World waits to see if Trump will attack Venezuela

As the world waits to see if Donald Trump will attack Venezuela, his top military adviser has visited the region where the US has gathered a huge military presence as pressure for Nicolás Maduro to quit reaches its highest point yet. Warships, aircraft and thousands of personnel have been moved into position over recent months, forming a deployment not seen since the US sent troops into Panama in 1989. The build-up has raised fears that Washington may be preparing for military action after hostilities with Caracas reached an all-time high in recent months.

Trump's government has accused Maduro of leading and protecting a criminal network known as the 'Cartel of the Suns' and has offered $50million for information leading to his arrest. The cartel was designated as a foreign terrorist organisation yesterday. On Monday, Gen. Dan Caine, the US president's primary military adviser, visited troops in Puerto Rico, where the US has been amassing its large fleet - roughly 500 miles from Venezuela. In a statement, Caine, who is also the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the purpose of his trip was to 'engage with service members and thank them for their outstanding support to regional missions.'

This marks the second time he has visited the region since the US began building its military might - in September, he went to Puerto Rico with defence secretary Pete Hegseth, who has been providing Trump with various options for military operations in Venezuela. The shift in military posture has coincided with warnings from US officials that their operation is entering what they call a 'new phase.' Their comments came shortly before several airlines cancelled services to Venezuela after the US Federal Aviation Administration told civilian pilots to 'exercise caution' because of the 'worsening security situation and heightened military activity' in and around the country.

In the past week, Navy vessels have been seen sailing increasingly closer to the South American nation. The new wave of deployments began in August with the arrival of the Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group. In October, the US announced that the 1106ft USS Gerald R Ford, the largest aircraft carrier in the world, would also join the mission. The carrier reached Caribbean waters on November 11 with more than four thousand sailors, fighter jets and support vessels, including the USS Thomas Hudner, USS Rampage, and USS Normandy. The Ford brings with it F-35C stealth fighters, considered the world's most advanced fighter to operate from a carrier deck.

Additionally, there are 10 U.S. Marine Corps F-35s stationed in Puerto Rico, along with AV-8 Harrier jump jets and AH-1 attack helicopters. Some of the warships come equipped with extremely powerful surveillance radars capable of detecting surface and aerial targets. They also have long-range missiles that can strike deep into Venezuela. Roughly two thousand US troops were already in the region before the reinforcements arrived. With the new arrivals, analysts estimate the total number of personnel at around 12,700. However, some experts have stressed that this is far below what would be needed for a full invasion, which could require fifty thousand to one hundred and fifty thousand soldiers.

The United States also operates military bases in Puerto Rico, Honduras and Cuba, as well as surveillance hubs in El Salvador, Aruba and Curaçao. The sites in Aruba and Curaçao are closest to the Venezuelan coastline, although their use would require approval from the Netherlands. Satellite photos show that the old Roosevelt Roads naval station in Puerto Rico is being upgraded. The facility closed in 2004, but now has resurfaced taxiways, and US Marines have carried out exercises there since August. There have also been joint military drills between the US and Trinidad and Tobago, which lies a short distance from Venezuela.

By mid-October, a mobile air traffic tower and communications equipment had been moved to Puerto Rico's Rafael Hernandez Airport. They have been noted to be used to control a surge of aircraft in war zones. The increase in US military activity started in September, when American forces opened fire on a small boat they claimed was involved in drug trafficking, killing eleven people. Since then, at least twenty-one more vessels have been destroyed in the Caribbean and Pacific, leaving 83 people dead. The United Nations and humanitarian groups have said the killings amount to extrajudicial executions.

Mexico, Colombia, and some of the US's closest allies have spoken against the killings. Officials in the UK ceased sharing intelligence with the US about narco boats in the region. The United States has not produced evidence that the boats were carrying drugs. Legal experts point out that even if they were, they did not pose a threat that would justify the attacks. The two people who survived the strikes were returned to Ecuador and Colombia, and neither country pressed charges because the US did not hand over proof of drug trafficking. Additionally, figures have indicated that only a small percentage of drugs are trafficked through boats that move between the Caribbean islands. Venezuela is seen as a transit point for cocaine heading mostly to Europe, with the drugs typically coming from Colombia.

Many military observers think that if Trump gives his military the go-ahead for an attack, it would likely begin with targeted airstrikes on facilities linked to Maduro's government or criminal groups. Naval ships in the region can turn off their tracking devices, so exact positions are often unclear, but data from MarineTraffic, sightings and US Navy statements show that American forces are operating close enough to strike any point inside Venezuela . Maduro, however, has indicated that any US aggression would be met with a response from his own army. The Venezuelan military has 125,000 active personnel. He is believed to be planning a 'prolonged resistance ' in the eventuality of a US strike. These are said to include sabotage, guerrilla attacks, and the mobilisation of armed loyalist groups and pro-government gangs.

Maduro has long said he believes the US' actions have nothing to do with battling narcos. He has suggested Trump is using that front to topple his government. The US leader has consistently branded Maduro's leadership as 'illegitimate' and said he believes the South American president's days are numbered. Speaking directly to the Venezuelan Army in 2019, Trump told them to abandon their commander-in-chief . He said: 'You will find no safe harbour, no easy exit and no way out. You will lose everything.' He also warned: 'We seek a peaceful transition of power, but all options are open'.

Maduro, 63, has been the president of Venezuela since 2013. He has been called a dictator who has presided over a corrupt government. His premiership has also been dogged by electoral fraud allegations and human rights abuses. Thousands of people have been subjected to extrajudicial killings under his watch, while millions of people have been forced to flee the country, according to rights groups.

Maduro also has the backing of Russia's Vladimir Putin, who has supplied Venezuela with billions of weapons. The two signed a strategic partnership treaty in May this year. On Telegram, Venezuela's foreign minister, Yvan Gil, said the move to declare the Cartels of the Suns a terrorist organisation was a 'vile lie to justify an illegitimate and illegal intervention against Venezuela, under the classic U.S. regime change format. He added: 'This new manoeuvre will meet the same fate as previous and recurrent aggressions against our country: failure.'