Istanbul faces earthquake, says expert

Last updated at 12:10 12 March 2003


The city of Istanbul could be hit by a massive earthquake in the near future, according to scientists who have developed a new way to predict seismic events.

The prediction has been made by Professor Geoffrey King, who has been studying how separate earthquakes are linked, and how they tend to occur in 'earthquake storms'.

He has warned the Turkish authorities, who are now taking action to minimise damage if the prediction turns out to be true.

Professor King used his techniques to forecast a quake in the coastal city of Izmit in 1999 - but his specific warnings were ignored and some 25,000 people were killed.

While many scientists still believe that separate earthquakes are totally unrelated, Professor King has studied data from more than 40 earthquakes across the Mediterranean region over the last few years, and has come to the conclusion that they are connected and can trigger each other.

He is now convinced that fault lines close to the Turkish city are under severe stress and will lead to a large quake sooner rather than later.

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