Support for Scottish independence soars to six month high of 49% after Theresa May vows to win a hard Brexit 

  • BMG survey found the union could be left on a knife edge by a hard Brexit
  • But the poll makes clear Scottish voters don't want a second poll before Brexit
  • Scotland voted by 55% to 45% in 2014 to stay as part of the United Kingdom

By TIM SCULTHORPE, MAILONLINE DEPUTY POLITICAL EDITOR

Published: | Updated:

Support for Scottish independence has soared to a six month high of 49 per cent after Theresa May set out a path to a hard Brexit.

A BMG survey for The Herald found the Union has been left on a knife edge by the Prime Minister's declaration Britain would leave the single market.

Excluding Don't Knows, the poll found just 51 per cent of Scots now support staying part of the United Kingdom - a drop of three per cent since December.

But crucially, there is little support for a snap referendum held before the Brexit negotiations complete and Britain actually leaves the EU.  

Former first minister Alex Salmond today claimed the numbers meant it was 'game on' for a new referendum. 

Excluding those who don't know, the latest BMG poll on Scottish independence shows the Union on a knife edge, as 49 per cent now say they would back separation 

Excluding those who don't know, the latest BMG poll on Scottish independence shows the Union on a knife edge, as 49 per cent now say they would back separation 

BMG Research Director Michael Turner told the Herald Brexit was 'undoubtedly having an effect on support for the principle of independence'.

He said: 'However, although the results do show a clear rise in support since May's speech, which suggested that the UK may go for a harder form of Brexit than first thought, they also suggest a majority of Scots may not have the appetite for another referendum before the Brexit negotiations are concluded.

'Although these results suggest that opposition to independence is by no means an insurmountable task for Nicola Sturgeon's SNP, they do imply that she is a fair way off from her 'red-lines' of clear and consistent support.'

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has repeatedly warned Scotland should not be dragged out of the EU or the single market on the back of English votes.

She used her party conference speech in October to threaten a snap referendum before the Brexit talks end in 2019 if she was not given guarantees about single market membership.

Polls have generally given the SNP little hope of success in a second referendum but any shift will embolden the nationalist position.

The Scottish Parliament last night held a symbolic vote against Brexit and Ms Sturgeon's administration has produced a blue print of how it thinks Scotland can stay in the single market while England and Wales leave. 

The poll will be a boost for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, pictured during a Brexit debate in the Scottish Parliament last night

The poll will be a boost for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, pictured during a Brexit debate in the Scottish Parliament last night

The surge in support for independence comes after Theresa May, pictured with Angela Merkel at an EU meeting in Valetta last week, said Britain would quit the single market after Brexit 

The surge in support for independence comes after Theresa May, pictured with Angela Merkel at an EU meeting in Valetta last week, said Britain would quit the single market after Brexit 

SNP MPs have been furiously pursuing their position in the Commons this week during debate on the Article 50 legislation but with no success.

Late on Monday night, former Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond clashed angrily with the deputy speaker in a heated exchange over whether he had cut off an SNP MP while speaking. 

The disagreement came as deputy speaker Lindsay Hoyle tried to move on from SNP's Joanna Cherry, who used her speech to move devolution amendments to accuse the Government of 'hubris and contempt' in its attitude to Scotland.

Mr Salmond said the deputy speaker had cut her off while speaking and demanded she be allowed to continue, to jeers and shouts from MPs. Ms Cherry then walked out of the chamber.

The SNP has been furiously pushing its position in the Commons this week but making no progress. Former first minister Alex Salmond was embroiled in a furious row shortly before midnight on Monday, pictured 

The SNP has been furiously pushing its position in the Commons this week but making no progress. Former first minister Alex Salmond was embroiled in a furious row shortly before midnight on Monday, pictured 

Raising a point of order, Mr Salmond told Mr Hoyle: 'It is quite clear that the honourable member had not resumed her seat, Sir. Being in the chair accords you many privileges but you cannot reinterpret the wishes of an honourable member who is on her feet.'

Mr Hoyle responded: 'As the chair I have the right to make decisions on this House. What I would say is quite rightly when I wanted to bring her in, which I did ... I certainly don't expect advantages to be taken of the chair on the agreements that I make.'

Referring to the Brexit Bill, he said: 'It is a very serious matter, it is so serious that I want to hear what the minister has to say.'

 

 

 

 

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