Why Scott Morrison will call an election this year - and there's already a perfect six-week gap in parliament to hold one
- Prime minister has said he will last a 'full term' in government until May 2022
- But MPs from both sides of politics believe he'll call the poll late this year
- Analysts say he will want to capitalise on his succesful handling of Covid-19
Speculation is growing that Scott Morrison will call a general election this year
Scott Morrison is widely tipped to call a general election this year to capitalise on his success at dealing with Covid-19.
In October the prime minister said at a press briefing that he will last a 'full term' which would mean no election until May 2022.
But MPs from both sides of politics believe he'll call the poll early to take advantage of his popularity over Labor leader Anthony Albanese.
The latest Newspoll on 29 November put Mr Morrison 32 points ahead of Mr Albanese as preferred prime minister, although the parties were close with the Coalition leading 51-49.
Analysts believe Mr Morrison is being rewarded for his effective response to coronavirus. Australia has seen only 909 deaths and 28,499 infections since the outbreak began, compared with 74,570 deaths in the UK and 351,000 in the US.
The pandemic has also played into the government's hands because it has allowed Mr Morrison to dominate media coverage.
Mr Albanese has struggled to land a significant blow on the government despite its various scandals including targeting sports grants to Coalition seats, overpaying for land at Western Sydney Airport and overseeing the failed Robodebt scheme.
One Liberal MP told Daily Mail Australia the prime minister is all too aware of his advantage and won't be shy about pressing it home by calling an early ballot.
'He said he'll do a full term but he's a pragmatic guy,' the MP said.
Labor politicians are also braced for an early poll, with one telling Daily Mail Australia that spring is the most likely time.
The latest Newspoll on 29 November put Mr Morrison 32 points ahead of Mr Albanese (pictured) as preferred prime minister, although the parties were close with the Coalition leading 51-49
Former Liberal leader John Hewson also said he expects an election this year.
'Morrison is in the box seat but if he leaves the election until 2022 then he could face more blame for the economic downside of coronavirus,' he told Daily Mail Australia.
'JobKeeper is going to run out, JobSeeker will decrease and businesses will hit the wall so there could be real electoral pain.'
The Morrison government has been pumping billions into the economy, racking up a budget deficit of an estimated $198billion this year - but most of the spending is on short-term, temporary relief.
'The job impact of that money has not been seen yet and this gives opportunity for the Labor Party to do more in service areas such as aged care, child care and schools,' Mr Hewson said.
The government expects that all Australians who want a jab will be vaccinated by the end of the year and unemployment will peak at 7.5 per cent in March before falling to 6.25 per cent in June 2022.
'These are ambitious assumptions and they could fall short,' Mr Hewson said.
'There is enormous uncertainty over wages, jobs, the vaccine and the assumption that people will spend money.
'Morrison is making problems with these expectations and the longer he leaves it until an election the more difficulty he's going to have.
'If he waits until 2022 he could get mugged by the economic reality.'
Prime Minister Scott Morrison celebrates winning the 2019 election with his family at the Wentworth Sofitel Hotel in Sydney
In terms of the timing, convention dictates that House and Senate elections are held on the same day, meaning the latest date Mr Morrison could hold a general election is May 21, 2022 when half the senate must face the polls.
(Technically, Mr Morrison could hold a separate election for the House by 3 September 2022, but this hasn't been done for 50 years).
The Australian's political editor Dennis Shanahan has highlighted a suspicious six-week gap in the parliament sitting calendar in September and October this year, which may have been carved out for an election.
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But he has also calculated that there are 18 possible Saturdays on which an election could be held between August and December 2021. By law, elections must be held on a Saturday.
By contrast, there are only three obvious dates in 2022, on 7, 14, and 21 May.
This is because January and February are more or less ruled out due to summer holidays, March could be tricky due to the South Australia state election and April involves Anzac Day and Easter, writes Shanahan.
A government spokesman said: 'We won't be commenting on election speculation.'
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