Prognostic Discussion for Monthly Outlook 
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD 
300 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026 
 
 
30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB 2026 
 
The latest weekly observations from the Equatorial Pacific indicate that 
negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region continue to 
diminish. The most recently observed Niño 3.4 index currently stands at -0.3 
degrees Celsius as compared to -0.8 degrees Celsius when the mid-month outlook 
was released. Moreover, equatorial upper ocean heat anomalies in the equatorial 
Pacific are at its most positive value in at least a year. These observations 
are consistent with the current El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook 
which forecasts a 75 percent chance of a transition from La Niña to the 
neutral phase during this current January-February-March (JFM) period. 
Meanwhile, dynamical models  are in good agreement in continuing the current 
long duration negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) event well into February. The 
combination of ENSO neutral conditions and a negative AO is among the most 
favorable scenarios for widespread Arctic air outbreaks in the Contiguous 
United States (CONUS), especially east of the Rockies. 
 
For the first week of February, dynamical models  forecast a series of mid-level 
shortwave troughs rotating through mean cyclonic flow across the eastern CONUS, 
while ridging dominates the West and mainland Alaska. Anomalous troughing is 
forecast in early February across the northeastern Pacific. As we approach the 
middle of February, CPC's 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks both depict strong 
anomalous ridging near Davis Strait, typical of a negative AO pattern. This 
negative AO pattern would act to maintain widespread anomalous troughing across 
the eastern US through much of the first half of the month. Meanwhile, a 
significant pattern shift is forecast across the West and Alaska as the ridge 
over western North America is forecast to break down significantly around the 
middle of the month, corresponding to a predicted weakening of the currently 
positive Pacific North American (PNA) pattern. During the latter half of 
February, CPC's weeks 3-4 outlooks forecast strong positive mid-level heights 
to persist over Davis Strait and Baffin Bay, suggestive of a long duration 
negative AO throughout most of the month. The forecast pattern also depicts a 
retrogression of this ridge to the southwest and an expansion mid-level 
troughing across most areas of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Low amplitude 
flow is generally depicted across the West. The ridging forecast over mainland 
Alaska early in the month is forecast to continue to flatten later in February, 
with positive height anomalies becoming more focused over the Aleutians. 
 
Due to the combination of the forecast transition to ENSO neutral conditions 
and the prospect of a prolonged negative AO pattern, below normal temperatures 
are favored for almost the entire eastern third of the CONUS. Probabilities of 
below normal temperatures exceed 50 percent across the Mid-Atlantic and 
adjacent areas of the Appalachians, Northeast, Ohio Valley, and eastern Great 
Lakes, where troughing is expected to be most persistent. Anomalous snow cover 
may also contribute to increased chances of colder than normal conditions, 
especially early in the month. As troughing across mid-latitude North America 
is generally forecast to expand westward later in the month, increased chances 
of below normal temperatures extends westward to the Upper Mississippi Valley 
and eastern areas of the Northern Plains. Additionally, with the transition to 
ENSO neutral conditions becoming more likely and with increased confidence of a 
negative AO continuing into much of February, mean below normal temperatures 
are favored for the Southeast, representing a change from the mid-month 
outlook. Conversely, increased chances of above normal temperatures are 
indicated for most of the western CONUS, with the greatest confidence (more 
than 50 percent chance) of warmer than normal conditions focused on parts of 
the Great Basin and adjacent areas of the Southwest. Above normal temperatures 
are most likely across the West early in the month before a potential 
significant pattern change during the middle of the month. Complicating matters 
is the potential of a cut-off low near the southwestern US early in the month. 
This cut-off low, should it materialize, may promote warm air advection ahead 
of it. Therefore, a slight tilt toward above normal temperatures also expands 
eastward to the Southern Plains, consistent with WPC's short term forecasts and 
CPC's 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks. Above normal temperatures are favored for 
the southern half of Alaska due to predicted ridging and above normal heights, 
especially during the first half of the month. 
 
Anomalous ridging forecast in early February leads to increased chances of 
below normal precipitation across much of the West from California to the Great 
Basin, Central Rockies, and Central Plains. As this ridge potentially breaks 
down toward the middle of the month, this may open the door to increased 
Pacific flow later in February. Therefore a slight tilt toward above normal 
precipitation is indicated from northern parts of the Pacific Northwest to the 
Northern Rockies. This slight tilt toward above normal precipitation also 
extends eastward across the Northern Tier to the Northern Plains and parts of 
the Upper Mississippi Valley, as multiple shortwave troughs and associated 
frontal boundaries are possible for these areas underneath predicted large 
scale cyclonic flow. Below normal precipitation is favored for parts of the 
Southeast, as predicted mean northerly mid-level flow inhibits widespread 
moisture advection into the area during the early to middle parts of February. 
Equal chances (EC) of below, near, or above normal precipitation is forecast 
for all remaining areas east of the Mississippi due to uncertainty regarding 
the details of the potential evolution of individual shortwave troughs within 
the predicted mean larger scale mid-level cyclonic flow pattern. A slight tilt 
toward above normal precipitation is indicated for parts of South Texas and the 
Rio Grande Valley, near the southern periphery of the predicted mean trough 
over eastern and central North America.  Above normal precipitation is also 
favored for the southern half of Alaska as moist southwesterly mid-level flow 
is forecast across the region for much of the month. 
 
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*****              Previous mid-month discussion below                   ***** 
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The February 2026 outlooks are issued against the backdrop of a La Niña 
Advisory and the potential emergence of an enhanced Madden Julian Oscillation 
(MJO) signal. La Niña conditions are present but are likely (75 percent 
chance) to transition to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral phase 
during the current January-February-March (JFM) season. The latest weekly Niño 
3.4 index was at -0.8 degrees Celsius, which is still in La Niña territory. 
However, at depth, a pool of warmer than normal water has been steadily 
expanding eastward from the western Pacific, consistent with a potential 
transition to ENSO neutral conditions. Meanwhile, the magnitude of the 
real-time multivariate MJO index has been increasing in recent days in the 
Western Pacific. By the start of February, most of the European Centre for 
Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble members predict this emerging 
MJO event to propagate to the Western Hemisphere/Africa or the Indian Ocean. 
Recent analysis of extratropical indices show that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) 
and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) have been mostly negative in early 
January (although both have trended closer to zero in the past few days). The 
Pacific North America (PNA) index has transitioned from the negative to the 
positive phase during the first half of January. Combined natural analog 
composites derived from the recent evolution of these tropical (ENSO and MJO) 
and extratropical (AO, NAO, and PNA) drivers depict a 500-hPa flow pattern 
dominated by anomalous ridging over the northeastern Pacific, off the west 
coast of North America. Downstream troughing is favored over the west-central 
CONUS while above normal heights are more likely across the Southeast. Weakly 
below normal heights are favored across the western Bering Sea. This combined 
natural analog composite is remarkably similar to trends  during the last 15 
years, which also favor increased ridging across the northeastern Pacific and 
the Southeast, and below normal heights over the northern tier of the 
west-central CONUS. Natural analog composites, trends , and dynamical guidance 
from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), North American Multi-Model 
Ensemble (NMME), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the 
Forecast Consolidation Tool (CON) (which includes both dynamical model input 
and statistical guidance) form the basis of the February outlooks. The latest 
CPC Weeks 3-4 Outlooks and associated ensemble guidance from the ECMWF, Global 
Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), and the CFSv2 also contributed. Antecedent 
conditions such as extratropical SSTs, sea ice extent, and snow cover anomalies 
were also considered where appropriate. 
 
Statistical guidance is supportive of potential widespread anomalous cold air 
outbreaks across much of the Lower 48 states during February. However, 
dynamical model guidance is much warmer, particularly across the southern 
two-thirds of the CONUS. This dichotomy between the colder statistical and 
warmer dynamical model guidance results in increased uncertainty in the 
February temperature outlook. However, given the strong agreement between 
recent trends , ENSO, MJO, and extratropical analogs  on the potential for 
anomalous cold across much of the northern and central CONUS, below normal 
temperatures are favored for much of these regions. The greatest confidence for 
below normal temperatures (40 to 50 percent chance) is indicated for the 
Northern High Plains, where statistical guidance shows the strongest signal. 
Conversely, statistical and dynamical model guidance are in good agreement in 
favoring above normal temperatures across the southeastern CONUS, with 
probabilities of warmer than normal conditions exceeding 50 percent across the 
Florida Peninsula. A second, but weaker, area of enhanced above normal 
temperature probabilities is posted for parts of the Southwest and Southern 
California due primarily to dynamical model guidance. Above normal SSTs off the 
west coast of the CONUS may also assist in increasing chances of above normal 
temperatures for coastal locations of Southern California. Enhanced 
probabilities of above normal temperatures were kept weak for this region as 
statistical guidance is much less supportive of increased warmth relative to 
dynamical model guidance. Above normal temperatures are favored across western 
Alaska due to very good support from statistical guidance. However, dynamical 
model support is relatively weak, so probabilities of above normal temperatures 
are only modestly increased. Conversely, below normal temperatures are weakly 
favored for most of Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the southeastern 
Mainland, consistent with C3S model output with some support from natural 
analog composites (especially across Southeast Alaska). 
 
Although the current La Niña is likely to transition to ENSO neutral at some 
point during JFM 2026, statistical and dynamical model precipitation guidance 
still generally reflect a La Niña signature for the month of February. Above 
normal precipitation is favored from the Northern Rockies, Northern High 
Plains, and parts of the Pacific Northwest southeastward to northern portions 
of the Central Rockies and Central High Plains. The greatest likelihood of 
above normal precipitation (greater than 50 percent chance) is indicated across 
parts of the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains, where both statistical 
and dynamical model guidance is in good agreement. A second region where above 
normal precipitation is favored is the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, adjacent areas 
of the interior Northeast, and the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley, 
consistent with La Niña Composites as well as with dynamical model guidance, 
especially the C3S. Typical of La Niña, below normal precipitation is more 
likely across the southwestern and southeastern CONUS. The forecast favoring 
drier than normal weather across these two regions has good dynamical model 
support from the NMME. Above normal precipitation is favored for all of western 
Alaska. Dynamical model guidance is in good agreement in depicting increased 
chances of above normal precipitation across northwestern Alaska while 
statistical guidance generally supports an extension of this signal southward 
to southwestern Alaska. Conversely, a tilt of probabilities toward below normal 
precipitation is indicated for Southeast Alaska and adjacent areas of the 
southeastern Mainland due primarily to dynamical model support, especially from 
the C3S. 
 
FORECASTER: Scott Handel 
 
The climatic normals are based on conditions between 1991 and 2020, following 
the World Meteorological Organization convention of using the most recent 3 
complete decades as the climate reference period.  The probability anomalies 
for temperature and precipitation based on these new normals better represent 
shorter term climatic anomalies than the forecasts based on older normals. 
 
The next monthly outlook...for Mar ... will be issued on Thu Feb 19 2026 
 
These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period. 
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