Explosive warning from America's house price Nostradamus: New forecast tracking over 300 markets reveals 'rare' shift... the boomtowns set to sink... and surprising winners
After a decade of wild price increases, America's housing market is entering a new phase - and the era of relentless nationwide gains is over.
A new forecast from Moody's Analytics lays out what comes next, mapping how house prices are expected to move nationally over the next decade, and how outcomes will differ across more than 300 individual US markets.
Over the next two years, home prices across the US will be broadly flat, according to Moody's, with gains in some regions offset by slumps in others.
Even after that, they are projected to rise only modestly until 2035 - and once inflation is taken into account, homeowners should not expect any meaningful 'real' gains.
Cristian de Ritis, deputy chief economist at Moody's, said this period of stagnation could mark a rare reset after years of runaway growth.
'If prices remain relatively flat for a while, incomes will have time to catch up,' he told the Daily Mail. 'That improves affordability - not just for buyers, but also for renters.'
In practical terms, that means places that became painfully unaffordable during the pandemic boom may slowly come back within reach. But for buyers who stretched to purchase near the peak, they will end up owing more than their house is worth.
But the shift will not play out evenly, the experts say. They predict the next decade will be defined by a stark regional divide - one you can explore in our interactive map below.
Markets along the Pacific Coast and in parts of the Northeast are expected to see stronger long-term price growth, while much of the South, Southeast and central US faces years of slow or near-zero gains.
The difference comes down to supply of homes. In some regions, limited land, restrictive zoning and resistance to large-scale development have kept new homebuilding constrained.
Others - areas that exploded during the pandemic housing rush and then built aggressively to meet demand - are now dealing with the hangover.
'Selected markets in the South and West that experienced above-average house price growth and expanded homebuilding over the past five years will see prices fall,' de Ritis said.
'Meanwhile, markets in the Northeast and along the Pacific Coast are expected to hold up given more limited homebuilding and robust demand.'
National forces are also shaping supply across the entire country.
One is the 'golden handcuffs' effect. Millions of homeowners are sitting on ultra-low mortgage rates locked in during the pandemic.
Selling would mean giving them up and taking on far higher monthly payments - something many are unwilling to do.
Economist Michael Szanto said the reluctance to move is weighing on activity.
'Many people don't want to sell or move because their existing mortgages have very low interest rates,' he told the Daily Mail.
'On top of that, Americans grappling with higher living costs and an uncertain job market have gotten more cautious about making big financial moves.'
Supply of new homes has also been dented by the simple fact they have become much pricier to build.
Rising labor costs, shortages of skilled workers and higher prices for key materials have pushed construction costs higher, limiting how quickly supply can adjust even as demand cools.
Over the next two years, home prices across the US will be broadly flat, with gains in some regions offset by slumps in others
Pictured: Economist Michael Szanto
Another national supply force is demographic. As Baby Boomers have aged, they have remained in their homes longer than previous generations, keeping properties off the market and tightening supply in the short term.
But that is expected to reverse as we approach 2035. As Boomers downsize, move into care facilities or pass homes on to heirs, more housing is likely to re-enter the market - particularly in suburban and Sun Belt areas where older homeowners are concentrated.
Together, these forces have produced a housing market that no longer moves in unison nationwide. Instead, local conditions - migration patterns, demographics and building constraints - are increasingly becoming the deciding factors.
Many of the slowest markets are clustered in the Southeast, including Miami, Nashville, Charlotte and Charleston - places that were among the biggest winners of the work-from-anywhere era.
As pandemic migration fades, the market is feeling the sting of overdevelopment and the fleeing of folks from those one-time boomtowns.
The Miami area, once one of America's hottest housing markets, is forecast to see prices fall 2.11 percent in 2026, following a 0.78 percent decline in 2025.
For homeowners who bought near the peak, that could mean years of paper losses after one of the fastest run-ups on record.
Nashville is expected to see an even steeper dip. Prices there are projected to fall 1.86 percent next year, after declining 1.58 percent over the past 12 months - a sharp reversal for a city that came to symbolize the pandemic housing boom.
By contrast, some of the biggest long-term winners may surprise buyers.
Nashville is expected to see a steep dip - prices there are projected to fall 1.86 percent next year (Pictured: homes in Nashville)
Sacramento (pictured) is one of the many areas in California projected to see house prices rise drastically over the next decade
In California, several inland markets are poised for dramatic gains as chronic undersupply collides with steady demand.
Sacramento is forecast to see house prices rise more than 40 percent over the next decade, with Bakersfield, Chico, Fresno, Modesto, Stockton, Visalia and Vallejo expected to post similar surges.
In the Northeast, cities such as Pittsburgh, Rochester and Albany are also projected to see some of the region's strongest price growth.
