move by retailers in recent years to promote earlier in November and the growing importance of online sales, including on Cyber Monday, which falls after the Thanksgiving weekend. Last year the NRF said total spending fell 11 percent over Thanksgiving weekend, while sales for the entire holiday season rose 4.1 percent.
COMSCORE SURVEY OF DESKTOP PURCHASES
On Sunday, comScore, a retail analytics firm, publishes a projection of U.S. online purchases made through desktop computers on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Last year, comScore said online sales made through desktop computers rose 32 percent to $1.01 billion on Thanksgiving and 26 percent to $1.5 billion on Black Friday.
The data does not capture purchases made through mobile phones, which IBM estimates will account for more than 40 percent of the online traffic and about 20 percent of sales this Thanksgiving weekend.
MASTERCARD SPENDINGPULSE SURVEY
MasterCard Advisors will publish its report of Black Friday sales next week. The report tracks spending by combining sales activity in MasterCard's payments network with estimates of cash and other payment forms.
GOVERNMENT DATA
Every month the U.S. Commerce Department releases data on U.S. retail sales. For October 2015 sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services - the so-called core retail sales figure - rose 0.2 percent from a year earlier. The results for the holiday season, which includes November and December, will not be clear until the data for December is announced in mid-January.
CUSTOMER GROWTH PARTNERS
Retail consultancy Customer Growth Partners is projecting that core retail sales will rise 3.2 percent this holiday season to $607 billion, a deceleration from the 4.6 percent growth logged in November and December of last year. CGP's projection is based on Commerce Department data, excluding autos, gasoline and oil, and food services and restaurants.
NATIONAL RETAIL FEDERATION
The National Retail Federation also publishes a sales forecast in October for the entire holiday season, which includes November and December. This year, the NRF is forecasting sales growth of 3.7 percent, down from 4.1 percent in 2014, a deceleration it has attributed to slow job creation and household income growth.
The NRF's forecast is based on several economic indicators including consumer credit, disposable personal income and prior results for monthly retail sales releases. The forecast combines online and in-store retail sales. (reporting by Nathan Layne and Nandita Bose; Editing by Nick Zieminski)
