PETER VAN ONSELEN: Widespread dislike for Albanese AND Dutton is going to deliver the worst result for Australia this election
- Many voters don't like the major parties
- Increases likelihood of a hung parliament and minority government
- More power to the Greens and teals
- READ MORE: Jim Chalmers' petty payback
The paradox of the federal election campaign now underway is that first term governments rarely lose, but a majority of voters believe Australia is heading in the wrong direction and something needs to change.
That leaves both major parties with contrasting tasks.
The Labor government needs to either dissuade people from their preconceptions that something needs to change, or it must prove itself adaptable enough to change direction itself if re-elected. The latter feels like a contradiction alongside efforts to spruik government achievements during its first term.
That said, as we start the first full week of the election campaign a series of early opinion polls now put Labor narrowly in front, suggesting that it clearly starts this race as the favourite. Whether Labor is capable of retaining its narrow majority is another question entirely.
Meanwhile the Coalition must convince voters to do something they haven't done since 1931, and vote out a first-term government. To do that it needs enough voters to believe the change in direction they seek is something the Opposition is better placed to achieve than the Albanese government, even though they voted the Coalition out of office just three years ago. The latest opinion polls suggest a majority of voters are leaning the other way - they are more likely to give Labor one more chance and therefore a second term.
In truth, voters have their doubts about both major parties as well as both leaders. Anthony Albanese has so far proven to be an underwhelming Prime Minister, some say weak. In the eyes of mainstream voters he had his priorities wrong from the very beginning, using the political capital he had after his 2022 election victory to champion constitutional change a majority of voters simply didn't want or agree with.
In the midst of an inflation and cost of living crisis the PM made his focus an Indigenous Voice to Parliament. Albanese could scarcely have done more to highlight how out of touch he was with middle Australia. Three years on and living standards are worse than they were when he won office in 2022.
On the other side of the major party divide, Peter Dutton has long been anecdotally viewed as an unelectable alternative PM. Labor was pleased when he emerged as the Opposition Leader after the Coalition's 2022 election defeat. It had high hopes of growing its majority when it eventually faced re-election.
In truth, voters have their doubts about both major parties as well as both leaders. Anthony Albanese has so far proven to be an underwhelming Prime Minister, some say weak
On the other side of the major party divide, Peter Dutton has long been anecdotally viewed as an unelectable alternative PM, but has proven to be a successful Opposition Leader
But Dutton has proven to be a successful Opposition Leader, exposing problems with the Labor government. However, stoking sentiments of protest against a new government is one thing, transferring such dissatisfaction into a change of leadership so quickly requires voters to be satisfied what Dutton offers as an alternative PM is worth risking.
Whether voters are prepared to risk Dutton's nuclear agenda remains in doubt. He's also gotten caught up in his own side-tracked agenda concerning potential constitutional reforms about immigration and deportations when cost of living issues are front of mind for voters. Plus Labor's scare campaign, both personally against Dutton and more generally against the Coalition on issues such as Medicare, will intensify on the campaign trail.
These are barriers to Dutton becoming PM, especially when considering the Coalition starts the campaign with just 54 seats needing 76 to form majority government. Winning 22 seats in one go is a tall order for Team Dutton, and the option of winning as a minority government with fewer seat-by-seat pick ups is arguably slim, with most crossbenchers more likely to favour Labor in a hung parliament. Early campaign opinion polls support such conclusions.
Voter doubts about both major parties has seen support for crossbench alternatives grow in recent electoral cycles. The major parties share of the primary vote and seat totals has been steadily slipping in modern Australian politics.
At the last election the teals emerged and the Greens grew their share of lower house seats from one to four, to compliment their crossbench domination in the Senate. Plus there are a number of other local independents making the current House of Reps crossbench the largest in Australian history.
This all adds up to the likelihood of a hung parliament and minority government.
There is irony in the fact that voter dissatisfaction with the major parties is expected to lead to something most of the public ultimately don't want: a government held to ransom in the lower house by crossbenchers, perhaps specifically the Greens.
Greens leader Adam Bandt is already campaigning on a theme of his party aiming to pull the strings in a Labor minority government. It isn't the sort of narrative Albo will want to go mainstream.
At the last electon, the teals emerged and the Greens grew their share of lower house seats from one to four, to compliment their crossbench domination in the Senate. Greens leader Adam Bandt is pictured above
For many Australians, the Greens controlling the balance of power in the lower house is a scary prospect, and likely to worsen the problems they want fixed.
While there is the potential over the course of a five-week election campaign for enough voters to be dissuaded from contributing to a hung parliament of that nature, such that they decide to lock in behind the major parties instead, that remains an outside probability.
It is, however, Dutton's best chance of pulling off an unlikely win: scaring enough voters into switching to the opposition out of fear that a Labor victory is only possible if it secures the support of the Greens as a minority government. Labor starts this campaign with 77 seats needing 76 to retain majority government. It seems unlikely Albanese could contain total seat losses to just one.
In outer metropolitan marginal seats the Coalition's message will be to stoke fear of a Greens Labor alliance, alongside regular pot shots at Labor's track record over the past three years.
For the government's part, it will seek to answer voter concerns about the direction of the country by asking them if they really think an expensive nuclear power rollout is a better alternative. They will also tap into fears that the Coalition would cut spending in ways that will worsen the hardship home budgets are already under.
In truth neither major party has much of a plan to fix the budget. Equally, voters don't seem all that concerned about the fiscal task ahead, with recent polls suggesting over 80 per cent want more spending to address cost of living challenges.
Which is exactly why the budget was a spendathon and Dutton's reply speech also focused on spending initiatives rather than necessary cuts and reforms. The campaign is expected to follow a similar theme, even though any spending commitments can only be paid for by more debt.
The task of budget repair, tax reform and even federation reform to lock in future prosperity aren't likely to feature very much during this election campaign. Even though economists almost universally argue that such focus must be the priority of the next parliament irrespective of who wins.
Instead, the next five weeks will be dominated by fear and loathing on the campaign trail, as both major party leaders try and convince you that they are the least bad option you have to choose from. It's hardly inspiring but it's how the next five weeks will play out.
