Daily Mail election model moves to 'lean Trump' for the first time as he edges Harris in swing states
- Trump has tightened grip on critical battleground states in the latest polling
- The result is that our model is no longer a 'toss up' but now reads 'lean Trump'
- READ MORE: Follow all the day's latest political developments on our live blog
- DEEP DIVE: How Donald Trump won America back
Monday brings a potentially decisive shift in the DailyMail.com/J.L. Partners election model: For the first time it has shifted to 'lean Trump' after weeks of indicating that the ballot is a 'toss up.'
It is the result of a raft of new polling data suggesting Kamala Harris' national lead has shrunk or evaporated altogether.
And multiple swing states now show that the former president has a narrow lead in most of the battlegrounds that will decide who wins the next election.
When those numbers are fed into our exclusive prediction model, it shows that Trump would claim the overall win in 62.4 percent of our simulations.
At the end of last week he was on 59.8 percent.
The new numbers suggest the momentum is with him rather than the vice president, and it shifts the overall result from 'toss up' to 'lean Trump.'
Even so, with Harris on almost a 40 percent chance of victory it means the election could still be one of the closest in history.
With three weeks of campaigning to go, there is everything to play for.
Callum Hunter, data scientist at J.L. Partners, said the key polls included New York Times surveys giving Trump a five to six-point lead in Arizona, with Harris holding a three to four-point lead in Pennsylvania, and a Redfield and Wilton poll showing Trump on a two-point lead in Pennsylvania.
'The race continues to move in Trumps' favor despite a New York Times poll giving Harris the edge in Pennsylvania,' he wrote in his latest briefing memo.
'This poll was balanced out by a poll from R&W and the underlying national shift against Harris.
'It is important to remember that this model uses correlations as well as national vote shares to obtain each state's average. This means that every state poll affects every other state - so a single poll that is good for Harris is not necessarily going to push things in that state in her favor.
'The model looks at the WHOLE picture of the country, not single spot polls. The trend is continuing in Trump's favor and has shown little sign of changing since it began at the end of September.
'Momentum is building, and with just over three weeks left, Harris might not have the force to reverse the direction of voters.'
Donald Trump now has the clearest lead in our election model. Overall, the forecast has gone from 'toss up' to 'lean Trump' as the latest polls show him with all the momentum
Harris entered the race in July when President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign. She enjoyed weeks of positive headlines and recordbreaking fundraising.
But a bump in the polls has gently come undone and our election model has followed a reversal in fortunes, as Trump has overtaken her in recent weeks.
Overall the most likely outcome is unchanged from Friday, with Trump forecast to win 312 Electoral college votes to Harris' 226. With 538 up for grabs, the magic number for victory is 270.
The shifting dynamics also reduce the probability that Pennsylvania (where according to our latest J.L. Partners poll the two candidates are in a dead heat, polling 47 percent each) is the deciding state.
Last week it was the deciding battleground in 40 percent of the simulations; now it is decides in 36 percent.
Michigan and North Carolina are the next two states most likely to tip one or other candidate over the winning line.
Although Vice President Kamala Harris is now firmly in second place, she still has an almost 40 percent chance of winning the election. There is everything to play for in the last three weeks
You can explore the latest data in our array of widgets, which show you just how the numbers have moved in each state.
Nevada, for example, has moved towards Trump by 3.1 points this week and he is now predicted to win it in 60.5 percent of our simulation. That means it has moved from 'toss up' to 'lean Trump.
In Arizona, Trump's win probability has increased by a further 2.6 points keeping it firmly in the 'likely Trump' column.
So too Georgia, where there has been a slight movement to Trump. He has a 72.3 percent chance of victory in the state.
And Michigan remains in toss up territory, but it has moved to the former president by 2.1 points.
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