Shocking way California could swing the election for Trump

By JAMES REINL, US SENIOR REPORTER

Published: | Updated:

Donald Trump has little chance of winning any electoral college votes from safely blue California in Tuesday's election.

But Golden State voters may yet buoy the former Republican president's chances, The Wall Street Journal says in an editorial.

Population flight from California, New York, Illinois and other progressive states to electoral battlegrounds in recent years could sway the outcome of the 2024 race, the Journal argues.

That's in part because migration patterns in the 2010s cut Democrats' advantage in the Electoral College after the post-2020 Census reapportionment, says the article.

California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia each lost a vote.

Voters on Tuesday waiting to vote in Cypress, Texas, which is worth two additional electoral college votes in the 2024 race thanks to inbound migration.

Voters on Tuesday waiting to vote in Cypress, Texas, which is worth two additional electoral college votes in the 2024 race thanks to inbound migration.   

A family readies to leave Queens, in New York, which has lost tens of thousands of voters to Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and elsewhere since 2020.

A family readies to leave Queens, in New York, which has lost tens of thousands of voters to Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and elsewhere since 2020.

At the same time, Texas gained two, while Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each added one.

That means Vice President Kamala Harris starts with a smaller advantage over Trump than her boss Joe Biden did in 2020, the Journal says.

That creates more 'pathways' for Trump to win the 270 electoral votes that secures the White House, it adds.

Trump could attain 270 by keeping all the safely red states and winning the swing states of Georgia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina, says the Journal.

'If Ms. Harris loses in such a scenario, Democrats can blame progressives in Sacramento, Albany, and Springfield for driving an exodus to red states with their ever-higher taxes and cost of living,' says the editorial board.

'Millions of Americans have voted with their pocket book as Democrats who run one-party states have entrenched their power and made it hard to correct policy.'

Domestic migration patterns could help Trump in another way, the Journal adds.

Some 700,000 Americans on net moved to Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin from other states between 2020 and 2023, Census Bureau data show.

Many of those migrants are 'fleeing high taxes and the social and economic consequences of progressive policies,' says the Journal.

As such, they may lean conservative — perhaps evidenced by Florida's switch to being reliably Republican as it absorbs newcomers from across the US, it says.

Florida is now home to 1.6 million native New Yorkers, says the Journal.

Some former residents of California say they were driven out of the state by high taxes and social problems, including homelessness.

Some former residents of California say they were driven out of the state by high taxes and social problems, including homelessness. 

Supporters of former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump hold a flag outside a polling station, on Election Day, in The Villages, Florida, which has welcomed newcomers to the state in recent years.

Supporters of former US president and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump hold a flag outside a polling station, on Election Day, in The Villages, Florida, which has welcomed newcomers to the state in recent years. 

A voter holds a ballot before casting his vote during Election Day in Miami, Florida.

A voter holds a ballot before casting his vote during Election Day in Miami, Florida.

Another 60,000 have relocated to North Carolina since 2020 and 28,000 have moved to Georgia.

'Many are college-educated suburbanites who dislike both Mr. Trump's character and the left's cultural excesses,' says the paper.

'It's hard to predict how they will vote.'

Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada have all gained tens of thousands of residents since 2020 – and there are signs they are trending more Republican than four years ago, says the paper.

'It's possible the polls will be wrong again this year and one of the two candidates will win a more convincing victory,' it says.

'But if the election is close, and Mr. Trump wins Arizona and Nevada, he might thank California Gov. Gavin Newsom.'

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