Climate Prediction Center - Week 3-4 Outlook

Prognostic Discussion for Week 3-4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Feb 14 2026-Fri Feb 27 2026

La Niña conditions are currently present, with equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) below average across the east-central and eastern Pacific, and above average in the western Pacific. Low-level wind anomalies were near average across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the same region. Enhanced convection and precipitation was evident over Indonesia, the Philippines, and northern Australia, while suppressed convection and precipitation was observed around the Date Line. There is a 75% chance of a transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026. ENSO-neutral is likely through at least the Northern Hemisphere late spring 2026. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal began quickly propagating eastward into the Western Hemisphere over the past week after amplifying in the Western Pacific. Both the GEFS and ECMWF show a rapid decrease in amplitude, with the signal entering the unit circle during Week-1 due to a strong Rossby wave crossing the Pacific and interfering with the signal. During Week-2, the models show very different solutions, with the ECMWF gaining some strength and continuing to propagate the signal into the Indian Ocean, and the GEFS remaining weak and moving back into the Western Pacific. The Weeks 3–4 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks are based primarily on operational dynamical model guidance, including the Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12), ECMWF, and Climate Forecast System Model version 2 (CFSv2), as well as the predicted evolution of the pattern from the Week-2 forecast.

Dynamical model 500-hPa height anomaly forecasts during Weeks 3–4 show a fairly consistent evolution from Week-2 forecasts. A blend of the ECMWF and GEFSv12 500-hPa height pattern forecasts, plus a contribution from the Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) height forecast based on the MJO RMM index, ENSO, and decadal trends, features a broad anomalous ridge over the Aleutians and western Mainland Alaska, extending southeastward to the Gulf of Alaska and California. Deep troughing with below-average 500-hPa height anomalies are forecast over the eastern contiguous United States (CONUS). A strong high-pressure block is forecast to establish over Greenland. Below-average height anomalies are forecast over eastern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska. Near- to above-normal 500-hPa heights are predicted over Hawaii.

Enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures are predicted over the southwestern CONUS, which are expected to remain persistent throughout the period. This is supported by a long-term warming trend, along with agreement between most of the dynamical temperature forecast tools and an experimental manual blend of GEFSv12, CFSv2, ECMWF, and the MLR tool. Below-normal temperatures are forecast across most of the northeastern CONUS and parts of the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley as well as the eastern portions of the Northern Plains, underneath a deep trough that is predicted over the region. Above-normal temperatures are favored over western Mainland Alaska and the Aleutian Islands, while below-normal temperatures are likely over parts of eastern Mainland Alaska, consistent with most of the temperature forecast tools. Above-average SSTs and agreement among dynamical models supports above-normal temperature probabilities over Hawaii.

The Weeks 3–4 Precipitation Outlook favors above-median precipitation over the Pacific Northwest, extending eastward to the Northern Great Basin, the Northern Rockies and western portions of the Northern Plains, consistent with a typical February La Niña signature, and supported by most of the dynamical precipitation forecast tools. Above-median precipitation is also likely over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in association with a trough predicted over the eastern CONUS. A majority of the dynamical guidance favors a tilt toward above-median precipitation over parts of southern Mainland Alaska and Southeast Alaska, due to the expected westerly flow. Based on a blend of calibrated dynamical models, the Precipitation Outlook for Hawaii leans toward above-median precipitation.

Forecaster: Luke He

The next week 3-4 outlook will be issued on Friday, Feb 06, 2026

These outlooks are based on departures from the 1991-2020 base period

These are three category outlooks consistent with what is currently used for the monthly and seasonal forecasts.

The shading on the temperature map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal (N) with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

The shading on the precipitation map depicts the most favored category, either above-normal (A), below-normal (B), or near-normal with the solid lines giving the probability ( >33%) of this more likely category (above, below, or near).

In areas where the likelihoods of 2-week mean temperatures and accumulated precipitation amounts are similar to climatological probabilities, equal chances (EC) is indicated.