JAMES ASHTON: Given the carnage on stock markets, global banks' loan portfolios must be gone through with a fine-tooth comb
John Cryan, the British banker appointed last summer to revive Deutsche Bank, talks a lot of sense. Not so long ago when the jobs axe was swinging, he conceded that many in his profession still got paid far too much for what they did.
The trouble is, Cryan’s protestations that Deutsche is a picture of financial health are falling on deaf ears. The last decade has taught investors that cries of “don’t panic” often indicate they should do precisely the opposite.
Even with the German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble unfussed by the bank’s gyrations, the price of insuring against a Deutsche debt default has hit levels not seen since the financial crisis.
Promises: Deutsche has assured it can make the CoCo payments due at the end of April three times over
The focus of much panic is the very instrument designed to bail out banks should they ever encounter another meltdown.
So-called contingent convertible bonds (CoCos) turn into equity to bolster capital in times of trouble so that bondholders pay up before shareholders get burnt.
Never mind that Deutsche has assured it can make the CoCo payments due at the end of April three times over. Tracking the price of this safety blanket that regulators were so keen on is just another way for investors to take fright.
They are conveniently forgetting that banking these days involves less risk and bigger buffers.
To some extent, the European Central Bank only has itself to blame. Its first efforts to assess balance sheet risk in the wake of the financial crisis might as well have been conducted with a feather duster.
Only after a more rigorous inspection were eurozone banks revealed to be sitting a range of toxic nasties and in dire need of raising new capital to meet tougher rules.
Given the losses incurred from oil and the emerging markets sell-off, who can blame investors for thinking that loan portfolios should be gone through once more with a fine-tooth comb?
It is amazing that only now is the Italian government helping its lenders offload £150bn of bad debts. Compare that to the quick and effective recapitalisation of the Wall Street banks and it is no surprise that the business of investment banking is fast becoming dominated by Uncle Sam.
There was a feeling that the ECB might one day have to return to the banks and insist on a better job. If this rout continues, that time is now.
Roger that
When Walmart swooped to buy Asda almost a generation ago, the supermarket sector was meant to be laid to waste by the arrival of America’s deep-discounting titan. Yet today it is Asda that looks the most exposed in the ongoing price war.
A Christmas to forget has been followed by a sales decline accelerating through January. It will take more than Asda’s wonky veg box – this week’s cheap treat – to lure back shoppers who have given Aldi and Lidl a try.
Until it gets distracted by the integration of Argos, Sainsbury’s is making steady progress compared to its closest competitor. Even Morrisons has a new lease of life.
The Waltons of Arkansas must be puzzled by what is going on. Head office cuts, a PR man with his fingers in the till and an unconvincing expansion in southern England: roll on the arrival later this year of likeable Yorkshireman Roger Burnley as chief operating officer.
Surely he will step up smartly to succeed chief executive Andy Clarke who appears to be past his sell-by date.
Air rage
Call: easyJet boss Carolyn McCall turned down a top job at Marks and Spencer
If Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou was pleased that easyJet boss Dame Carolyn McCall did not answer the siren call to run Marks and Spencer, he has a funny way of showing it. Ahead of the company’s shareholder meeting in Luton tomorrow, the airline’s founder is laying into its ‘scattergun approach’ over dividends, calling for the standard payout ratio to rise from 40 per cent to 50 per cent of post-tax profits.
That equates to a lot of extra baked beans for Sir Stelios, whose latest venture has seen him become a bargain-basement grocer.
In her five years in the cockpit, Dame Carolyn has paid fat returns to soothe the entrepreneur, who insists dividend payments are owed after all the risk equity capital he sunk into easyJet early on.
There is always turbulence in the aviation industry, but the biggest risk to this business is if the management swerves off course to address yet more demands from its largest shareholder.
Sugar rush
Even the wise heads at the Institute for Fiscal Studies can’t calculate the consequences of a sugar tax. A glance at Coca-Cola’s annual results and one thing is easy to work out.
With revenues higher than expected at £6.9billion last year, Coke and friends are well placed to cope with higher prices or a dent in sales.
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