As Japan braces for a future where foreign residents could comprise more than 10 percent of its population, on par with major Western countries, the government is set to overhaul its immigration policies, according to a recent report compiled by the justice minister.

With rising calls for tighter immigration controls and fears of societal division, the nation’s leaders are now considering possible limitations on new admissions and measures to ensure “social integration,” upon examination of how foreign nationals may impact social security, wages and public safety.

The government’s challenge is striking a balance between maintaining social cohesion and upholding foreign residents’ rights.

Moving forward, Japan intends to finalize a new approach through discussions at the Immigration Services Agency, expert panels and relevant ministerial meetings.

AVOIDING FRICTION

Justice Minister Keisuke Suzuki, who oversees the Immigration Services Agency, released a report on Japan's policy for accepting foreigners on Aug. 29, summarizing key discussion points to be addressed.

Remarkably, the report urges a fundamental policy shift, explicitly criticizing previous government responses as “reactive” and “lacking a unified strategy based on a medium- to long-term perspective.”

It states that now is the time to launch a thorough, government-wide examination of its policy in anticipation of a foreign resident ratio surpassing 10 percent.

An internal affairs ministry estimate posits there were 3,475,000 foreign nationals residing in Japan as of July, making up 2.8 percent of the total population.

According to the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, the 10 percent mark may be reached by 2070.

However, the report that Suzuki released indicates that this could happen much sooner.

The report proposes that one approach would be to develop economic growth scenarios based on the scale of foreign nationals accepted and investigate whether they will impact areas such as fiscal and social security systems, wages, education and public safety, as well as the extent of such impacts.

It identifies key tasks, including clarifying the roles of the central and local governments and creating “social integration" programs to mitigate societal friction. 

Quota caps on foreign nationals seeking visa statuses unrelated to "specified skills" and "employment training" from fiscal 2027 are also suggested. 

Also included is a method of “temporarily imposing entry restrictions when signs of friction exceeding tolerable levels appear.”

ELECTION, KAWAGUCHI CHANGED COURSE

According to multiple government officials, this report was initially intended as a “summary of key points” by a single minister overseeing the Immigration Services Agency.

However, after immigration policy emerged as a major topic in the July Upper House election, a shared sense of urgency arose within the government. The report then evolved from a ministerial summary into a document closer to a Japanese government policy proposal.

Suzuki took office in autumn 2024, coinciding with growing reports of tension between the Kurdish community and Japanese residents in Kawaguchi, Saitama Prefecture.

This sparked harsh statements on social media, including calls for Kurds to “leave Japan.”

Shortly after assuming his post, Suzuki dispatched young politicians to Kawaguchi to observe the situation firsthand.

Then, determined to prevent the kind of social division and political chaos seen in Europe, Suzuki launched a study group in February of this year.

Consulting about 10 immigration experts and coordinating with relevant ministries and the Cabinet Office, Suzuki and his team spent six months developing the latest report.

TRENDS IN EUROPE

The report warns that “as the proportion of foreign nationals increases, their impact on Japanese society will grow, and various challenges may become apparent in a complex manner.”

According to the 2024 International Migration Outlook report from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), immigrants accounted for 2.5 percent of Japan’s total population in 2023.

This figure was 13.8 percent in France, 15.2 percent in Britain and 18.2 percent in Germany. Japan counted foreign nationals in this data while the other nations counted those born abroad.

Some European nations with ratios of immigrants above 10 percent now face growing social divides.

Suzuki stated at a July lecture at the Japan National Press Club in Tokyo, “By around 2040, we must be prepared for the possibility that foreign nationals may exceed 10 percent of Japan’s population.”

LACK OF STATISTICS

The OECD periodically compiles data on immigrants in each country, using indicators such as educational background, employment status and health conditions.

However, according to the Japan Research Institute Ltd., the 2023 OECD survey included Japanese data for only 14 out of 68 relevant categories, ranking Japan last among OECD nations for statistical readiness.

This lack of information makes forming a comprehensive, mid- and long-term policy impossible.

Accordingly, Suzuki's report proposes creating economic growth scenarios based on the scale of foreigner acceptance and examining their potential impact on social security, wages, education and public safety.

In recent years, misinformation about international residents has spread on social media, often fueling hostility toward them. By presenting official data, the government also aims to encourage calm, fact-based discussions.

‘INTEGRATION’ KEY TO HARMONY

To prevent deep divisions and ensure successful coexistence with foreign residents, the report emphasizes the importance of “social integration” programs.

Junichi Akashi, a professor of immigration studies at the University of Tsukuba, said such programs may include guaranteeing access to Japanese language education and schooling, establishing a basis for employment through vocational training and other methods, as well as encouraging participation in local activities.

“From now on, (the government) should also consider the approach of accepting (immigrants) within the scope where their social integration is feasible,” he said.

The report also calls for examining mechanisms to temporarily restrict immigration when social friction exceeds acceptable levels.

“If social integration succeeds, society's capacity could expand in the long term, potentially increasing the number of immigrants that can be accepted,” Akashi said.