MLB playoff odds are based on 25000 simulations of the rest of the season and playoffs. The team's estimated quality is determined by their performance over their last 100 regular season games (even if it spans seasons) and includes a regression to the mean factor. These results are based on standings through 2003-09-28. This page does not update during the postseason.

Most Likely Scenarios

Most Likely Scenarios Table
Lg Top Seed Division Winner Division Winner Wild Card
NLAtlanta BravesSan Francisco GiantsChicago CubsFlorida Marlins
ALNew York YankeesOakland AthleticsMinnesota TwinsBoston Red Sox
Playoff Odds Table
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
NL East
1Atlanta BravesNLE1.10.0101610.00.0101.061.0101-61101-61>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%61.1%32.6%16.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Florida MarlinsNLE0.70.091710.00.091.071.091-7191-71>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%47.7%24.3%11.3%0.0%+40.6%+72.2%
3Philadelphia PhilliesNLE0.50.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-32.5%-26.7%
4Montreal ExposNLE0.10.183790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-10.5%
5New York MetsNLE-0.30.066950.00.066.095.066-9566-95<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL Central
1Chicago CubsNLC0.10.088740.00.088.074.088-7488-74>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%38.9%15.8%6.0%0.0%+65.0%+77.8%
2Houston AstrosNLC0.60.087750.00.087.075.087-7587-75<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-70.0%-57.3%
3St. Louis CardinalsNLC0.00.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-29.5%
4Pittsburgh PiratesNLC-0.30.075870.00.075.087.075-8775-87<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.1%
5Cincinnati RedsNLC-1.20.169930.00.069.093.069-9369-93<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
6Milwaukee BrewersNLC-1.10.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
NL West
1San Francisco GiantsNLW0.80.0100610.00.0100.061.0100-61100-61>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%52.3%27.3%13.9%0.0%0.0%+0.1%
2Los Angeles DodgersNLW0.00.085770.00.085.077.085-7785-77<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-2.9%-8.0%
3Arizona DiamondbacksNLW0.20.084780.00.084.078.084-7884-78<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-18.1%
4Colorado RockiesNLW-0.70.074880.00.074.088.074-8874-88<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5San Diego PadresNLW-0.30.064980.00.064.098.064-9864-98<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
Current Remaining Average 90% Confidence Change
Tm Lg D SRS rSOS W L W L W L Best Worst Post WC Div LDS LCS Pennant Win WS 1 Day 7 Days 30 Days
AL East
1New York YankeesALE0.90.0101610.00.0101.061.0101-61101-61>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%63.9%31.1%16.4%0.0%0.0%+7.2%
2Boston Red SoxALE1.30.095670.00.095.067.095-6795-67>99.9%>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%53.0%31.7%17.7%0.0%+5.3%+29.9%
3Toronto Blue JaysALE0.30.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Baltimore OriolesALE-0.30.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Tampa Bay Devil RaysALE-0.10.063990.00.063.099.063-9963-99<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL Central
1Minnesota TwinsALC-0.30.090720.00.090.072.090-7290-72>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%36.1%11.6%4.4%0.0%+0.1%+67.8%
2Chicago White SoxALC0.90.086760.00.086.076.086-7686-76<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-0.1%-38.3%
3Kansas City RoyalsALC-0.40.083790.00.083.079.083-7983-79<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%-29.5%
4Cleveland IndiansALC-0.40.068940.00.068.094.068-9468-94<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
5Detroit TigersALC-2.20.1431190.00.043.0119.043-11943-119<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
AL West
1Oakland AthleticsALW0.80.096660.00.096.066.096-6696-66>99.9%<0.1%>99.9%>99.9%47.0%25.6%13.4%0.0%+1.8%+16.3%
2Seattle MarinersALW0.50.093690.00.093.069.093-6993-69<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%-7.1%-53.4%
3Anaheim AngelsALW-0.40.077850.00.077.085.077-8577-85<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
4Texas RangersALW-0.70.071910.00.071.091.071-9171-91<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%