Valid Tuesday November 11, 2025 to Monday November 17, 2025
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM
EST November 03 2025
Synopsis: Mid-level low pressure forecast
over the northeastern Pacific favors an increased risk of heavy precipitation,
high elevation snowfall, and high winds over portions of the western contiguous
U.S. (CONUS) during week-2. An early taste of winter is predicted across the
East around the start of the period as a departing mid-level low brings in some
of the coldest air of the season thus far, with a likely end of the growing
season across the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain. Hazardous temperatures could
extend into parts of the Southeast. Lake Effect Snow is possible downwind of
Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Hazards - Moderate risk of much
below normal temperatures across much of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain into
the Southeast, Tue, Nov 11.
- Slight risk of much below normal temperatures across portions of the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys, Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Appalachians, and Southeast,
Tue-Wed, Nov 11-12.
- Slight risk of heavy precipitation across portions of the Pacific Northwest
and northern California, Tue-Mon, Nov 11-17.
- Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Cascades, Sierra Nevada,
and Klamath Mountains, Tue-Mon, Nov 11-17.
- Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Northern Rockies, Tue-Mon,
Nov 11-17.
- Slight risk of heavy snow across portions of the Interior Northeast and
into the Allegheny Front, Tue-Thu, Nov 11-13.
- Slight risk of high winds across along the West Coast of the CONUS,
Tue-Mon, Nov 11-17.
- Slight risk of high winds across portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast, Tue-Thu, Nov 11-13.
Detailed SummaryFor
Thursday November 06 - Monday November 10:
WPC Days 3-7 U.S.
Hazards For Tuesday November 11 - Monday
November 17: A progressive mid-level pattern is forecast across North
America during week-2, with the 0z ECENS, GEFS, and CMCE models depicting
several shortwave troughs traversing the forecast domain. Intermittent periods
of unsettled weather are likely to continue across the West tied to each trough
passage. The GEFS and ECENS Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) depict at least
a 20 percent chance of 3-day precipitation totals exceeding the 85th
climatological percentile and 1.5-inches across much of the Pacific Northwest
and northern California throughout the period. Compared to yesterday, there is
also a greater extension of onshore flow farther south, with an associated
increase in precipitation totals over southern California. The low climatology
is driving the percentile probabilities higher in the PETs, with actual
precipitation values lower relative to northern areas. Therefore, the slight
risk of heavy precipitation includes the Pacific Northwest to about San
Francisco, CA, and is now valid for all of week-2. Models indicate the highest
24-hour precipitation totals along the West Coast on days 9 and 10 (Nov 12-13)
as troughing amplifies over the Eastern Pacific. This period will continue to
be monitored and a moderate risk may be considered tomorrow. An accompanying
slight risk of high winds is extended along the entire West Coast for all of
week-2, consistent with the ECENS PET depicting at least a 20 percent chance of
wind speeds exceeding the 85th percentile and 25-mph corresponding to the
predicted southerly extension of onshore flow. Slight risks of heavy snow are
highlighted across the Cascades, Klamath, and Sierra Nevada Mountains, as well
as the Northern Rockies. Some of the uncalibrated model guidance would support
bringing the snow hazard into parts of the Central Rockies. However, the
anomalous ridge downstream reduces the chances of this occurring but this area
will continue to be monitored.
Over the past few days, there have been significant model trends toward the
development of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (-NAO) and associated
amplified troughing across the northeastern U.S. early in week-2. This pattern
supports a colder temperature forecast across the East. The 0z ECENS is quite
robust with this feature, with its corresponding PET depicting at least a 40
percent chance of minimum temperatures falling below the 15th climatological
percentile over many areas on day-8 (Nov 11), with the elevated potential for a
hard freeze (below 28 deg F) over the interior East. The 0z GEFS, on the other
hand, is more progressive and indicates more Pacific flow and weak ridging
developing over the Southeast, likely reducing the extent of the cold. However,
the 6z, and to a greater extent, the 12z GEFS have both trended toward a more
amplified trough and a colder solution. Recent deterministic solutions from the
ECMWF and GFS also lean on the colder side of the ensemble envelope. Given
these trends, a moderate risk for much below normal temperatures is posted
across much of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain into the Southeast on day-8 (Nov
11). For the more northern areas of the region, there is increased potential
for subfreezing overnight temperatures, likely resulting in an end to the
growing season across areas that have yet to see a first freeze. Across the
Southeast, temperatures possibly falling below 40 deg F may result in frost
formation and damage to sensitive vegetation. A slight risk of much below
normal temperatures continues through Nov 12, with a quick moderation
thereafter. The slight risk extends farther west across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys where colder but less impactful temperatures are likely.
A tight pressure gradient between surface low pressure over eastern Canada
and surface high pressure over the Southeast favors enhanced winds across the
Northeast, with the ECENS PET supporting a slight risk for high winds, Nov
11-13, where wind speeds may exceed 20-mph. While New England has already
experienced a first freeze precluding a temperature hazard, the increased wind
speeds will likely lead to a notable decrease in wind chill values. The
cyclonic flow pattern combined with the anomalously cold air also increases the
potential for occasional episodes of snow across the Interior Northeast and
extending along the Allegheny Front, with Lake Effect Snow also possible
downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie. Therefore, a slight risk for heavy snow is
posted across these areas, Nov 11-13. Snowfall amounts in the models are not
all that impressive, but this would be noteworthy given that it is early in the
season.
Across Alaska, relatively drier conditions are forecast across Southeast
Alaska as the strongest onshore flow shifts southward to the western CONUS. The
mid-level pattern is more variable throughout week-2, although more troughing
is noted across the Bering Sea toward the end of the period. For the period as
a whole, near- to above-normal temperatures and precipitation are forecast with
no hazards posted across the state.
Forecaster: Thomas Collow
$$
Please consult local NWS Forecast Offices for short range forecasts and region-specific information.
Resources
Week-2 Probabilistic Extremes Tool
GFS Ensemble Forecasts
www.nws.noaa.gov
