Photo/Illutration Shinjiro Koizumi and Sanae Takaichi (The Asahi Shimbun)

The key issue in the race to lead the battered ruling Liberal Democratic Party is shaping up to be how to retain and regain conservative voters who have abandoned the party.

This would seem to favor Sanae Takaichi, 64, a former minister in charge of economic security who is considered one of the most conservative politicians in the LDP.

However, Shinjiro Koizumi, 44, the current farm minister who has shown a more liberal stance, appears to have scored an early victory in winning over conservatives in the party.

Takaichi and Koizumi are expected to be the top contenders in the LDP leadership election on Oct. 4 to succeed Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

The official campaign will start on Sept. 22.

After informing local supporters of his intention to run, Koizumi on the morning of Sept. 16 was asked by reporters at the farm ministry about his election strategy.

“It’s true that I asked Finance Minister (Katsunobu) Kato to serve as my campaign chief,” Koizumi said. “I’m very encouraged that he accepted.”

He had met privately with Kato the night before in Tokyo to confirm his campaign role in the election.

Koizumi moved quickly to secure Kato’s support largely because of his political background, particularly his close ties with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

Kato’s father-in-law, Mutsuki Kato, was a trusted aide to Abe’s father, Shintaro Abe, who once served as foreign minister and led the influential Seiwa-kai faction in the LDP.

Mutsuki Kato, a former farm minister, was a senior official of the faction.

Katsunobu Kato himself is part of Sosei Nippon, a conservative parliamentary group that had been led by Shinzo Abe before he was assassinated in July 2022.

Kato is widely regarded as a key figure among LDP conservatives.

Following the LDP’s crushing defeat in the Upper House election in July, party analysts concluded the loss stemmed from a drift of conservative support.

Many within the LDP now believe that “a candidate who can stop the conservative exodus will have the upper hand,” according to a young Lower House member.

Takaichi also met with Kato on Sept. 11 to explore a possible alliance. However, she did not receive a favorable response, despite her tight relationship with Shinzo Abe.

In the 2021 LDP leadership election, Takaichi ran for the first time with strong backing from Abe and gained the second-most votes from Diet members.

In last year’s party election, she ran again and made headlines by suggesting she might continue visiting war-related Yasukuni Shrine even after becoming prime minister.

She won the first round of voting but fell short of a majority. She lost in a run-off against Ishiba.

Despite failing to gain Kato’s support for the Oct. 4 election, Takaichi’s camp remains confident and has dismissed Koizumi’s strategy as “a double-edged sword.”

“Koizumi has consistently presented himself as a liberal,” a former Cabinet member said. “If his superficial approach is exposed, he risks losing support from both sides.”

At a news conference on Sept. 16, Koizumi was asked about his past advocacy for allowing married couples to take separate surnames.

He chose not to answer directly, saying: “Rather than making bold statements, it’s more important to first unify the party. Creating that kind of environment is crucial this time.”

The dual-surname issue has sparked fierce opposition from conservatives in the LDP, including Takaichi.

(This article was written by Nobuhiko Tajima and Yuta Ogi.)

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