Federal fallout in NSW election
Marshmallow politics or professional campaigning?
Whatever you call the lead-up to this Saturday's NSW state election, it will have federal implications.
Labor victories in the Victorian poll in November and Queensland in January have coalition strategists nervous about the NSW result.
While the writing was on the wall in Victoria, Queensland's loss came as a shock, given the size of Campbell Newman's majority.
Many federal coalition MPs squarely pointed the finger at Tony Abbott and 39 disgruntled members voted for a spill motion on February 9.
Since the near-death experience the prime minister has been working overtime to ditch unpopular policies, make seat-specific promises to backbenchers and reframe his budget and economic message.
He admitted the government bit off more than it could chew in the first budget. The second, he promises, will be "dull" as well as "measured, responsible and fair".
His new language has taken some of the federal heat out of the NSW campaign.
But the PM has still largely been sidelined from any role in it.
Polls are pointing to a Labor gain in NSW of between 15 and 20 seats, but not enough to topple Mike Baird's government.
An unlikely Labor win would have profound implications for Abbott's leadership.
As state Labor leader Luke Foley said at a Sydney rally this week: "If Mr Baird goes on Saturday, Mr Abbott goes on the Monday."
Liberal insiders have said there is a negative "Abbott effect" of between three and seven per cent across Nationals and Liberal seats in NSW.
However, happily for the Liberals, the personal popularity of Baird is largely countering this effect.
The Liberals have turned to Malcolm Turnbull for a large amount of fundraising and campaigning, from brunch events to "robo-calling" voters in seats needing a last-minute boost.
Federal Labor leader Bill Shorten made fun of this in question time on Thursday.
"Why do NSW Liberals prefer a recorded Malcolm Turnbull to a real prime minister?" he asked, just before Speaker Bronwyn Bishop ruled it out of order.
Abbott attended the NSW Liberal campaign launch but did not speak.
He has been involved in announcements on infrastructure and security, and some fundraising, but mostly kept out of the campaign.
Asked about it this week, Abbott said the campaign was a "team effort".
Former PM John Howard was brought into the team, aptly describing the electoral landscape as "volatile".
"A learner like Luke Foley fluking an election win with local protest votes after just one term out of office would bring NSW to a screeching halt," he said in a letter to voters.
Labor's campaign, supported by unions, has focused heavily on the Baird government's long-term leasing of electricity assets to pay for health, education and roads.
The anti-privatisation campaign - involving an army of volunteers doorknocking, making calls, tweeting and sending emails - destroyed Queensland's Newman government and is expected to wrench seats from the coalition in NSW.
But at a lower level the opposition has been talking about a coal seam gas moratorium, school funding, hospitals, no TAFE course fees and environmental projects such as marine and koala protection.
Former federal Labor leader Mark Latham has described such micro-policies as "marshmallow politics" - tiny, sweet morsels that could be easily digested in local electorates.
Health and hospitals appears to be resonating as an issue, especially as the sector relies so heavily on federal funding.
Even Baird accepts that the 2014 federal budget shifted costs onto the states in a way that was "not sustainable".
He hopes the upcoming white paper on the federation to be released by Abbott mid-year goes a long way to restoring the balance.
A review of commonwealth grants could also bring a political problem for the next NSW premier and his colleagues in other states.
A change in the grants formula, and potentially the GST distribution, could reshuffle money from one side of the continent to the other.
Picking a fight with Canberra will be on the cards for whoever wins on Saturday.
