Are we in for another hot summer?

By Elizabeth Hopkirk, Evening Standard

Last updated at 11:16 14 May 2004


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Glastonbury: transformed by sunshine

We were told it was going to be a dreadful summer. Washed-out Wimbledon, rainy August Bank Holiday and clouds in between.

But now it seems the forecast may be rather brighter.

In an attempt to put our readers' minds at rest, the Evening Standard has asked the country's finest forecasters to tell us what the summer has in store.

The answer? Well, while we won't see a repeat of last year's heatwave, it will be quite warm. Then again, it will rain - but not too much. In other words, get the picnic things out of the cupboard... but take an umbrella just in case.

'We won't be breaking the 100F (38C) record again,' said Jim Dale, senior forecaster at British Weather Services.

'But equally, we don't expect it to be a particularly poor summer. There will be two or three lengthy heatwaves.'

He said it was shaping up like a typical summer, with three good weeks and three poor ones with thunder, rain and cooler days.

Early June could be quite wet, but the first heatwave should kick in towards the end of the month, with two more in late July and late August. But as September arrives the heavens will open, Mr Dale predicted.

Michael Dukes, meteorologist at the PA Weather Centre, said: 'Long-range forecasting is not based on any science I believe in. If tomorrow's forecast is 95 per cent accurate then there's a five per cent margin of error and by the time you get to a week and a half ahead it's very, very wrong.'

But statistically good summers come in pairs, so he put his money on another good year.

Long range forecast for this summer's big events This is how the summer appears to be shaping up, according to TV weatherman Simon Keeling, of Bill Giles's www.weatherweb.net First Test against New Zealand; Lords, 20-24 May: showers, quite dull and cool FA Cup Final; Millennium Stadium, 22 May: dry with sunny spells Royal Ascot; 15-19 June: first day could be a bit damp but otherwise dry and warm Glastonbury; 25-27 June: sunny spells and a few showers. The run-up should be dry, so it shouldn't turn into a mud bath Wimbledon; 21 June-4 July: first week dry, sunny and warm. Maybe a few showers in the second week British Grand Prix; Silverstone, 9-11 July: dry and sunny with temperatures about average for the month Goodwood; 27-31 July: sunny spells but the risk of some fairly heavy showers Notting Hill Carnival and the August Bank Holiday; 28-30 August: getting cooler,with the risk of the odd shower

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