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For a long time, the victories and defeats in electoral districts where only one seat was up for re-election have determined the outcome of the entire Upper House election.

Traditionally, these electoral districts have been areas where the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has a strong support base.

However, according to exit polls conducted by The Asahi Shimbun on July 20, the LDP’s support base in these areas has thinned.

Moreover, it is noticeable that the LDP’s support base among independents is being eroded by Sanseito, a rising opposition party with conservative policies.

In districts where only one candidate is elected, the LDP has won a large majority over the opposition parties since its return to power in 2012.

Looking at the support for the political parties in all districts where only one candidate is elected, the LDP’s support rate was 49 percent in the exit poll conducted at the previous 2022 Upper House election.

This time, the rate dropped sharply to 30 percent.

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan was next at 14 percent, followed by Sanseito at 13 percent.

Looking at voting behavior by party support in the entire electoral districts where only one candidate was elected, 5 percent of the LDP supporters voted for Sanseito candidates.

In the previous Upper House election, the figure was 2 percent. This 5 percent figure is a small but slight increase in the percentage of the LDP supporters as a voting bloc.

Independents, who hold the key to the winner of prefectural districts, account for 16 percent of all districts where only one candidate is elected.

Of these independents, 22 percent voted for Sanseito candidates this time around.

This is almost as many as the 22 percent of independents who voted for CDP candidates and the 20 percent of independents who voted for LDP candidates.

In the last Upper House election, in prefectural districts where only one person was elected, 33 percent of independents voted for LDP candidates, 20 percent of CDP candidates, and 9 percent for Sanseito candidates.

It is notable that Sanseito increased its votes significantly this time, while the LDP suffered a decrease.

It is possible that some of the LDP supporters have shifted their support to Sanseito, and that Sanseito has captured some of the independents who had been leaning toward the LDP.

Of the 32 electoral districts nationwide where only one candidate was elected, less than half, or 15 districts, had a unified candidate from the main opposition parties—namely, the CDP, Nippon Ishin, the Japanese Communist Party, the Democratic Party for the People and Reiwa Shinsengumi.

This played a role in the solid performance of the CDP.

Looking at the voting behavior of independents in these 15 districts combined, the CDP was the most popular choice at 29 percent. Nonaffiliated opposition candidates also accounted for 18 percent.

However, in these 15 districts, 23 percent of independents voted for Sanseito candidates, and 21 percent of them voted for LDP candidates. This is despite the fact that there were unified candidates fielded by major opposition parties.

These numbers are not significantly different from the voting behavior of independents when viewed across the entire prefectural districts where only one candidate is elected.

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