The ruling coalition headed by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba suffered a bruising defeat in the Upper House election. Voters essentially were asked to choose which side should control government.

Ishiba left no doubt he intends to remain in office. But having failed to attain the goal he set for the election and unable to obtain the confidence of voters for the second straight time following the disastrous 2024 Lower House showing, the logical step would be for him to resign.

There is no way a government that lacks the support of the people can stay in power for very long.

ISHIBA PLAGUED BY LOW SUPPORT

Even if Ishiba can maintain his administration, this election may mark a major turning point in postwar politics.

The emergence of political forces utilizing social media must be viewed as an expression of distrust and dissatisfaction with existing political parties.

This will also be a crossroads in determining whether xenophobia and populism will influence the future course of our nation.

After suffering a stunning defeat in last autumn’s Lower House election held shortly after taking office, Ishiba decided to cobble together a minority ruling coalition.

But the public has consistently taken a harsh view of the prime minister.

A national survey taken by The Asahi Shimbun soon after the Lower House election found Ishiba’s disapproval rating exceeded his approval rating. And that trend was never reversed in subsequent monthly polls.

In the June survey, the Ishiba Cabinet garnered only a 32 percent approval rating, while its disapproval rating was 52 percent.

Measures to deal with rising consumer prices were the focus of the Upper House election campaign.

The Liberal Democratic Party retracted its cash handout plan after it was roundly criticized by the public but revived it shortly before the start of the campaign.

In dealing with surging rice prices, Ishiba replaced the farm minister after an ill-advised comment. The government was seen as unable to implement any effective measure until Shinjiro Koizumi was named as the replacement farm minister and he decided to sell government stockpiled rice directly to retailers.

With such meandering and slow moves, it was not surprising that the confidence of the public slipped further away from the Ishiba Cabinet.

During the campaign, Upper House Budget Committee Chairman Yosuke Tsuruho of the LDP said, “Fortunately, there was an earthquake in Noto.” The comment was roundly criticized by those living in the disaster-stricken area as well as people elsewhere.

There was an insufficient attempt to investiagte funds accumulated by LDP factions that led to deep mistrust of politicians. There was also no move toward reviewing political donations from companies and organizations.

The harsh election results were directed not only at Ishiba, but at the entire LDP.

SPREADING XENOPHOBIA 

The LDP will mark the 70th anniversary of its founding in November.

Apart from two short periods in opposition, the LDP has consistently overseen government. It has ruled in coalition with Komeito for more than 25 years.

But the loss of support over the two most recent national elections would seem to indicate that the “shelf life” of the LDP as the ruling party has come to an end.

Thirty years have passed since the introduction of a Lower House electoral system combining single-seat districts with a proportional representation constituency to allow for a change of government.

Although the Democratic Party of Japan oversaw government for a roughly three-year period from 2009, the current political landscape is nowhere near the two-party system that was envisaged with electoral reform.

Voters critical of the government did not cast their ballots for the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan but dispersed their ballots across the opposition.

The Democratic Party for the People and Sanseito emerged as new political forces.

The DPP maintained its momentum from last year’s Lower House election when it made major gains under the slogan of increasing take-home pay.

Sanseito also made huge gains in seats five years after it was formed and calling for “Japanese First” policies.

There is significance in having various political parties enter the national scene as it reflects the diverse value sets held by the public.

But if only confrontation and fragmentation are deepened through criticism of politicians and existing parties, that could conversely lead to an even bigger disappointment in politics.

Led by Sanseito, policies concerning foreigners became a major focus of the Upper House election campaign.

Sanseito called for restrictions on entry as well as limiting use of the health insurance program and ending public assistance payments to foreigners.

We cannot ignore such arguments that foment discrimination and prejudice against foreigners.

In his campaign speeches, Sanseito leader Sohei Kamiya frequently made comments that could be taken as xenophobic or did not appear to be based on fact.

Media organizations raised doubts by fact-checking statements, but that did not appear to faze Kamiya.

He will now have to face questions about whether he is qualified to lead a party.

MAJOR ISSUES STILL PENDING

Having denied any intention to resign, it remains to be seen how Ishiba plans to manage government with only minorities in both chambers of the Diet.

Will he seek partial alliances, as he has done, to gain support for specific policies, or does he plan to expand the coalition framework or revamp its composition?

For their part, will the opposition parties exert pressure on the Ishiba administration and seek a change in government?

We call for a new structure based not simply on bringing together the number of seats needed, but one that will promote policies that benefit the public.

The cash handout plan to deal with rising consumer prices that was included in the campaign platforms of the ruling coalition will not likely gain the cooperation of the opposition parties.

On the other hand, calls by the opposition to cut the consumption tax rate cannot be said to have been compiled after careful consideration of the impact it would have, given that a huge revenue source would be needed to implement it.

There will be a need for calm discussions that extend beyond party lines.

Regardless of what government framework is decided on, a major issue that Japan cannot avoid is how to deal with U.S. President Donald Trump, including his reciprocal tariffs that are due to take effect from Aug. 1.

Issues left over from the last Diet session, such as a review of political donations from corporations and organizations as well as introducing a system allowing married couples to choose separate surnames, cannot be delayed much further.

Japan’s party politics will face a test of trying to find points of agreement as a multi-party structure takes shape with a few small and medium parties holding greater influence.

--The Asahi Shimbun, July 21