Japan is mired in political paralysis, stuck in a rare prolonged period in which the president of the Liberal Democratic Party is not the prime minister.

This situation is known as “so-so bunri,” or a “premier-president split.”

The LDP and its new president, Sanae Takaichi, are rushing to remedy the situation as diplomatic and economic concerns intensify over the quagmire. They are now eyeing a solution in the Diet on Oct. 21. 

But a key political alliance has been shattered, and opposition parties are now jockeying for position for a possible power grab.

The situation has become so bizarre that some voices within the LDP are suggesting that Shigeru Ishiba should simply continue as prime minister while keeping the “so-so bunri” arrangement in place.

URGENT TASKS AWAIT

“No matter what, if we don’t hurry with measures to combat high prices, things will get dire,” Takaichi said on a television program on Oct. 9, two days after being officially appointed LDP president.

She indicated her intention to pass a supplementary budget and a bill to cut gasoline taxes at an extraordinary Diet session to address the most critical issue of inflation.

“We must hurry,” she emphasized.

After she won the LDP presidential election on Oct. 4, Takaichi was expected to be voted in as prime minister in an extraordinary Diet session and immediately form her administration, given the disunity among opposition parties at the time.

But things have changed.

What remains the same is the “diplomatic rush” facing whoever takes the helm of government.

Japan’s new leader is expected to make a “diplomatic debut” at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations conference in Malaysia, followed by hosting U.S. President Donald Trump in Japan on Oct. 27.

After the Japan-U.S. talks, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit will be held in South Korea, where leaders from various Asian countries are expected to hold talks.

Before all this can happen, Japanese lawmakers need to pick a new prime minister.

The extraordinary Diet session was initially scheduled for Oct. 15, but the LDP decided to push back the session after negotiations with its junior coalition partner, Komeito, ran into trouble.

In fact, on Oct. 10, Komeito announced that it was withdrawing from the coalition.

On Oct. 14, Yoshihiko Isozaki, chair of the LDP's Upper House Diet Affairs Committee, met with Yoshitaka Saito, his counterpart from the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, to convey a plan to convene the extraordinary Diet session on Oct. 21.

The CDP will consider the proposal and discuss it with other opposition parties.

Regarding the diplomatic schedule, senior Foreign Ministry officials have been informally briefing Takaichi. However, a ministry source said detailed discussions are “not progressing at all.”

The delay in forming a new government has also raised concerns about the economy. The Nikkei 225 index has also plummeted since Komeito’s announced split from the LDP.

It typically takes over a month to prepare a supplementary budget after the prime minister orders its compilation. Given the current situation, the Diet may not be able to pass an extra budget within the year.

On another television program, Takaichi admitted to being handcuffed under these circumstances.

“I am merely the LDP president, not the prime minister, so I cannot issue any instructions to government agencies, and our response has been delayed.”

RARE DELAY

Typically, “so-so bunri” periods last for only a few days because the Diet is convened to elect a new prime minister almost immediately after an LDP presidential election.

For example, the Ishiba administration itself was formed in 2024 just four days after he was elected LDP president. Fumio Kishida’s government started five days after his party election victory in 2021.

The current delay of at least two weeks highlights the deep-seated instability in politics.

NEW LIFE FOR LAME-DUCK GOVERNMENT

Amid this political vacuum, the government of Ishiba, who announced his resignation on Sept. 7, continues to exist.

Under Japan’s parliamentary Cabinet system, the prime minister is chosen from among Diet members, creating a structure in which the government and the ruling party work as one to advance policy.

The moment Takaichi was elected LDP president on Oct. 4, Ishiba lost his influence within the ruling party, even though he was still the prime minister.

The lame-duck Ishiba administration has effectively been unable to make any significant policy decisions.

Even after the LDP and Komeito dissolved the coalition on Oct. 10, Ishiba merely told reporters, “Right now, I myself am not the LDP president, so I am not in a position to comment on inter-party negotiations.”

However, supporters of Ishiba, who was ousted from the party leadership in an internal LDP revolt, see the current stalemate as an opportunity.

“Komeito leaving (the coalition) is an extraordinary thing,” one of Ishiba’s close Cabinet ministers said. “Since the circumstances have changed so drastically, if it’s theoretically possible, we hope to build momentum for Ishiba to remain prime minister under this ‘so-so bunri’ arrangement.”

But the reality is that Komeito’s departure from the coalition has made the very survival of the LDP government uncertain.

Ishiba stepped down essentially to take responsibility for the ruling coalition’s election losses that eliminated its majorities in both Diet chambers.

The LDP, which currently holds 196 seats in the Lower House, has drifted further away from securing a majority vote of 233 now that Komeito is on its own.

Without these votes, the LDP cannot guarantee it can elect Takaichi as prime minister.

Opposition parties appear to be moving to unify behind a single candidate, aiming to capitalize on the LDP’s weakness and prevent the LDP president from becoming prime minister.