How likely you are to have coronavirus NOW depending on where you live - and you have more chance of being struck by lightning unless you live in three states

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Australians have more chance of being hit by lightning or winning the lottery than having coronavirus in three states - with the odds lengthening dramatically over the past five weeks as severe lockdowns caused infection rates to plummet.

Just one out 38,336 Australians still has COVID-19 but that balloons to one in 284,194 in Queensland, 375,800 in Western Australia and 1.7million in South Australia.

By comparison, Australians have a one in 233,504 chance of being struck by lightning or a one in 240,050 probability of having won a division one lottery prize this year.

New South Wales residents, however, are twice as likely to be infected with the virus than anywhere else in Australia due to mass outbreaks at two nursing homes and from the infection-ravaged Ruby Princess cruise ship. 

The above COVID-19 figures are a raw guide, arrived at by dividing state and national population figures by the number of known active cases - people who are still suffering from the virus.

As of Tuesday, the number of active cases countrywide stood at 670 - which is the number of people who had tested positive for the illness and not yet been listed as recovered.

Little more than a month ago, Australia had 3,338 active cases - almost fives times as many as this week.

Australians have a one in 38,336 chance of coming into contact with someone infected with coronavirus right now - with the odds lengthening dramatically during the past five weeks of severe lockdowns. By comparison, Australians have a one in 233,504 chance of being struck by lightning - making a thunderclap injury more likely than contracting coronavirus in Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia

Should all those still infected stay at home for 14 days, as required by law, the odds of someone else catching the disease would be very low - and are falling as Australians stay home.

Health experts and cautious state premiers have warned that number could rise again as lockdown measures are eased and people circulate with asymptomatic carriers who unwittingly pass it on - a scenario known as the reinfection rate. 

Professor Allen Cheng, the director of the Alfred Hospital's Infection Prevention and Healthcare Epidemiology unit in Melbourne, agreed that the probability of having contracted coronavirus in 2020 could be deduced by dividing the number of cases by Australia's population and multiplying that by 100. 

'The overall risk of having had COVID since January is about 0.02 per cent and obviously much lower at the moment, when we have only 20 cases per day,' he said.  

However, as always, this did not provide a 'completely straightforward answer'.

'Epidemiologists always like to say "it depends",' he told Daily Mail Australia. 

Figures show someone living in NSW is twice as likely to still be sick with COVID-19 - with the chance sitting at 0.04 per cent.

On April 5, five days into the stage three lockdown, the chance of an Australian being an active COVID-19 case stood at one in 7,687 with 3,338 people still testing positive - or 0.01 per cent.  

Professor Cheng cautioned against drawing too much from infection rates in one suburb, with Bondi residents in Sydney's east having had a one in 200 or 0.5 per cent chance of catching coronavirus in 2020. 

As of Tuesday, there were 670 active COVID-19 cases in Australia when the number of people who had either recovered or died from coronavirus was subtracted from the total number of cases. Pictured is a sign closing the Dee Why rock pool on Sydney's northern beaches

'In small areas it doesn't really work - there are plenty of cases but most are returned travellers, so the risk isn't for the residents,' he said.

'Also they may not have picked up cases where they live.'  

At the other end of the spectrum, South Australia has one active case in the state, putting the chance of catching COVID-19 at one in 1,756,500 or 0.00006 per cent.

The Australian Capital Territory also has zero active cases.

Despite the low numbers, Australian National University Medical School Professor Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases physician, said there was still a risk of community transmission because some people could be carrying the disease without showing symptoms. 

'Sometimes cases with no symptoms are just bubbling just below the surface,' he said.

'Not many cases, but enough to likely keep the virus circulating at low levels.'

Someone is twice as likely in New South Wales to still be sick with COVID-19 but significantly less likely in every other state.  

The national odds of being infected since January are one in 3,696, or a 0.027 per cent probability, with 6,949 people contracting the disease during the past four months, as of Tuesday.

The Australian Capital Territory also has zero active cases. Statistically, someone has a zero percent chance of having the disease in Canberra now but those odds would change with just one active case, possibly brought in from outside the ACT. Parliament House pictured

The CSIRO's director of health and biosecurity Dr Rob Grenfell, cautioned against the idea of calculating the mathematical risks of getting coronavirus.

'Calculating the probability of contracting COVID-19 is more guesswork than science,' he told Daily Mail Australia.

'Rather than determining the probability of contracting COVID-19, Australians should continue to exercise good hygiene and practise social distancing to minimise the spread of the virus.'

Dr Grenfell said SARS-CoV-2, the virus which causes COVID-19, was very infectious and predominantly spread through the movement of people. 

'Although an area may have a higher concentration of cases, the likelihood of the virus spreading further depends on other variables such as social distancing measures, individual behaviours and contact tracing,' he said.

Since early April, the number of new coronavirus cases in Australia has been falling dramatically after state governments implemented stage three lockdowns banning people from leaving their home apart from buying groceries and medicines, working or caring for a loved one

Since early April, the number of new coronavirus cases in Australia has been falling dramatically as state governments implemented stage three lockdowns banning people from leaving their home apart from buying groceries and medicines, working or caring for a loved one.

Australia's chief medical officer Professor Brendan Murphy on April 7 - a week into the stage three restrictions - suggested the infection rate curve was flattening. 

'The early indications are positive, but we can't be complacent. We must not be complacent, we must hold the line,' he said.

Professor Raina MacIntyre, the head of biosecurity research at the University of New South Wales Kirby Institute, said with active cases numbers low, healthcare workers were now most at risk, adding the probability of getting the disease was hard to calculate.

'It would be low right now. Higher for people working in health care. No precise estimates,' she told Daily Mail Australia.

Professor Cheng, an infectious diseases physician, said Australians who had travelled overseas were much more at risk.

'It depends who you are - the risk in returning travellers was much higher than in those who hadn't left the country,' he said.

Someone is twice as likely in New South Wales to still be sick with COVID-19 - with the chance at 0.04 per cent. The national average probability is 0.02 per cent. Pictured is the Sydney Opera House on May 3, 2020 

Nonetheless, Professor Cheng said there could be many more undiagnosed cases which increased the chance of being infected.

'There are probably more cases than were diagnosed, for a variety of reasons - people that didn't get tested, or only had mild or no symptoms,' he said. 

New South Wales 

With 464 active cases in NSW, the chance of being tested positive now is one in 17,496 or 0.006 per cent in a state with 8.1million people.

With 3,053 people infected so far this year, they have had a one in 2,659 chance of having getting COVID-19 in 2020 - equating to a 0.04 per cent danger.  

NSW, Australia's most populous state, has also been home to the Ruby Princess cruise ship and clusters of cases at Sydney's Newmarch House and Dorothy Henderson Lodge nursing homes. 

Victoria

The state with Australia's strictest lockdown still has 118 active cases out of a population of 6.63million.

That means the chance of having COVID-19 now is one in 56,185 or 0.002 per cent.

The state with Australia's strictest lockdown still has 118 active cases out of a population of 6.630million. That means the chance of having COVID-19 now is one in 56,185 or 0.002 per cent. Pictured it the Yarra River in Melbourne's city centre

Victoria on January 25 had the dubious distinction of having Australia's first coronavirus case after a man from Wuhan in China, flew to Melbourne from Guandong six days earlier.

With 1,496 people diagnosed in the state since that time, Victorians have had a one in 4,431 chance of getting coronavirus during the past four months - with odds of 0.02 per cent.

Queensland

With just 18 cases in the Sunshine State, out of a population of 5.1million, the chance of having cornoavirus now in Queensland stands at just 284,194 or 0.0004 per cent.

Since the start of 2020, 1,045 have caught the illness - a one in 4,895 chance or a 0.02 per cent probability.

With just 18 cases in the Sunshine State, out of a population of 5.1million, the chance of having cornoavirus now in Queensland stands at just 284,194 or 0.0004 per cent. Pictured is a closed section of Surfers Paradise beach on the Gold Coast 

Until May 7, South Australia had recorded no new cases for two weeks. With just one active case in the state, the chances of being infected now are one in 1,756,500 or 0.00006 per cent. Pictured is SA Premier Steven Marshall sitting down with Duthy Street Deli owner Vassil Nikoliadis as COVID-19 restrictions are eased

South Australia

Until May 7, South Australia had recorded no new cases for two weeks.

With just one active case in the state, the chances of being infected now are one in 1,756,500 or 0.00006 per cent. 

The chance that someone in SA contracted coronavirus in 2020 stands at one in 4,001 or 0.025 per cent from 439 cases.

Western Australia

With just seven active cases in a state with 2.6million people, the chance of having COVID-19 right now in Western Australia is one in 375,800 or 0.0003 per cent.

The probability of someone getting coronavirus this year is one in 4,757 or 0.02 per cent with 553 cases so far among a population of 2.63million.

Retired Perth travel agent James Kwan, 78, on March 1 became the first Australian to die of COVID-19.

With just seven active cases in a state with 2.6million people, the chance of having COVID-19 right now in Western Australia is one in 375,800 or 0.0003 per cent. Pictured are two police officers at Cottesloe Beach in Perth

North West Regional Hospital at Burnie was shut down on April 13. This saw 1,200 hospital staff quarantined, after three healthcare workers tested positive on April 3 and 4 and the army brought in to provide medical care.  Pictured is Royal Australian Air Force medic Bendict Whalley in Burnie on April 18, 2020

Tasmania

The chance of having coronavirus now in the island state is one in 19,833 with just 27 active cases - yielding a probability of 0.005 per cent.

Most of that is concentrated in the state's north west, with North West Regional Hospital at Burnie shut down on April 13.

This saw 1,200 hospital staff quarantined, after three healthcare workers tested positive on April 3 and 4 with the army and Royal Australian Air Force brought in to provide medical care.

The prospect that someone this year caught COVID-19 in Tasmania, which closed its borders on March 18, is one in 2,380 or 0.04 per cent with 225 cases among a population of 535,500 people.

The Top End and Central Australia has just two active cases out of 245,600 people, putting the chance of someone having coronavirus now in the Northern Territory at one in 122,800 or just 0.0008 per cent. No wonder the NT is reopening its pubs this Friday. Pictured is a dirt bike rider at Gunn Point on the outskirts of Darwin

Northern Territory

The Top End and Central Australia has just two active cases out of 245,600 people, putting the chance of someone having coronavirus now in the Northern Territory at one in 122,800 or just 0.0008 per cent. 

No wonder the NT is reopening its pubs this Friday. 

With just 29 cases this year, the chance of being infected is one in 8,469 or 0.01 per cent. 

Australian Capital Territory

With just no active cases in Canberra, this effectively puts the prospect of being infected right now at zero but this would change should someone else in the community catch COVID-19.

In 2020, there have been 107 confirmed cases in the ACT putting the chance of being infected at one in 4,001 with the odds at 0.02 per cent from a population of 428,100.