How an outsider could slip through

Last updated at 08:48 18 October 2005


As Conservative MPs vote in a knockout ballot to narrow the contest for the next party leader, there are many plots and subplots going on behind the scenes.

Complex calculations are being made by MPs as they consider the merits of the four remaining contestants.

Eurosceptics backing Mr Davis could "lend" the shadow foreign secretary their votes to knock out Mr Clarke.

However, that risks triggering an implosion in support for the former front-runner and letting Dr Fox through to the final round.

He would follow in the footsteps of Michael Portillo who started the 2001 contest as the favourite but failed to make the cut.

Mr Cameron's supporters could be tempted to back Mr Davis, who they think their man can beat among the grassroots, against Dr Fox, who they fear more.

Even if he survives, Mr Clarke is unlikely to pick up votes among Dr Fox's right-wing eurosceptic supporters and make the final round but is expected to do well among the party's 300,000 activists if he can survive.

The final two face up to 11 hustings around the country before the postal ballots of around 300,000 Tory members are counted.

The winner is due to be announced on Tuesday December 6 although a recount could delay the result until the following day.

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