THE ASAHI SHIMBUN
July 20, 2025 at 20:28 JST
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner, Komeito, are likely to fall short of the 125-seat majority in the Upper House, including seats not up for re-election this time, according to exit polls.
The LDP is expected to win around 34 seats in this election, according to the polls conducted by The Asahi Shimbun and other organizations.
Komeito is expected to win around seven seats. The ruling coalition may gain a combined total of 40-some seats, far short of the 66 they held prior to the election.
On the other hand, among the opposition parties, Sanseito and the Democratic Party for the People are gaining momentum and are expected to win around 20 seats each.
Exit polls were conducted among voters who had voted at 3,690 polling stations selected in 45 prefectural districts nationwide.
The LDP is likely to fall short of the 52 seats it held that were up for re-election.
Komeito is unlikely to secure its 14 seats that were up for re-election and it is uncertain if it will win a double-digit number of seats.
Among the opposition parties, Sanseito, which had one seat up for re-election, is expected to win around 17 seats in the Upper House in total for both prefectural and proportional districts. It is expected to gain around eight seats in the proportional districts, which is the largest among the opposition parties.
The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is looking to add to the number of its seats up for re-election and is likely to win around 24 seats.
The DPP, which had four seats up for re-election, is looking to achieve its goal of winning 16 or more seats.
Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) is likely to exceed the five seats up for re-election and may win around seven seats.
The Japanese Communist Party (seven seats up for re-election) is expected to win around three seats.
Reiwa Shinsengumi (two seats up for re-election) is expected to win around four seats.
The Social Democratic Party (one seat up for re-election) could take one seat in the proportional district.
The Conservative Party of Japan (zero seats up for re-election) could take two seats in the proportional district.
Among political organizations, Team Mirai is consolidating one seat in the proportional district.
Saisei no Michi (the Path to Rebirth) and the NHK Party still have the possibility to win seats.
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Opposition party battles helping LDP in 80% of electoral districts
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Survey: Ruling coalition at risk of losing Lower House majority
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Exit poll: Ruling coalition on way to lose majority in Lower House
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