Will Partygate blow up Boris' Red Wall? Tory MPs panic as support plunges over 'rule-breaking' at Downing Street and voter trust in the PM wanes - with Rishi Sunak backed to take over

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The mid-term crash in support for the Conservatives in the 57 seats Boris Johnson gained in 2019 has led to panic among MPs who fear that they are doomed to sit in the Commons for only one term.

The results of today's Mail on Sunday poll are likely to fan the frenzy of bitching and back- stabbing that dominates messaging sites used by the MPs as they speculate about which of them would be most likely to lose if an Election were held tomorrow – and debate whether to submit letters of no-confidence in the Prime Minister.

Our Deltapoll survey backs up anecdotal evidence from the MPs – dominated by the so-called Red Wallers who seized former Labour strongholds – that Mr Johnson has become a drag on their fortunes.

One told this newspaper: 'I keep hearing the same line on the doorstep – 'I'd support you if you got rid of your boss'.'

When asked if Mr Johnson was 'doing well', only 34 per cent of voters in the seats agree, while 62 per cent disagree, a net rating of minus 28. By comparison, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer scores minus 6.

Sir Keir wins the 'best Prime Minister' rating, on 38 per cent, while Mr Johnson gets 33 per cent. The Labour double act of Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves is also preferred to Mr Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak, by 40 per cent to 33 per cent.

The rows over claims that parties were held in Downing Street in breach of Covid rules appear to have 'cut through' to voters in the critical seats, with Mr Johnson personally identified with public anger over the issue. 

Only 16 per cent of voters in the seats think Mr Johnson obeyed the rules, while 72 per cent think he did not – and 65 per cent think he should resign if the Cabinet Office's investigation into the events during lockdown concludes that he broke the rules.

The poll found that nearly six in ten of swing voters – 58 per cent – do not expect Mr Johnson to be Prime Minister this time next year. The survey also backs claims by new Tory MPs that the rising cost of living, driven by higher energy and fuel bills, is hammering support for the Conservatives in these swing seats. 

Forty per cent say their household finances are in a worse state since Mr Johnson became PM, with only 12 per cent better off. More ominously for the party, 41 per cent think they will deteriorate further this year.

The poll found that nearly six in ten of swing voters – 58 per cent – do not expect Mr Johnson to be Prime Minister this time next year. The survey also backs claims by new Tory MPs that the rising cost of living, driven by higher energy and fuel bills, is hammering support for the Conservatives in these swing seats

 Sir Keir wins the 'best Prime Minister' rating, on 38 per cent, while Mr Johnson gets 33 per cent. The Labour double act of Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves is also preferred to Mr Johnson and Chancellor Rishi Sunak, by 40 per cent to 33 per cent

'Trust' is a theme which runs through the poll – a majority, 53 per cent, don't trust Mr Johnson to grow the economy; 67 per cent don't trust him to 'level up' income differences around the country; 68 per cent don't trust Boris to help the poorest and 74 per cent don't trust him to tell the truth.

One of the most common complaints of disgruntled Tory MPs is that No10 is concentrating on issues, such as the environment, of marginal concern to voters.

Writing in today's Mail on Sunday, Lee Anderson, the Tory MP for Ashfield, says the Government's achievements, such as its investment in the NHS, 'are being outweighed by the huge rises in the cost of living coming down the track, through higher energy bills, which my voters care far more about than the platitudes spouted about the 'green agenda' by the wealthy elite who flew into the COP26 summit in private planes'.

He adds: 'I know from conversations with the Prime Minister that he gets it – but I am not convinced everyone in his inner circle does. If we deliver on people's priorities – rather than what we think are people's priorities – then there is no reason why we cannot make further gains in the next Election'.

Writing in today's Mail on Sunday, Lee Anderson (pictured), the Tory MP for Ashfield, says the Government's achievements, such as its investment in the NHS, 'are being outweighed by the huge rises in the cost of living coming down the track, through higher energy bills

The poll appears to back up his assertion, with the environment coming sixth among voters' priorities behind Covid, supporting the NHS, the cost of living, the economy and immigration.

 If Mr Johnson does leave No10, Red Wall voters have a clear successor in mind. Mr Sunak comes top, on 18 per cent, way ahead of Sajid Javid, the Health Secretary, who comes joint second with his predecessor Jeremy Hunt. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, the favourite of party members, is joint fifth on 3 per cent, along with Deputy PM Dominic Raab and former health secretary Matt Hancock.

Joe Twyman, co-founder and director of Deltapoll, said: 'The Conservative victory in 2019 was due, in no small part, to winning over voters in seats where the party had not previously been successful. The data, however, show the task Boris Johnson faces to hold on to the seats that were gained in 2019.

'With recent controversies still fresh in the mind of voters and a number of important issues to address, the new year may not be a happy one for the Prime Minister.'

The firm polled 1,567 adults online from December 23 to 30, including 612 from seats gained by the Tories in 2019. It came up with its figure of 57 constituencies based on the 58 taken from other parties by the Tories in 2019, minus that of former Speaker John Bercow, who stood down. The party made a net gain of 48, having lost ten seats. The overall data were weighted to represent the adult population as a whole.