Mass graves planned for bird flu outbreak

Last updated at 16:06 03 April 2006


Mass burials are being considered by the Home Office as part of preparations for a bird flu pandemic.

A "prudent worst case" assessment suggested 320,000 could die in the UK if the H5N1 virus mutated into a form contagious to humans, according to a confidential report.

That would lead to delays of up to 17 weeks in burying or cremating victims. The document warns that the prospect of "common burial" would stir up images of the mass pits used to bury victims of the Great Plague in 1665.

But in fact it "might involve a large number of coffins buried in the same place at the same time, in such a way that allowed for individual graves to be marked".

Town halls could deal with a "base case" of 48,000 deaths in England and Wales in a 15-week pandemic.

But it adds: "Even with ramping local management capacity by 100 per cent, the prudent worst case of 320,000 excess deaths is projected to lead to a delay of some 17 weeks from death to burial or cremation."

Should the outbreak kill 2.5 per cent of those who contract the flu, it warns, "no matter what emergency arrangements are put in place there are likely to be substantially more deaths than can be managed within current timescales".

The document called Managing Excess Deaths in an Influenza Pandemic was dated March 22 and seen by the Sunday Times. It said vaccines would not be available at least for "the first wave" of a pandemic and would not be a "silver bullet".

The newspaper said it was discussed last week in cabinet subcommittee MISC 32, in a meeting chaired by Health Secretary Patricia Hewitt.

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