Latest Monthly Assessment - Persistence is favored for nearly all of the ongoing drought areas during February based on a dry start to the month and high forecast uncertainty associated with an expected pattern change by mid-February. However, there are a few areas that are favored to have improving drought conditions. A major winter storm with heavy snowfall on January 31 and February 1 supports improvement or removal from the Southern Appalachians to parts of the eastern Carolinas. Late January precipitation combined with the expectation for additional precipitation during mid to late February results in a forecast of drought improvement and removal for parts of the Tennessee Valley and northern Louisiana. Farther to the south across Florida, drought persistence and development are likely. Improvement or removal is favored for parts of the Mid-Atlantic due in part to heavy precipitation during late January. A very low snowpack remains a major drought concern for much of the West, but any broad-scale drought development across this region is not anticipated until March or April. In addition, there are signs that the pattern could become more favorable for much needed snowfall later in February.



Alaska is likely to remain drought-free through the end of February, while a predicted wet month supports improvement and removal across Hawaii. Drought removal is also forecast for St Thomas and St John of the U.S. Virgin Islands due to unusual wetness during early February.



Forecaster: Brad Pugh



Next Monthly Drought Outlook issued: February 28, 2026 at 3:00 PM EST

Monthly Drought Outlook Discussion