Vote counting in the Upper House election on July 20 continued into the early morning hours as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, are expected to see a drop in their number of seats from the 66 that were up for re-election.

The battle continues to rage as to whether the ruling coalition can maintain a majority in the 248-seat upper chamber, including the 75 seats not up for re-election this time around.

Among the opposition parties, the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is likely to retain its seats.

The Democratic Party for the People has quadrupled its number of seats, while Sanseito has made great strides and is on course to win at least 12 seats.

ISHIBA WON'T STEP DOWN

While waiting for the votes to be counted, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, also the president of LDP, expressed his intention to continue as prime minister.

However, his party's defeat in the second consecutive national election, following last fall's Lower House election, will inevitably lead to a growing debate within the party on whether the prime minister should step down.

When asked on a TV program on the evening of July 20 whether he would continue in office, Ishiba emphasized that the LDP is expected to be the party that may not hold the majority but still holds the largest number of seats in the Upper House.

With that, Ishiba said, “We must fulfill our responsibility to the nation and our responsibility as the ‘No. 1 party by comparison.’”

He clearly stated his intention to continue to serve as prime minister.

Ishiba is expected to hold a news conference at the party headquarters on July 21 to reiterate his intention to continue to stay in office, and to indicate how to run his administration in the future.

After that, he will begin to consider a Cabinet reshuffle and party executive appointments, and will hasten to rebuild the party's fortunes.

However, the goal he set for himself in the election was to secure a majority of seats in the Upper House for the ruling coalition, including seats not up for re-election.

Despite his failure to achieve this goal, Ishiba’s attempt to continue as party president and prime minister on the grounds that the LDP is the "No. 1 party by comparison” will inevitably lead to a growing movement within the party to “drop Ishiba.”

VOTER TURNOUT HIGHER THAN 2022

In the Upper House, a total of 125 seats were up for grabs. Of which, the number of seats up for re-election was 124 (74 from prefectural districts and 50 from proportional districts). In addition, there was a supplementary election for the Tokyo electoral district (one vacancy).

The Asahi Shimbun estimates that the turnout in the prefectural districts will be about 57.91 percent, which is higher than the 52.05 percent in the previous 2022 Upper House election.

Ishiba had set a low bar for victory for the election aiming for the ruling coalition to hold a majority of seats in the chamber, including seats that were not up for re-election.

The LDP and Komeito together had 75 seats that were not up for re-election this time. On the other hand, 66 seats (52 for the LDP and 14 for Komeito) were up for re-election.

Even if the ruling coalition were to lose 16 seats, it would only need to gain 50 seats to achieve a majority. Therefore, Ishiba’s target was criticized for being set “too low.”

Despite this, the voters’ distrust of the ruling coalition caused by the LDP’s political funds scandal and growing dissatisfaction and unease with the administration’s ability to manage the government did not go away.

During the election campaign, the LDP and Komeito proposed providing 20,000 yen ($135) to each citizen as a measure against high prices, but the proposal failed to gain traction.

RULING COALITION'S DISMAL RESULTS

The LDP’s dismal performance was conspicuous in the 32 prefectural districts where the number of seats up for election is one.

Meanwhile, Komeito lost seats in districts where there are multiple seats up for re-election.

Both the LDP and Komeito are also expected to lose seats in proportional districts.

If they fall below a majority in both the Upper and Lower houses, it will be extremely difficult for the current coalition to maintain power.

There has never been a case since the LDP was formed in 1955 in which the ruling party lost its majority in both houses and was able to maintain power.

CDP HOLDS THE COURSE

Meanwhile, the CDP approached the campaign by positioning the election as a “step” in a “hop, step and jump” toward a change of government.

The CDP has called for “a zero consumption tax on food products” as a measure against high prices and criticized the government’s stalled negotiations on tariffs with the United States.

The CDP is expected to retain the 22 seats that were up for re-election.

DPP CATERS TO WORKING-AGE VOTERS

The DPP, with the working-age population in mind, appealed to increase take-home pay through tax reductions.

The DPP has four seats up for re-election, but it is poised to significantly increase its number in this election.

SANSEITO SCORES WITH 'JAPANESE FIRST'

Sanseito, under the slogan of “Japanese First,” has appealed for restrictions on the influx of foreign nationals and against granting voting rights to foreigners.

As a receptacle for votes critical of the Ishiba administration, Sanseito has gained support in urban electoral districts and proportional districts.

Although only one seat was up for re-election among Sanseito members, a large increase in its number of seats is expected.

MINOR OPPOSITION PARTIES SCORE SUCCESSES 

Reiwa Shinsengumi has two seats up for re-election, but the possibility of increasing that number looms on the horizon.

Although Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) has struggled even after the launch of its new leadership in December, it has achieved its goal of “winning six or more seats.”

The Conservative Party of Japan has won its first Upper House seat.

OTHER OPPOSITION PARTIES FAIL TO MOVE THE NEEDLE

The Japanese Communist Party has seven seats up for re-election and is expected to fall short of retaining those.

The Social Democratic Party is battling to win at least one seat.