A friend and a foe of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba are seen as the front-runners to succeed the lame-duck leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.

Farm minister Shinjiro Koizumi and Sanae Takaichi, former minister in charge of economic security, are expected to be the primary contenders when the LDP presidential election is held, likely on Oct. 4, party insiders said.

Koizumi, 44, who is close to Ishiba, has strong name recognition and communication skills.

Ishiba appointed Koizumi as agriculture minister in May after his predecessor resigned over a gaffe. Koizumi was tasked with bringing down soaring rice prices, a source of public dissatisfaction. 

Ishiba told reporters on Sept. 8 that there is no reason to keep someone in his Cabinet from running for the next LDP president. 

Many junior and mid-level lawmakers, who are worried about their own prospects in future Diet elections, expect Koizumi, whose father is former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, to serve as the party’s “face” in campaigns.

Takaichi, 64, who was close to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is known for her conservative political stance.

She is popular among lawmakers critical of Ishiba, including members of the former Abe faction, partly because the LDP identified the exodus of conservative supporters as a key reason for its defeat in the July Upper House election. 

Still, some influential LDP politicians worry that her leadership could deepen rifts with opposition parties. 

Ishiba had defied mounting pressure to resign despite the LDP’s crushing defeat in the Upper House election.

But many party lawmakers called for an emergency presidential election to replace him. The party was scheduled to vote on Sept. 8 on whether to hold such an election.

At a hastily arranged news conference on Sept. 7, Ishiba said he is stepping down to avert a “decisive division within the party” expected from the confirmation vote on an early election.

He said he will not run in the next leadership race.

According to The Asahi Shimbun’s reporting, more than 40 percent, or about 120, of the 295 LDP lawmakers, excluding the speakers of the two Diet houses, had decided to demand an early election by the afternoon of Sept. 7. Around 70 others remained undecided.

Among the LDP’s prefectural chapters, 18 had decided to demand an early election.

Toshimitsu Motegi, former LDP secretary-general, became the first politician on Sept. 8 to announce his candidacy in the next party leadership election.

“I want to dedicate everything I have to this country,” Motegi, 69, told reporters, saying the LDP is confronting the greatest crisis since its founding.

The LDP has been pushed into a minority government following heavy losses in two national elections held with Ishiba as party president.

Both Koizumi and Takaichi have refrained from commenting on their possible candidacies in a party leadership race.

Earlier, when the pressure on Ishiba to resign intensified, Koizumi was asked what he would do if a party election were held.

“I have nothing to say about a hypothetical question,” Koizumi told reporters on Sept. 3

The previous day, Takaichi told reporters, “I have not said whether I would run in a party leadership election.”

Still, Takaichi, a Lower House member, had told voters in her constituency of Nara Prefecture in the final stage of the Upper House election campaign: “I have been holding back from speaking out, but I have made up my mind. I will put the backbone back into the LDP.”

The remark was taken as a de facto declaration of her candidacy within the LDP.

In the previous LDP leadership election last September, Takaichi gained the largest number of votes among the nine contenders but fell short of a majority. She lost to the second-placed Ishiba in a two-way runoff.

Koizumi finished third. Motegi was ranked sixth.

Some LDP lawmakers back Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi or Takayuki Kobayashi, another former economic security minister, as the next LDP leader.

Hayashi, 64, who came in fourth last year, told reporters on Sept. 8 that he will consider whether to run by consulting with fellow lawmakers who supported his bid the last time.

Junior and mid-level lawmakers expect 50-year-old Kobayashi, who settled for fifth place last year, will put a new look on the LDP.

At a news conference on Sept. 8, LDP Secretary-General Hiroshi Moriyama said the party’s General Council on Sept. 9 will decide on who will be eligible to cast votes in the next leadership election.

The council is expected to opt for an official format involving not only lawmakers but also other party members and fraternity members nationwide, senior LDP officials said.

A separate committee meeting on Sept. 9 is expected to decide on the election date.

The LDP is arranging for an Oct. 4 election, with campaigning starting on Sept. 22, the party officials said.

Ishiba became prime minister on Oct. 1 last year. Just eight days into his tenure, the shortest interval in postwar years, he dissolved the Lower House for a snap election.

The LDP suffered a serious setback due in part to the fallout from the party’s money-in-politics scandal and became a minority government for the first time in nearly 30 years.

The Upper House election resulted in another major loss, making the LDP a minority ruling party in both Diet chambers for the first time since its founding in 1955.